The global air transportation market began to recover after the spring collapse caused by the coronavirus. This is evidenced by the data tracking service Flightradar aircraft.

So, as early as mid-January 2020, international airlines carried out an average of 176 thousand flights per day. However, in April, against the backdrop of the introduction of quarantine measures in most states and the massive closure of borders, the indicator collapsed almost three times and reached 64 thousand.

At the same time, in May, as the restrictions were gradually lifted, world air traffic began to grow again, and by mid-June the average number of flights per day exceeded 119 thousand. Thus, by now the market has recovered by almost 67% of the pre-crisis level.

“Due to the relaxation of quarantine measures, states around the world have begun to open borders. As a result, flights are getting better, and passengers are becoming more mobile. In addition, recently recently began to fly aircraft that originally transported passengers, but were re-equipped for freight traffic. There are now about 10% of the total number of all aircraft flying today. This is a good help for the growth of cargo transportation, ”said Anton Nowov, head of the air transportation department of the AsstrA group of companies, to RT.

According to him, in the current conditions, by the end of 2020, the global aviation market will be able to recover by 80%. At the same time, the final rehabilitation of the industry may take several years. This was said in a conversation with RT by the head of the analytical research department of the Higher School of Financial Management Mikhail Kogan.

“According to airline executives, it may take two to three years to fully recover demand. According to polls, many people are still afraid to fly. Moreover, if in April - during the peak of the pandemic - about 60% of travelers were ready to return to air travel within a few months, then by the beginning of June there were less such daredevils - 45%. Most respondents are ready to change their position only six months after the end of the pandemic, ”the expert noted.

According to the forecast of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), as a result of the financial consequences of the coronavirus, 2020 may be the most difficult year in aviation history. Thus, the expected amount of airline losses for the year is estimated at a record $ 84.3 billion.

However, according to IATA analysts, if the second wave of coronavirus does not follow, then “the worst is over for world aviation”. Moreover, the emerging recovery in the air transportation market could accelerate the recovery of the global economy.

“About 10% of global GDP is tourism, which in turn is largely dependent on air traffic. If people can safely fly again, this will give the economy a powerful impetus to development, ”said Alexander de Juniak, IATA Director General.

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A further increase in air passenger traffic may also support the growth in global demand for fuel and lead to an additional increase in oil prices. This point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artyom Deev.

“Aviation and motor vehicles are the main consumers of petroleum products. Naturally, the pandemic hit these sectors in the first place. As a result, fuel consumption in different countries decreased by 80–90%, and the total world demand in April fell by 85%. The opening of borders and the removal of restrictions on the movement of the population immediately increased the demand for fuel. Therefore, in particular, oil prices began to rise, ”Deev explained.

Against the backdrop of the lifting of quarantine measures, the International Energy Agency (IEA) improved its forecast for oil demand in 2020. According to the organization’s latest report, according to the results of the year, energy consumption in the world will decrease by 8.1 million barrels per day. Earlier, the IEA expected a decrease of 8.6 million.

As demand recovered and the OPEC + transaction was simultaneously completed over the past month, the price of Brent crude rose from $ 32–33 to $ 40–41 per barrel. This is evidenced by the ICE exchange in London. At the same time, analysts highly appreciate the likelihood of further rising prices of raw materials by the end of the year.

“In the near future, depending on the speed of restoration of cross-border movement and the use of vehicles within countries, we should expect an increase in oil prices to $ 43-45 per barrel,” concluded Artyom Deev.