5.44 trillion yuan of credit bonds issued in the first 5 months
According to the latest statistics from Dongfang Jincheng, in May, the issue of credit bonds was 753.5 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 191 billion yuan, a decrease of 851.8 billion yuan and 645.7 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 204.9 billion yuan and 168.9 billion yuan year-on-year. In May, the issuance of credit bonds contracted month-on-month and continued to increase year-on-year but the growth rate slowed down.
In the first five months of this year, the issuance of credit bonds was significantly increased, with a cumulative issuance of 5.44 trillion yuan and a cumulative net financing amount of 2.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 47.3% and 180.3% year-on-year respectively. In the opinion of the industry, this is mainly due to the relatively abundant monetary environment and the strengthening of policy support. Credit bonds have experienced a spurt growth in March and April.
At the end of March, the executive meeting of the State Council requested that the net financing of corporate credit bonds be increased by 1 trillion yuan over the previous year. This means that the annual issuance of credit bonds will continue to grow at a relatively fast pace. The bond issuance supervision system has also ushered in reforms, including the implementation of the bond issuance registration system and the improvement of the hierarchical classification management mechanism for issuers in the inter-bank market, which has also created good conditions for the issuance of credit bonds. With the growth of the issuance volume, the interest rate of credit bond issuance has also dropped significantly. In the first 5 months, the average interest rate of credit bond issuance fell by about 76 basis points.
Since May, the issuance of credit bonds has shrunk sharply. Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that this aspect stems from the seasonal impact of the "Supplementary Annual Report"; on the other hand, due to the rise of the capital interest rate center in the month, the bond secondary market yields have been adjusted upwards significantly The weighted average issuance rate is mostly up, and the proportion of bonds cancelled or postponed is increased.
Next, how will the pace of credit bond issuance change? Sun Binbin, chief analyst of fixed income of Tianfeng Securities, believes that the overall maturity of credit bonds in the second half of 2020 is relatively large, and the bond issuers’ demand for new bonds is still relatively large. The future credit market issuance environment will mainly depend on the overall funding.
On June 15, the central bank contracted for 200 million yuan in medium-term loan facilities (MLF). In the near future, the market will usher in the intensive issuance of special national bonds. With the increase in supply, it is also the focus of all parties concerned whether the capital will be greatly affected.
The clear bond research team of CITIC Securities believes that from the perspective of the positive cooperation of "fiscal + currency", there is no need to worry too much about the funding. Assuming that local bonds will no longer increase in the second half of June, and will give way to special government bonds, then the net probability of government debt financing in June will not exceed 640 billion yuan. This figure is not Not big. As the central bank's policy intention to maintain reasonable and sufficient funds is obvious, it is expected that the disturbance of the funds issued by the special national debt is generally controllable, and there is no need to worry too much.
"The rhythm of the subsequent issuance of credit bonds is expected to gradually recover." Wang Qing believes that since June, the central bank has continuously carried out reverse repurchase operations but has not lowered the policy interest rate, or it shows that the current interest rate level is within the central bank's consensus range, and the next stage of capital interest rate fluctuations The hub will remain stable. At the same time, after a sharp fall at the end of May and early June, the bond market in June is expected to be in a range volatility state, and there is little risk of further substantial adjustments in the credit bond market. From the perspective of bond issuance, since May, the tightening of funds and the strengthening of the central bank's supervision of financial idling have affected credit bond issuance and net financing to a certain extent. However, in the next stage, the capital interest rate fluctuation center will remain stable and the “wide credit” will be further strengthened. In the short term, the financing environment of the bond market will not be significantly tightened. Under this background, the subsequent issuance rhythm is expected to gradually recover. (Economic Daily News-China Economic Net reporter Chen Guojing)