(Economic Observation) Intensive adjustment of global supply chain, China's importance does not decrease but increases
China News Agency, Beijing, June 3 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) Global trade is suffering a huge impact due to the epidemic. Not only has the total trade volume shrunk significantly, but the layout of the industrial chain supply chain has also faced in-depth adjustments. Scholars here believe that China's position in the international division of labor will not be weakened by the epidemic, but will be strengthened; "decoupling" from China cannot be achieved.
Due to the epidemic situation, the free movement of goods, services and people is blocked, and the global economy and trade are in a rare dilemma. The United Nations recently released a report saying that due to the new crown epidemic, the global economy is expected to shrink by 3.2% in 2020. According to the WTO forecast, global merchandise trade will decline by 13% to 32% this year, a new low after the 2008 international financial crisis.
To make matters worse, the United States and other countries have begun to accelerate the return of their own companies for the sake of their own industrial chain supply chain security considerations, which further exacerbates the difficulties faced by the global industrial chain supply chain.
Some analysts believe that there may be two trends in the global supply chain layout in the future: on the one hand, some economies will pay more attention to the integrity and independent controllability of their supply chains, resulting in regional supply chain agglomeration; In order to diversify risks, the company will pay more attention to diversify its supply chain.
Some supply chain adjustments have already begun. According to foreign media reports, 59% of the trade in the automotive supply chain from seat leather to instrument panel display chips has been carried out in the region.
However, the adjustment of the supply chain in some industries does not mean that China will lose its position in the global industry chain supply chain.
At present, China's importance in the international division of labor has been difficult to be replaced by other countries. According to the McKinsey Global Institute report, China contributes 35% of global manufacturing output, and almost all industries worldwide rely on China to a certain extent.
Wu Yabin, chief representative of the China Investment Promotion Office of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, said in an interview with China News Service that under such circumstances, it is “difficult” to transfer manufacturing or procurement completely outside China and form a supply chain independent of China .
He pointed out that in the medium and long term, the decisive factor for a country's attractiveness to global investors is two, one is the business environment, and the other is the country's position in the global industrial chain supply chain value chain. China's advantages in these two areas have not been changed by the epidemic, but have been strengthened. "Therefore, it is possible for foreign companies to set up supplementary manufacturing bases outside China to diversify risks, but they will not retreat recklessly from China."
In fact, the reason why many foreign companies have invested in China in recent years is mainly due to China's huge market. In the words of the former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, Wei Jianguo, it is the most cost-effective for these enterprises to keep the production links in China in order to meet the needs of Chinese consumers as quickly as possible, reduce costs, and maximize profits. select.
It is equally unrealistic to transfer purchases outside of China. Earlier, many American companies said that it is difficult to find suppliers like Chinese companies that can meet both quantity and quality requirements.
Nevertheless, China still needs to take measures as soon as possible to consolidate its position in the global industrial chain supply chain.
Ma Tao, an associate researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that China, as a supply chain center in the industrial chain of the Asia-Pacific region, will increasingly appreciate the impact and uncertainty brought about by changes in the international order and market structure .
Wu Yabin also reminded that China's immediate priority now lies in "compensating the chain", "stabilizing the chain" and "strong chain", that is, strengthening the weak links of the supply chain, stabilizing the industrial chain, and enhancing its position in the global value chain. To achieve this goal, China may consider cooperating with major Asian economies to implement industrial upgrading plans, such as setting up a China-Japan-Korea industrial cooperation fund to encourage the combination of foreign new materials and processes with China’s capacity advantages.
China is already taking action. State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi said during the two sessions of the country that China, Japan and South Korea should promote cooperation in resuming production and production and stabilize the supply chain of the industrial chain. Last week, China also issued a joint statement with ASEAN, promising to strengthen cooperation and strengthen confidence.
Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that China’s strengthened cooperation with Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN will help smooth the supply chain of the industry chain in the region and be beneficial to maintaining the safety of the supply chain of the Chinese industry chain. (Finish)