The French economy will undoubtedly take two years to climb up the slope

"The French economy is recovering fairly quickly but we are far from going out of business," said Tuesday morning the Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau.

According to the institution, it will take time to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. It anticipates a record drop of around 10% of GDP this year. The “gradual” recovery started with the lifting of containment should translate into a rebound in the economy in the third quarter but will not be enough to avoid an unprecedented recession in the economy this year.

"Unemployment will rise [...] above 11% in mid-2021", predicts François Villeroy de Galhau pic.twitter.com/QvTOTiydpH

After that, "2021 and 2022 would be years of clear but gradual recovery," predicts the Banque de France, with growth of 7% expected next year, then a 4% increase in GDP in 2022. However, "this strong apparent rebound would not allow to find the level of activity at the end of 2019 before mid-2022 ", warns the public institution.

Unemployment peak mid-2021

In some areas, the horizon seems less dark than envisaged. Site closings in the industry "have become marginal" and the building is resuming "very dynamically", notes the Banque de France. The situation is more contrasted in services, with sectors still in difficulty, such as accommodation or catering, which are still partially confined, and others which have rebounded markedly, such as personal services, temporary work or services. automobiles.

But the recovery will follow fluctuations in household consumption. It is "likely that the expected rise in unemployment and the global context of high uncertainty will continue to weigh on purchasing behavior," said the institution.

After having been amortized by the partial unemployment scheme, the #employment rate in France could peak more than 11.5% in mid-2021. It would then gradually decrease, below 10% at the end of 2022. 👉 https://t.co/iCZQu5vJGF #Projections pic.twitter.com/foJA3qkVbT

Faster recovery if a vaccine arrives within a year

If the partial unemployment set up by the government slows down the impact of the crisis on employment and purchasing power this year, the unemployment rate should reach more than 10% at the end of 2020, and reach a peak higher than 11 , 5% in mid-2021, a level "above historical precedents", according to these forecasts. It will be necessary to wait the following year to see it descend to 9.7%. Purchasing power should fall slightly by 0.5% this year, before starting to rise again, but at a much slower pace than activity.

"10 to 30 billion euros will be necessary to solidify companies in lack of equity, otherwise the economy will not be able to leave with them", François #Villeroy de Galhau on @franceinfo

We must therefore be patient, and count on the arrival of a vaccine that could change the situation in terms of economic recovery. It will be faster if a lasting medical solution arrives in mid-2021, estimates the Banque de France. Or conversely much slower if the epidemic resumes.

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• Unemployment
• Company
• Crisis
• Bank of France
• Confinement
• Covid 19
• Coronavirus
• Economy