National economy continued to recover in May

The main economic indicators continued to improve, and the added value of industries above designated size in the country increased by 4.4% year-on-year; the production index of the service industry increased from negative to positive by 1.0% year-on-year

  The National Bureau of Statistics announced the national economic performance in May: Overall, the main economic indicators continued to improve in May, and the economic performance continued to recover. Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the May data, the results of the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development continue to show, positive factors are gradually increasing, and the economy continues to show recovery, which is generally in line with expectations.

  The Beijing News yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the national economic performance in May. Overall, the main economic indicators continued to improve in May, and the economic operation continued to recover.

  Judging from the main indicators, in May, the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points faster than in April; the national service industry production index changed from a decrease of 4.5% in April to an increase of 1.0% year-on-year, from negative Turned positive; the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3137.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points less than that in April; the total value of imports and exports of goods was 2,469.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, of which exports maintained growth and the trade surplus continued to expand.

  In terms of people's livelihood, in May, national consumer prices rose by 2.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from April; and a decrease of 0.8% from the previous month. The national unemployment rate in urban surveys was 5.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from April; from January to May, the country’s urban employment increased by 4.6 million, an increase of 1.37 million compared with the same period last year.

  The resumption of production of enterprises continued to advance, and a rapid survey by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the proportion of enterprises above designated size in the industrial, construction, and service industries that reached more than half of the normal production level from the end of May to the beginning of June increased by 2.9, 9.2, and 7.5 percentage points respectively from the end of April.

  Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the May data, the results of the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development continue to show, and the work of resuming production, resuming business and resuming the market has been comprehensively promoted, production demand has continued to improve, and employment prices have generally remained stable Positive factors have gradually increased, and the economy continues to show a recovery trend, which is generally in line with expectations.

  ■ Interpretation

  Whether the economy can turn positive in the second quarter depends on June

  Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that although the main indicators continued to improve in May, many indicators were lower than the level of the same period last year from the month, and most indicators were still declining from the cumulative point of view, indicating that the loss of the epidemic impact still needs to be compensated. The economy has not returned to normal levels.

  However, from the perspective of the second quarter, with the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the demand for production has continued to improve, and positive factors have increased, including industrial added value, service industry production index, total retail sales of social consumer goods, fixed Compared with the first quarter, major indicators such as asset investment have improved significantly.

  Fu Linghui believes that there are both favorable factors and difficult challenges in the economic recovery in the second quarter. Whether economic growth can be turned right depends on the economic recovery in June.

  After analyzing the situation, Fu Linghui said that my country has a good foundation and conditions to promote sustained economic recovery. On the one hand, the steady recovery of the economy is obvious. Resumption of work, production, and resumption of the market are powerful and effective. The industrial service industry has achieved growth. The decline in consumer investment has continued to narrow. Market expectations are generally stable. On the other hand, the effects of macro policies continue to show. For example, this year's new burden reduction for enterprises is expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, and 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic government bonds will be issued. These policies will continue to support later economic recovery. In addition, new kinetic energy continues to grow. The digital economy is fully accelerating, intelligent and technological products are growing rapidly, remote offices, online education, online consultation and other rapid expansions, and new models such as unmanned retailing and live streaming have emerged, which will effectively support economic development.

  Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Times Securities, told the Beijing News reporter that in May, the retail sales of goods was 2,895.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.8% year-on-year, and the retail sales were close to the same period last year. However, the catering revenue still fell by 18.9% year-on-year, with more room for repair . In the absence of a large-scale secondary outbreak of domestic epidemics, future consumption is expected to continue to improve, mainly due to the large gap between catering and retail sales of goods below the limit from the normal level before the epidemic. As consumers panic gradually recedes, In the future, this part of consumption still has room for compensatory repair.

  Pan Xiangdong believes that with pure domestic demand and policy support, investment in infrastructure and real estate may continue to promote investment growth. At present, the real estate and infrastructure investment in fixed asset investment is the first to repair. The main reason is that after the epidemic has improved, the construction industry hastened to speed up, coupled with the extremely loose monetary policy and increased fiscal policy, the monthly growth rate of real estate and infrastructure has returned to Relatively normal level.

  ■ Response

  "600 million people per capita income of 1,000 yuan per month" has data confirmed

  "600 million people per month per capita income of 1,000 yuan" recently caused heated discussion, Fu Linghui explained the data source, "600 million people per capita income of 1,000 yuan per month" can be confirmed from the national household income and expenditure and living conditions survey data.

  According to the household income and expenditure survey, the national household sample can be divided into five equal parts, namely the low-income group, the lower middle income group, the middle income group, the upper middle income group, and the high-income group, each accounting for 20 %. Among them, the number of households in the low-income group and the lower middle-income group accounted for 40% of all households.

  According to relevant data in 2019, a total of 40% of the households in the low-income group and the lower-middle-income group correspond to a population of 610 million people, with an annual per capita income of 11,485 yuan and a monthly per capita income of nearly 1,000 yuan. Among them, the monthly per capita income of low-income groups is less than 1,000 yuan, and the monthly per capita income of lower-income groups is higher than 1,000 yuan.

  Fu Linghui said that these figures reflect the main contradictions in our society pointed out by the 19th National Congress of the Party: the contradiction between the people’s growing needs for a better life and the imbalanced and inadequate development, which reflects the basic national conditions of our country.

  "China is still the largest developing country in the world. The income levels of a large number of residents in rural areas and the central and western regions are still low. The task of poverty alleviation and rural revitalization is very arduous. At the same time, it should also be noted that with the continuous development of our economy, There will be more and more low-income and lower-middle-income groups transformed into middle-income groups. China's domestic market has great potential, and there is no end in development." Fu Linghui said.

  Beijing News reporter Jiang Huizi Pan Yichun