Will "Reduced Standards" come? The central bank will continue the "spicy powder" this month, the amount is to be determined!
Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, June 8 (Monday), the central bank's open market launched a 120 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation. The 500 billion yuan MLF expired on the same day, and no reverse repurchase expired. In addition, the central bank will continue to make a one-time renewal of the mid-term loan facility (MLF) due this month around June 15. The specific operation amount will be determined according to market demand and other circumstances.
The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client noted that Wind data shows that 1.41 trillion liquidity will expire in June, including 670 billion reverse repo and 740 billion medium-term loan facility (MLF). At the same time, it is expected that local and special government bonds will be issued around the middle of the year, and the pressure on the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit will co-exist.
Central Bank announcement screenshot
Since June, the central bank has suspended open market operations for three consecutive working days on the grounds that “the current total liquidity of the banking system is at a reasonable and sufficient level, and no reverse repurchase operations will be carried out.” After that, it was carried out on June 4 and 5, respectively. 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 70 billion yuan and 150 billion yuan. Wind data shows that during the week of June 1st to June 5th, the central bank conducted a total of 220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. In view of the 670 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expirations, the open market net withdrawal of 450 billion yuan in the week.
Xie Yunliang, the chief macro analyst of Minsheng Securities, previously said that a total of 220.4 billion yuan of government bonds reached the payment date this week, 220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, and 500 billion yuan of MLF expired on Monday. It is expected that the central bank will moderately open the market The operation is hedged.
Zhou Yue, chief analyst of Guojin Securities' solid income, believes that from the perspective of rhythm, reverse repurchase and MLF expiration are mainly concentrated at the beginning of the month, which will have a certain impact on liquidity. It is expected that the central bank will conduct operations in a timely manner to make the banking system flow. Sexuality remains reasonably ample.
The bond market has been volatile recently, and bond yields have risen. China’s 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen sharply to 2.85% from its previous low of nearly 2.5%. Regarding this round of bond market adjustment, Guohai Securities believes that after the liquidity tightening at the end of May, although the inter-bank fund interest rate has been adjusted across the months, it has not returned to 5 with the net return of open market operations. Lower level at the beginning of the month. At the same time, the central bank launched a new tool for purchasing small and micro loans, but did not release the news of the RRR cut and interest rate cut, which caused the market to establish the expectation of monetary policy from "wide currency" to "wide credit", resulting in a substantial adjustment in the bond market.
Guohai Securities pointed out that although the rise of currency and bond interest rates at this stage is conducive to preventing the phenomenon of empty funds and the phenomenon of "fishing in muddy waters", too fast a rise is not conducive to the recovery of the real economy after the epidemic. Judging from the central bank's recent open market operations, when DR007 rises above 2%, the central bank will increase its money supply, so interest rates will rise upward. In the next stage, the bond market may usher in a pattern of box shocks, and there are trading opportunities.
CITIC Securities clearly believes that considering the subsequent recovery process of fundamentals and the rhythm of monetary policy, the trending bear market has not yet arrived in the short term. Under the combination of weak fundamental recovery, wide credit strength and monetary policy hesitation, the shock market will be The main feature of the subsequent bond market is that the 10-year Treasury yield to maturity is expected to fluctuate between 2.6% and 2.8%. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)