Recently, many media reported that the "62 cities second-hand housing iceberg index increase ranking (157 issues)" showed that the price of second-hand housing in Dongguan in the fourth week of May was 19,751 yuan, an increase of 2.7% month-on-month, and the increase exceeded Shenzhen for the first time. Ranked first in the country, and declared that the housing prices in Dongguan have soared this year, and will soon enter the "30,000 era."
Dongguan Real Estate Photo by Zhang Qinghuo
Relevant staff of the Dongguan City Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau pointed out that from the data of online signing transactions, the transaction prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in Dongguan have fluctuated slightly in the past three months, but the overall stability. "I don't know what data the index is based on, but it is very different from the transaction data of our online signing system."
In an interview with China News Service, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that there are many sources of house price data in the Chinese real estate market, mainly official and private companies. The private sector generally publishes data from several major housing websites and intermediaries, and calculates fluctuations in market prices according to the locality of the listing or their own transactions. "The Iceberg Index is not claimed by the organization, and its data source is doubtful."
How much has the housing price in Dongguan gone up?
According to the data provided by the Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau of Dongguan, the average transaction price of second-hand housing in Dongguan showed a negative month-on-month growth in March and April. The price is still low.
In an interview with China News Service, Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that because Dongguan is one of the major cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, housing is relatively tight, plus some new housing projects are less likely. Affecting the price of second-hand housing, especially the better second-hand housing in some school districts, the price may rise to a certain extent.
Dongguan Real Estate Photo by Zhang Qinghuo
The data released by Shell Research Institute also shows that the secondary housing market in Dongguan has been relatively active recently. Judging from the chain transactions, it is estimated that in June, the transaction volume of Dongguan's second-hand housing will be the same as that in May, an increase of 18% compared with April. In terms of prices, in the first week of June, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Dongguan was 23,400 yuan per square meter, up 3.6% from the previous month.
Zhang Dawei's analysis believes that the monthly transaction volume of second-hand housing in Dongguan is only about 3,000 units, and the price fluctuation of second-hand housing is of little significance to the whole country. In the past few years, the price of second-hand housing in Dongguan has risen along with the overall increase in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and the increase is not higher than that of surrounding cities of the same type.
The increase in the price of second-hand housing in Dongguan is driven by real estate agents and a few owners. Some of the "big birds" who committed crimes in Dongguan have been dealt with seriously.
For example, in the general election of the owner committee of a community in Dongcheng, a number of banners were openly displayed in the community, advocating the organization of owners to speculate on second-hand housing prices from 30,000 to 50,000. After receiving the report, the Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau of Dongguan immediately ordered the community business committee to remove the banner and made serious criticism.
It is estimated that a real estate in Nancheng will not start pre-sale until September or October of this year. However, in the past few days, there have been frequent reports that the real estate is hard to find, the house price is "broken four", and the "tea fee" is charged. The Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau of Dongguan immediately interviewed the developer of the real estate, urging it to effectively regulate its operating behavior, take measures to curb external hype, and not disturb the market order.
It is worth noting that the price of newly built commercial housing in Dongguan has also risen to a certain extent.
According to data provided by the Dongguan Municipal Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau, in March and April this year, the average sales price of newly-built commercial housing in Dongguan decreased month-on-month, and in May it increased by 2.13% month-on-month to 22,918 yuan per square meter.
Online contracted sales of newly built commercial housing in Dongguan in 2020
Sun Qiuxia Cartography
Yan Yuejin pointed out that house prices will fluctuate for a period of time. Dongguan is a relatively economically developed city with a very dense population. It is normal for housing prices to occasionally rise by about 5%. "If there is real housing speculation, it is necessary for officials to control housing prices and promote stable development of the market."
Dongguan is about to enter the "30,000 era"?
In recent years, as one of the major cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the development of Dongguan has attracted much attention. Especially as some industries in Shenzhen moved to Dongguan, a large number of immigrants came from the city, and house prices also rose.
According to the "Statistical Bulletin of Dongguan's National Economic and Social Development in 2019", at the end of 2019, the resident population of Dongguan is 8.645 million, of which 779.58 million are urban residents.
In addition, from the geographical point of view, Dongguan is located in the middle of two high-price cities in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which is a depression of housing prices. In recent years, many residents of Shenzhen and Guangzhou have gone to Dongguan to buy houses. Especially in Shenzhen, many wage earners can't bear the rising house prices, and the accelerated urbanization of Shenzhen and Dongguan, they have to buy houses in Dongguan, which is near Shenzhen, which has greatly increased the prices of Dongguan.
At present, the average price of many properties in Dongguan's Shenzhen area exceeds 30,000. In the future, will housing prices in Dongguan enter the "30,000" era?
Dongguan Real Estate Photo by Zhang Qinghuo
First look at a set of data.
According to the Dongguan Statistical Survey Information Network, in April 2020, there were five town streets with an average contract price of over 30,000 yuan/sqm for newly-built commercial housing in Dongguan City: Guancheng, Dongcheng, Wanjiang, Nancheng, Chang'an Town. The lowest average price is Qiaotou Town, which is only 13005 yuan/square meter.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that housing prices in some parts of Dongguan are around 30,000, which is in line with expectations, and it is difficult to enter the "30,000 era". Because there are more local migrant workers, housing is just needed, and it is impossible to grow indefinitely.
It is worth noting that in 2016, Dongguan issued "Several Opinions on Further Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of Our City's Real Estate Market." This is the first time Dongguan has introduced a purchase restriction policy.
The relevant person in charge of the Housing Section of the Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau of Dongguan City once said that the original intention of the policy was mainly to curb the speculative demand for overheated investment in the market, and at the same time to protect the rigid demand and the improved demand. "Fujian-Shenzhen integration is the general trend. It is indeed necessary to take into account the needs of young people to buy houses in Dongguan. The policy should be as'no mistake' as possible."
According to data released by the Dongguan Statistical Survey Information Network, from 2016 to 2020, the average sales price of newly built commercial housing in Dongguan rose from more than 10,000 yuan per square meter to more than 20,000 yuan.
Online contract sales of newly built commercial housing in Dongguan over the years
Sun Qiuxia Cartography
Zhang Dawei said that in the past four years, housing prices in many cities across the country have doubled, such as Hangzhou, etc., and housing prices in Dongguan have not risen significantly.
It is reported that in order to stabilize the real estate market, Dongguan will also take some "hard measures" to stabilize house prices while resolving the chaos. For example, the declared price of the project is significantly higher than the price of similar projects in the surrounding area or the previous transaction price of the project. If a reasonable explanation is given, the suspension of the issuance of pre-sale permits or the suspension of the filing of the current sale is temporarily suspended; all listings of second-hand houses that are significantly higher than the recent real transaction price or the average price of surrounding real estate will be removed from the shelves.
Author: Sunqiu Xia