Iraq-United States strategic dialogue: Baghdad between hammer and anvil

Text by: Sami Boukhelifa Follow

What room for maneuver does Iraq have when the strategic dialogue between Baghdad and Washington begins this Thursday, June 11? The objective of these discussions is to redefine relations between the two countries, with a central question: the presence of American troops in Iraq. This dialogue is also taking place under the suspicious eye of the Iranians.

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For years, Iraq has been at the heart of a struggle for influence. On the one hand, the Americans; on the other, the Iranians. Each defends its own interests: petroleum, economic, military or ideological presence. Faced with this, Iraqi officials have their hands tied. "  We cannot dialogue as equals with the Americans,  " regrets Ihssan Shamary, professor of political science at the University of Baghdad. “  The United States is a great power which already partially controls Iraq. The Iraqi Prime Minister must play a balancing act. Mostafa Al Kazimi must not appear as the enemy of Iran, and at the same time he must not pass for a responsible subservient to the Americans,  "analyzes this specialist.

Tehran puts Baghdad under pressure

In anticipation of the strategic dialogue started this Thursday between Baghdad and Washington, Iranian officials have increased visits to Iraq in recent weeks. Esmail Qaani, head of the Al Quds force, the elite unit in charge of Iran’s external operations, went to Baghdad for an official visit, the first of its kind. Iran's new strongman is the replacement for General Qassem Soleimani, who was eliminated by the Americans in late 2019 near Baghdad airport.

"  Through this visit, Tehran clearly puts Iraqi officials under pressure,  " said Firas Elias, an expert on Iran-Iraq relations. "  Iran says to the Iraqi authorities:" Take advantage of this strategic dialogue to demand the departure of the American troops present on your territory ",  " decrypts the young researcher. “  Unfortunately, Iraq has neither sovereignty nor decision-making power. And Iran has an armed arm in our country: the Iraqi Shiite militias. If this strategic dialogue takes a turn that does not suit Tehran, Tehran can cause chaos in Iraq,  ”he fears. These Iranian-sponsored Shiite militias regularly target American positions, such as the United States Embassy, ​​located in the green zone in Baghdad.

"Let them go kill each other elsewhere"

Since October, the Iraqi street has been shouting loudly for its desire for "independence". One of the main demands of the youth is the departure of all the foreign forces present in Iraq. "  Americans and Iranians, take advantage of the wealth of our country  ", denounces Ali from Basra. This oil city in the south of the country is one of the cradles of popular Iraqi protest.

However, the young protestor advocates caution. "  American troops must leave Iraq, but their departure must be through dialogue, not by force,  " said the 30-year-old. “  The Iranian presence is more complex. Iran has raised on our territory an army composed of Iraqi citizens who are in its pay. The supreme Iranian guide wants to wage war against the Americans on our soil but in the event of conflict it is the Iraqis who will be killed. Let them go and kill each other elsewhere,  ”said the young man.

Hopeless dialogue?  

Health crisis obliges, this strategic dialogue between Baghdad and Washington took place via videoconference. No one knows how long these discussions will last. The idea is to reopen a communication channel between Iraq and the United States. Their relationship has deteriorated considerably, especially during the mandate of the previous Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi, considered by certain Iraqi specialists as "the man of Tehran". The new head of government Moustafa al-Kazimi is seen as close to the Americans. But there is little chance that this process of dialogue will lead to any change.

US troops returned to Iraq in 2014 at the request of Baghdad to fight the jihadists of the Islamic State group. Washington now has more than 5,000 men in the country. Iran, for its part, is only consolidating its presence in Iraq. Although officially the Shiite militias have been integrated into the Iraqi army under the authority of the Prime Minister, in fact they receive their orders directly from Tehran. They control the political, economic and social life of the country.

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• Iraq
• United States
• Iran