What signals does the auto consumer market pick up?

【Economic interface】

"I really want to own my own car during the epidemic" "Beijing Shaohao's car purchase policy will give priority to car-free families", and the opportunity is coming"... Recently, car consumption has become a topic that people often talk about after a meal. People have even just bought a car they have long liked.

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in May 2020, my country's automobile production and sales situation continued to improve, with a chain growth, and the year-on-year growth rate was significantly higher than last month. What signals are released by these positive changes?

"This shows that the stabilization and expansion of automobile consumption policies issued by the central and local governments have gradually shown their effects. Auto companies have accelerated the resumption of production and production, residents' consumer confidence has been strengthened, and automobile consumer demand has been effectively released and replenished." Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said that China's auto market has greater room for development and potential, and auto consumer demand is still strong. As the domestic production and living order is fully restored, the various aid-aid policies have come to fruition, and my country's auto consumer market will continue to pick up steadily.

1. The growth rate of passenger car production and sales increased from negative to positive consumer confidence

【hot spot】

From June 1st, Beijing publicly solicited opinions on the optimization plan of the passenger car regulation policy. The optimization plan adds the index configuration method based on the individual participation in the common index wave and the new energy index waiting configuration method, and the index configuration method based on the "car-free family" as the unit for the signal sequence and the point ranking; In terms of aspects, we have given priority to “car-free families”.

  "Since the outbreak of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, China's auto industry has been hit hard and faced unprecedented challenges." Ye Shengji, chief engineer and deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that although the current situation is relatively severe, the overall difficulties are temporary With the gradual recovery of China’s economy and the orderly progress of the “six stability” and “six guarantees” work, the auto industry has gradually returned to normal, and the production and sales situation is developing in a good direction.

  In May this year, my country's automobile production and sales were 2.187 million and 2.194 million, respectively, up 4% and 5.9% from the previous month, up 18.2% and 14.5% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 15.9 and 10.1 percentage points higher than last month. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars completed 1.660 million units and 1.674 million units respectively, up 4.5% and 8.9% quarter-on-quarter, and up 11.2% and 7.0% year-on-year respectively. The growth rate has changed from negative to positive.

  In this regard, Ye Shengji analyzed that the reason for the recovery of the market is that the domestic epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, and the automobile industry has basically achieved full recovery and production. With the promotion of “combined boxing” by the state to boost domestic demand and promote consumption, consumer confidence has increased, and suppressed markets and consumption are gradually being released.

  With the development and application of new technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence, the performance and services of automobiles are constantly improving. "Our L3 level automatic driving system has completed tens of thousands of scene matching tests and 50 million kilometers of road tests." Zhu Huarong, president of Changan Automobile, said that in traffic congestion scenarios, the system can support unmanned driving up to 40 kilometers per hour. Experts believe that new technologies will make cars more "smart" and bring new consumption growth points.

  Ye Shengji said that due to downward economic pressure, Sino-US economic and trade frictions and some policy factors, residents were cautious about consumption, and the auto market is indeed declining. Since the outbreak, residents' consumer confidence has also been greatly affected. Therefore, it is necessary to vigorously stabilize employment and secure employment, boost consumer confidence, promote the continuous recovery and forward development of the automobile market, and then promote stable and healthy economic development, forming a virtuous circle.

  "Cities such as Beijing have a great demand for cars." Ye Shengji said that in the second half of this year, Beijing plans to issue 20,000 new energy indicators to "car-free households" at a time. Although it has a positive effect, it has objectively limited effects. All localities should implement the policy of steady growth and promotion fees issued by the central government to "relax" purchase restrictions, especially the policies for new energy vehicles should be greatly relaxed. At the same time, we must make more efforts in infrastructure construction such as urban planning, road facilities, traffic management, and parking lots to promote the coordinated development of automobile consumption and urban construction.

  Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher in the State Council Counselor's Office, said that at present, there is no surplus in my country's auto industry, and there is still demand in the market. The automotive industry chain is long, capable of pulling more than 150 industries such as steel, rubber, glass, leather manufacturing, and promoting employment. Therefore, the policy focus should be shifted from restricting car consumption to guiding the rational use of cars to solve problems such as congestion and improve urban governance.

2. The positive effect of the policy of new energy vehicle sales growth is obvious


Not long ago, after "90", Ms. Wang, an internet industry practitioner, spent about RMB 280,000 to buy a domestic Tesla Model 3 new energy vehicle. "I placed an order last year. The price was lowered some time ago. When I bought it, it was tens of thousands of dollars cheaper than before, which is quite cost-effective," she said. Experts believe that the localization of Tesla will bring about the "catfish effect" and promote the active participation of many new energy vehicle brands in my country.

  Like Ms. Wang, many people are paying attention to the development trend of new energy vehicles.

  Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that since the outbreak, the production and sales of new energy vehicles and traditional vehicles have been greatly affected. China has formulated a series of policies and measures to promote the development of new energy vehicles, in particular, the two policies of subsidizing new energy vehicles and exempting car purchase tax that were to be completed by the end of this year have been delayed for two years. The production and sales of energy vehicles increased.

  Judging from the current situation, the positive role of relevant policies is emerging. In May, my country's production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 84,000 units and 82,000 units respectively, up 3.5% and 12.2% sequentially, down 25.8% and 23.5% year-on-year. Compared with last month, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles have achieved growth.

  Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles in May continued the growth momentum, the situation of the new energy vehicle market is still very grim. Ye Shengji analyzed that the cost of new energy vehicles in my country is too high, the cost of batteries accounts for more than 40% of the cost of the entire vehicle, and the infrastructure such as charging piles is not perfect, and market consumption is affected. In addition, in terms of high-end products, many enterprises in my country have insufficient technical preparations and are somewhat out of touch with the market.

  "The new energy vehicle subsidy policy and other support policies should be combined with the advancement of industrialization to keep pace with the times." Ye Shengji believes that localities can introduce relevant policies to promote the development of new energy vehicles according to local conditions, promote industrial iteration, transformation and upgrading, and achieve high-quality development. Policies on road tolls, parking fees, and obsolescence of old vehicles (priority, preferential replacement of new energy vehicles) and other aspects should be fully implemented.

  Shi Minjie, an engineer at the Institute of Technology and Standards, China Electronics and Information Industry Development Research Institute, suggested that the requirements for technical investment indicators such as R&D investment intensity, new technology development and application of car companies should be added to the subsidy policy to guide enterprises to increase investment in technology research and development to make subsidies It really falls on the improvement of China's new energy vehicle technology. At the same time, accelerate the construction of a standard system for the entire industrial chain of new energy vehicles, take advantage of my country's large market scale, promote the standardization process, and control the initiative of standard setting.

  "We must encourage the development of different technical routes." Shi Minjie said that he supports the development of new business models such as "vehicle-electric separation" and encourages companies to further improve the safety and reliability of the entire vehicle. R&D and production have advanced underlying operating systems, electronic and electrical system architecture and intelligence New energy vehicle products with the characteristics of network and network.

  Miao Wei pointed out that in the future, he will pay close attention to the development of new energy vehicles, so that they have a better environment for use, so that more consumers are willing to choose new energy vehicles. From the supply side, we will further increase the reform of “decentralization management” and orderly liberalize the manufacturing of new energy vehicles; at the same time, we will implement a brand authorization pilot for R&D and innovative new energy vehicle companies. From the demand side, in addition to implementing fiscal and tax support policies, it will also encourage the development of electricity exchange models and encourage local governments to use new energy vehicles in the public service sector. From the usage side, we will continue to increase the construction of charging and swapping infrastructure, encourage the interconnection of various charging and swapping facilities, and encourage local governments to introduce preferential policies for the use of new energy vehicles, such as parking and traffic.

3. International supply chain risks are generally controllable, and opportunities for world cooperation are more

【status quo】

In May this year, Chinese brand passenger cars sold a total of 571,000 units, an increase of 0.4% year-on-year, accounting for 34.1% of total passenger vehicle sales, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Experts said that due to the epidemic, the demand in the automotive market has not yet recovered, and the market share of Chinese brand cars is declining, and the decline is not small, but the sales of some internationally renowned car companies are growing rapidly, which shows our brand strength and products. The power is not enough, and you should pay attention.

  "From a big automobile country to a strong automobile country, Chinese brand cars must be stronger and bigger. This is the foundation." Ye Shengji said that brand influence is not formed overnight, and needs continuous cultivation and accumulation. However, we must also realize that in the era of big data, the cycle of cultivating a brand may be greatly shortened. As long as the product is excellent, the performance is excellent, and the quality and reliability are excellent, consumer perception will quickly form.

  Ye Shengji said that in the future development process, relevant companies in China should practice their internal skills, learn more from internationally renowned brand car companies, work hard to break through key core technologies, work hard on quality and reliability, and continuously improve brand influence and Product competitiveness. After decades of development in my country's auto industry, especially after more than 40 years of reform and opening up, the industrial system is relatively complete. Some key enterprises have achieved good results in improving product quality and brand reputation. We are fully confident of the future development of Chinese brand cars.

  At present, the epidemic situation is still spreading around the world, which has a huge impact on human production and life, and the development of the world economy and society. It is necessary to pay more attention to the changes in global epidemic prevention and control and industrial development.

  "Affected by the epidemic, there are certain risks in the international automotive supply chain." Ye Shengji said that from the current tracking situation, the overall risk of the international supply chain is still controllable. In the future, we will further track the international epidemic situation, take relevant measures in a timely manner, and strive to respond to ensure that the industrial chain and supply chain are safe and controllable.

  Miao Wei emphasized that the epidemic has caused a great impact on the global automotive supply chain, the automotive market has experienced a sharp decline, and the industrial structure is facing adjustments. How to properly respond requires in-depth thinking and co-consideration of countermeasures. The automotive industry is a typical international and market-oriented industry. The epidemic has no borders. The global automotive supply chain has no borders. Industry companies should work together to strengthen cooperation and jointly respond to the challenges of the epidemic. The Chinese government will unswervingly expand opening up, continue to optimize the business environment, promote high-quality economic development, and provide more opportunities for cooperation to the world.

(Reporter Liu Kun)