China News Client, Beijing, June 10 (Xie Yiguan) The prices of pork, vegetables, and fruits have fallen back. The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 10th. In May, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year Last month, it decreased by 0.9 percentage points, and returned to the "2 era" after an interval of 8 months.
CPI rise and fall chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics
CPI year-on-year increase fell sharply
"In May, the domestic epidemic situation was generally stable, the resumption of production and the resumption of business in an orderly manner, and the market supply and demand situation further improved." Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced.
From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose 2.4%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices rose by 10.6%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points, affecting CPI rose by about 2.15 percentage points; non-food prices rose by 0.4%, the same increase as last month, affecting CPI rose by about 0.29 percentage points.
"After the epidemic, the seasonal supply bottleneck disappeared, the core supply chain that was interrupted by the epidemic resumed, and the supply of goods was sufficient, prompting a drop in CPI growth." Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, told CNN reporter.
Dong Lijuan said that in food, the price of pork rose by 81.7% year-on-year, or 15.2 percentage points of decline; the prices of beef, lamb, chicken, and duck rose by 4.4%-19.4%, all of which have dropped; the prices of fresh fruit, eggs, and fresh vegetables have fallen respectively. 19.3%, 14.5% and 8.5%, the decline has been expanded. Among non-food items, the prices of education, culture, entertainment, and healthcare increased by 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively, and the prices of transportation, communications, housing, and clothing dropped by 5.1%, 0.5%, and 0.4%, respectively.
"According to estimates, among the 2.4% year-on-year increase in May, last year’s price change impact was about 3.2 percentage points, and the new price increase effect was about -0.8 percentage points. From January to May, the average CPI rose by 4.1 from the same period last year. %." Dong Lijuan pointed out.
Data map: Supermarket employees are sorting pork. Zhang Yunshe
Pork prices continue to fall
In food, pork prices rose 81.7% year-on-year, affecting CPI growth of about 1.98 percentage points. It is still the main factor affecting CPI growth, but the growth rate fell by 15.2 percentage points from last month.
"From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, hog production capacity has further recovered, pork supply has continued to increase, coupled with rising temperatures, consumption has entered the off-season, prices continue to decline by 8.1%, and the decline will increase by 0.5 percentage points." Dong Lijuan said.
According to the monitoring of the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the “Agricultural Wholesale Prices 200 Index” in May 2020 was 114.95, a decrease of 8.47 points from the previous month and an increase of 0.57 points from the same period last year. Among them, the average wholesale price of pork (the average wholesale price of white strip meat) was 40.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 9.8% month-on-month and an increase of 96.1% year-on-year.
The monitoring data also shows that as of the fourth week of May (May 22-May 28), the national average wholesale price of pork fell for 14 consecutive weeks, falling to 38.82 yuan / kg.
"At present, the contradiction between pork supply and demand has eased, and pork prices have fallen from a high of 20%." CICC Research believes that, from the supply side, the number of capable sows has rebounded for 6 consecutive months, which is a low point from September last year. The cumulative increase is 13.2%. It is expected that the supply of pork will continue to grow and the demand will slowly pick up, prompting the price of pork and the profit of pig raising to gradually return to normal.
Data map: The flow of people in the Hohhot vegetable market is surging. Photo by Liu Wenhua
What is the trend of CPI increase in the future?
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from June 1 to 7, the price of meat has increased. Among them, the wholesale price of pork is 40.1 yuan per kilogram, up 3.8% from the previous week; the wholesale prices of beef and lamb have increased by 0.2% and 0.7%, respectively. The price of poultry products was generally stable, and the wholesale price of eggs remained unchanged from the previous week; the price of aquatic products rose slightly; the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables fell by 0.2%; the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits fell by 1.4%.
"Pork prices have stopped rising, mainly due to the approach of summer. The lack of seasonal supply of domestic pigs, coupled with the partial obstruction of imports, the price of pigs rose month-on-month." Liang Zhonghua, macro chief analyst of Zhongtai Securities, believes.
"Under the influence of multiple factors, it is expected that the CPI increase in June will decline, and the CPI increase in the second half of the year will run at a low level." Cao Heping said.
“The future year-on-year increase of CPI mainly depends on changes in pork prices and corresponding food prices.” Huajin Securities believes that with the increase in summer food supply and the accelerated recovery of hog production capacity, it is expected that food prices will continue to stabilize, and the year-on-year increase of CPI may tend to be stable or even continue Slow down.
Minsheng Securities estimates that pork prices will fall rapidly in the second half of this year. The fall in pig prices added to the higher base in the same period last year, and the CPI increase in the second half of this year may fall into the negative range. (Finish)