The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects the global economy to collapse by up to 7.6 percent in 2020. The pandemic was the "worst health and economic crisis since World War II," she said in an economic report. The experts assess the situation in Germany more pessimistically than the federal government.
In the study, the OECD outlines two scenarios: in the first, the spread of the novel coronavirus remains "under control", in the second there is a second wave of infections. In the first case, the global economy should shrink by six percent, in the worst case even by 7.6 percent. For the coming year, economists then expect a more or less significant recovery.
The eurozone is particularly badly affected: at best, the economy is likely to shrink by 9.1 percent, at worst by 11.5 percent. The OECD is particularly bleak in Spain, France, Italy and the United Kingdom, where deaths were particularly high.
Germany is doing comparatively well with a minus of 6.6 to 8.8 percent. However, the Federal Government has only anticipated a 6.3 percent decline in gross domestic product and is therefore more optimistic about the situation. For 2021, the organization expects economic growth of 5.8 percent without a further wave of infections.
In the event of a second wave of infections, the German economy could not recover for a long time, the OECD predicts. The gross domestic product (GDP) would then only grow by 1.7 percent in 2021 and only make up a small part of the expected decline of 8.8 percent this year.
The OECD warned the industrialized countries to cooperate in the crisis. "Recovery will only pick up speed with more trust - and global cooperation is a prerequisite for this increased trust," said chief economist Laurence Boone. The goal is the worldwide use of a vaccine or medication. The OECD is made up of 38 countries, including most of the EU countries including the United States and Japan.