The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May is likely to continue to rebound
Newspaper trainee reporter Chang Xiaoyu
Since the beginning of this year, the word "consumption" has been mentioned many times by relevant departments and governments at various levels, and has been written in the "Government Work Report" in 2020, which is enough to see the strength and determination of the country to promote the recovery of consumption. Next, economic and financial data will be released intensively in May. Under the background of the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, what new changes will the consumption data have?
"From January to April, the cumulative growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods was -16.2% year-on-year; of which, the single-month growth rate in April was -7.5%, an increase of 8.3% compared with March." Deli Fund Manager Xia Liman accepted "Securities Daily" reporter said in an interview that with the continuous issuance of consumer vouchers across the country and measures to stimulate consumption based on local conditions, it is expected that the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May will continue to pick up, and the offline retail recovery trend will continue.
Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at the Consumer Finance Research Center of Suning Financial Research Institute, also believes that consumption will continue to pick up. In an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter, he said that in the context of the obvious improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, all parts of the country have entered the peak period of full-scale resumption of production, and the frequency and duration of residents’ outings are also getting closer to that before the epidemic The level has greatly driven the continuous recovery of offline consumption. At the same time, car consumption in May has picked up compared with April, superimposed on the "May 1" small holiday and the positive impact of consumer promotion policies. It is expected that the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May will usher in a larger rebound.
On April 28, the 45th "Statistical Report on China Internet Development Status" released by the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC) showed that as of March 2020, the scale of Internet users in China was 904 million, and the Internet penetration rate reached 64.5%. The scale of online shopping users reaches 710 million. The huge number of netizens constitutes China's booming consumer market, and it also lays a solid user base for the development of the digital economy.
Regarding the two different consumption modes of online and offline, Charlemagne believes that consumer shopping behavior has been affected by the epidemic, coupled with the continuous expansion of the "Internet +" consumption scale, online consumption performance is significantly better than offline consumption. "From January to April, online retail sales accounted for 24.1% of the highest total retail sales of social consumer goods, especially snack foods, cosmetics, consumer electronics and other products are selling online." Charlemagne said.
"Although the offline consumer market has continued to pick up, the popularity of online consumption has not weakened as a result. The current live broadcast of live streaming is the best example of the surge in online consumption. Its strong interaction, efficiency and convenience, and excellent experience The characteristics of consumers are favored by consumers. This also reflects that the online shopping habits developed by consumers during the epidemic have continued and will continue to be a “fixing star” for the stable consumer market. At the same time, it will also drive supply The further upgrading and development of related industries such as chain and logistics will inject a steady stream of momentum into the national economic growth." Fu Yifu further explained.