DECRYPTION
Emmanuel Macron spoke to the French on Sunday at 8 p.m. to open a new phase of deconfinement. He spoke of the economic situation in France, which was heavily affected by the consequences of the health crisis. While 500 billion euros have been invested to support the most troubled sectors, the head of state has ruled out raising taxes and has pledged to rebuild "a strong, ecological, sovereign and united economy" . Jean Pisani-Ferry, economist and program director of the candidate Macron in 2017, decrypts these announcements on Europe 1, oriented towards the future. Above all, "you have to be innovative," he believes.
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Find a solution for debt
The economist is delighted at first of the abandonment of an increase in taxes to mop up the expenses made during the health crisis. "We must surely not raise taxes now, this is the mistake we made in 2011: raising taxes too early. It has broken the recovery," said the economist. "Now will we get by without defining who will pay in the long run and how? No, of course. There will be an addition, we will have to pay it. The advantage we have is that has a very low interest rate, so we can push it back, but it will arise when the time comes. "
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Jean Pisani-Ferry warns, however, about the viability of this solution in the long term. Indeed, if money is "worthless" now, debt remains an option far from being miraculous. "When we renew this debt, at some point interest rates will be higher," he said. "But for the moment, we are lucky, let's take advantage of it."
Regain autonomy, on a European scale
In his speech, Emmanuel Macron mentioned "the flaws, the weaknesses" of the country, in particular its economic dependence on other countries of the world. "We were a country that had a drug industry, pharmaceutical laboratories, a system that worked. And we discovered that this system was not able to respond quickly to the emergency," says Jean Pisani-Ferry. "The idea that we can buy anything we want at any time on the world market and that it is our security is not true. We must draw the consequences."
"Are we going to relocate everything? Obviously not," nuances the economist, who is betting more on a system of autonomy on a European scale. Security mechanisms between countries would ensure supplies. Solidarity which remains complex to implement, and which requires the agreement of the States. But for Jean Pisani-Ferry, there is really no other solution to regain more sovereignty. "Rebuilding an old-fashioned economy in the French context would cost us an astronomical amount. It would be a drop in purchasing power additional to that already experienced, we don't need that."
Support youth employment
the head of state also announced on Sunday a "massive investment in education, training and youth jobs". "When a generation enters the labor market under similar conditions, they risk paying it for a long time, not just the year they arrive," laments Jean Pisani-Ferry, who talks about several solutions to reduce the weight on young people. . "First of all, to those who are still studying and who can train for another year, it can be useful if they can do it. And we have to help the employment of young people."
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The economist evokes the situation of certain students, who dropped out during this period of confinement and distance education. Young people entering the job market could help them, in the form of tutoring contracts. An exchange of good practices followed by training that could allow the most troubled individuals to bounce back better.
Do not go back "on old fantasies"
"The only answer is to build a stronger sustainable economic model, to work and produce more so as not to depend on others," said the President of the Republic. The wording made some people tick, in particular the "work more". "We must not dismiss anything but we must not go back on the old fantasies", cuts the economist who deplores an eternal battle between the supporters of the end of the 35 hours and those of the return of the ISF. "We need to be a little more imaginative."
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"The ambition [of Emmanuel Macron, note] is measured by the fact that he has less than two years left before him, his political capital is weakened and therefore he cannot formulate a very ambitious program for two years. needs two useful years. France cannot allow a government with the scull, "concludes Jean Pisani-Ferry.