PMI stands on the Kurong line for three consecutive months

  Tan Haojun

  According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The comprehensive PMI output index was 53.4%, which was the same as last month, indicating that the production and operation of Chinese enterprises have steadily improved. (For related reports, see version A3)

  This is also after PMI's "diving" in February, it has stood above the 50% Kurong line for three consecutive months, which is very difficult for the Chinese economy. Although the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic has been basically controlled domestically, the global epidemic is still spreading, import risks still exist, and many aspects cannot be fully liberalized to restore the economy.

  According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy will shrink by 3% in 2020, and the latest results announced by the World Bank are even more pessimistic. Therefore, stabilizing the economic fundamentals is very important for China's economic and social stability, residents' employment, and people's livelihood security. PMI has stood above the Kurong line for 3 consecutive months, which undoubtedly gave us great confidence.

  With the promotion and promotion of various policies, the resumption of production of enterprises is steadily advancing. The average operating rate and resumption rate of industrial enterprises above the national scale have reached 99% and 96%, respectively, and the resumption rate of SMEs has reached more than 91% . The next thing to do is how to improve the efficiency of the company ’s resumption of production, and reset the demand for employees, raw materials, and various auxiliary materials of the enterprise to more than 80%. Then, the basic economic plate will be stabilized. As long as the basic economy is stabilized, employment and people's livelihood are guaranteed.

  Although PMI has stood above the Kurong line for three consecutive months, it should also be noted that the PMI data for the two months of April and May are declining. Judging from the sub-indicators, the May production index was 53.2%, although it was much higher than the critical point, but it fell 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production prosperity has declined; the May employment index was 49.4%, compared with The decrease of 0.8 percentage points last month indicates that the employment prosperity of manufacturing enterprises is lower than that of last month. The poor performance of the employee index is related to the poor SME index. How to keep and stabilize SMEs is the most important and urgent task at present. If the employee index continues to perform well, it will play a very important role in ensuring employment and people's livelihood.

  So, how can we stabilize the good pattern of PMI, the economic fundamentals, and the overall development situation? Improving the efficiency of resuming production is the most important and necessary. To achieve this, on the one hand, it is necessary to rely on the efforts of the enterprise itself to continuously adapt to market demands and expand market space; on the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen the smooth work of the national supply chain, strengthen the linkage of small and medium-sized enterprises, dredge the relationship between upstream and downstream enterprises, and lay down for resumption of production Solid foundation.

  We must give full play to the role of new economic kinetic energy, especially the role of new infrastructure. The role of the new infrastructure is not only reflected in the "new", but also in the "belt", driving the transformation and upgrading of the traditional economy and the conversion of kinetic energy, so that the old trees of the traditional economy will sprout. To better play the role of the new infrastructure, we must prevent the problems that often occur in the past that only focus on quantity, not on quality, only on speed and not on efficiency, put quality, brand, efficiency, and efficiency in a prominent position, and put technology As the primary goal, competitiveness and competitiveness have truly become an important force driving China's economic transformation and upgrading and high-quality development.

  On this basis, further use the supporting power of the policy, in accordance with the requirements of the government work report, increase the reform of market elements, continue to implement a series of policy measures such as tax reduction and fee reduction, to help economic development and public health construction, especially "Two 1 trillion" should be used at the grassroots level and enterprises, especially small and medium enterprises. If the money can be used in place and where it is most needed, it will certainly provide a strong guarantee for stabilizing the economic fundamentals, stabilizing the employment of the residents, and stabilizing the livelihood of the people.