Laurence Boone, here with Michel Sapin. (archives) - WITT / SIPA
The OECD predicts a global recession of 6% for 2020 if the Covid-19 pandemic "remains under control" and 7.6% in the event of a second wave, in its economic outlook published on Wednesday. For 2021, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development anticipates a strong rebound in the first case with growth of 5.2%, a rebound which would however be limited to 2.8% in the event of a second wave.
In early March, when the coronavirus had already hit China but not yet the other major economies of the planet, the OECD was still counting on 2.4% global growth for the current year. Whether or not there is a second epidemic wave, "by the end of 2021, the loss of income will exceed that of all previous recessions in the past 100 years except in war, with dire and lasting consequences for populations, businesses and governments, "said OECD chief economist Laurence Boone.
Reinforcement of inequalities
"Everywhere, containment has reinforced the inequalities between workers", the most qualified able to telework while the young and the less qualified are "often on the front line" in the fight against the pandemic, notes the chief economist of the OECD. The Covid-19 also "accelerated the switch from a 'big integration' to a 'big fragmentation'" of the world economy with the appearance of "additional restrictions on trade and investment", according to Laurence Boone .
The euro zone will be particularly affected with a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) expected to 9.1% in the most favorable scenario, and to 11.5% in the event of a second wave in 2020. For the United States, l The OECD forecasts a GDP decline of 7.3% or 8.5%, respectively, depending on the scenario. China, still championing growth last year with 6.1%, will also see its economy contract, by 2.6%, or even 3.7% this year if the virus resurfaces massively.
To allow the economy to recover, the OECD notably recommends “strengthening health systems”, “facilitating changes in occupations while strengthening income protection”, and “making supply chains more resilient ”.
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- Covid 19