China News Service, June 15th. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the operation of the national economy in May on the morning of the 15th. In response to questions from the media, Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said whether economic growth in the second quarter can be turned positive depends on 6 How was the economic recovery in the month.
A question was raised: In the second quarter, the resumption of production and business resumed and continued to advance. The PMI of China's manufacturing industry has been above the gloomy line for three consecutive months. Can the economic growth in the second quarter be positive? The recent rebound of the Beijing epidemic will have an impact on the national economic recovery in the next stage?
Fu Linghui said that since the second quarter, with the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the demand for production has continued to improve, and positive factors have increased. The main indicators have improved significantly compared with the first quarter. From January to May, the added value of industries above designated size decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, which was 5.6 percentage points narrower than that of the first quarter. Among them, April and May had two consecutive months of positive year-on-year growth; the service industry production index fell by 7.7%, narrowing by 4.0 Percentage points, of which positive growth was achieved in May; total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 13.5%, narrowing by 5.5 percentage points; fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) fell by 6.3%, narrowing by 9.8 percentage points.
However, it should also be noted that overseas epidemics have raged and the world economy and trade have shrunk severely. In the second quarter, the WTO barometer index for trade in goods was 87.6, a record low; the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicted that global merchandise trade in the second quarter would fall by 26.9% compared with the first quarter. At the same time, domestic contact-gathering consumption is restricted, the manufacturing industry has insufficient investment motivation, and enterprises have difficulties in production and operation. From January to May, manufacturing investment fell by 14.8% year-on-year; from January to April, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 27.4%. Recently, the epidemic situation in some parts of the country has changed, and the impact on the economy is still uncertain.
The above situation shows that there are both favorable factors and difficult challenges in the economic recovery in the second quarter. Whether economic growth can be turned right depends on the economic recovery in June.
Fu Linghui believes that from the later stage, there is a good foundation and conditions for promoting sustained economic recovery. First, the steady recovery of the economy is obvious. Resumption of work, production, and resumption of the market are powerful and effective. The industrial service industry has achieved growth. The decline in consumer investment has continued to narrow. Market expectations are generally stable. Second, the effects of macro policies continue to appear. This year's new burden reduction for enterprises is expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, 1 trillion yuan of anti-epidemic special treasury bonds is issued, 1 trillion yuan of new fiscal deficit is added, and monetary and credit support is increased. These policies will continue to support later economic recovery. The third is that the new momentum continues to grow. The digital economy is fully accelerating, intelligent and technological products are growing rapidly, remote offices, online education, online consultation and other rapid expansion, new models such as unmanned retailing and live broadcasts are emerging, which will effectively support economic development.
In the next stage, we must make good use of these favorable conditions, thoroughly implement the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee, implement the requirements of the "Government Work Report", further carry out the "six stability" work, implement the "six guarantees" task, and urge the national economy to recover steadily.