(Economic Observation) Will the floods in the south stimulate the price of agricultural products? Expert answers
China News Agency, Beijing, June 10 (Reporter Chen Suo) Since June, the strongest rainfall in southern China has occurred since flooding. Compared with the same period of the year, this year's southern rainfall has a long duration and high intensity, and the rainfall is too much 1 ~2 times, severe floods occurred in some areas, and crops in many places were affected. Will continued heavy rainfall in the south stimulate agricultural product prices?
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Emergency Management of China, as of the afternoon of June 9, the floods in the south caused an area of 145.9 thousand hectares of crops in 11 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in Guangxi, Guizhou, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Fujian. As a result, crops such as tea and pepper have been affected to varying degrees, and some breeding facilities have been washed away.
The Guosen Securities research report pointed out that from the impact of the flood disasters on China's CPI (Consumer Price Index) in previous years, it can be seen that if the flood situation is severe, it will have a certain impact on domestic commodity prices, of which crops have the most significant impact.
The reporter noted that, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average pork price in the national agricultural wholesale market has risen from May 28 to RMB 38.55 (RMB, the same below) for several consecutive days, and has risen to RMB 40.72 by June 9. The time coincides with the duration of the southern rainstorm.
Talking about whether the flood disaster in the south will cause the price of agricultural products to rise, Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the China News Service that generally there are various natural disasters every year. The impact time is short, and it has little impact on agricultural production throughout the year. "In 1998, China experienced a major flood that was not encountered for a hundred years, but that year also achieved the highest grain output in history."
In terms of specific types of agricultural products, Li Guoxiang said that the south mainly produces rice. Due to the growing environment of rice, flood disasters have a relatively small impact on rice growth. In addition, since 1998, China has increased the construction of agricultural water conservancy facilities in major grain production areas. A relatively complete drainage and irrigation system has been established, so the overall impact on rice production is small and the impact on China’s grain crops is small.
Li Guoxiang said that the heavy rain in the south has a greater impact on the growth of vegetable crops. The price of vegetables in the affected areas of the south may increase in the short term. In addition, the heavy rain may also affect the transportation of livestock products and push up the price in the short term. "CPI may increase in the short term, but it will not be a long-term effect."
According to data from the Shantou market in Guangdong, the average market price of vegetables from May 30 to June 5, 2020 continued to rise year-on-year last week. Among the 51 types of vegetables in the market, the overall average price was 5.17 yuan/kg, compared with last week The average price increased by 5.95% to 4.88 yuan/kg.
Statistics show that the southern rainstorm affected 11 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) such as Hubei, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi, among which Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi suffered the most. According to expert predictions, the vegetable prices in the above regions may rise in the short term.
Regarding the recent increase in pork prices, Li Guoxiang said that this has a certain relationship with the southern rainstorm affecting transportation, but the main reason is that some pig producers have cleared a large number of pigs in the past. The current price fluctuation is a cyclical repetition.
The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that in the coming week, the main rain belt in eastern China will rise to the north, and heavy rainfall will occur in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. However, heavy rainfall will continue in northwestern Guangxi and southwestern Hunan. On June 8, the Ministry of Water Resources of China raised the emergency response level of flood and drought disaster prevention to level III.
The China Meteorological Administration held a regular press conference in June to remind all places in the south to guard against the adverse effects of heavy precipitation, strong convection, and high-temperature weather. Early rice areas should pay attention to adjusting the temperature with water to prevent the adverse effects of high-temperature heat damage in summer on the early rice seed setting; areas with excessive rainfall should promptly drain and reduce waterlogging to promote normal crop growth. In the southwest region, we will do a good job in the field management of corn, first-season rice and other crops. Yunnan pays attention to reasonable water use and scientific water use, and does a good job in drought prevention and drought relief. (Finish)