China-Singapore Jingwei client, May 31 (Xue Yufei) In recent days, the land market in many cities across the country has recovered, and land transactions have continued to rise. According to the agency's data, as of May 25, the revenue from land sales in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou all exceeded 100 billion yuan, and 49 cities exceeded 10 billion yuan, followed by an increase in the premium rate of soil sales.
The analysis believes that the loose financial environment has objectively enabled housing companies to bid for land, and the successive launch of some high-quality land has also attracted housing companies to compete. The agency expects that the transaction scale of the land market in the second quarter of this year is expected to remain high, and competition for land auctions in first- and second-tier cities and some third-tier cities will become more intense.
50 cities land sales revenue exceeds 1.6 trillion yuan premium rate increase
Information Photograph by the new latitude and longitude Jia Yifu in the sand table of the sales office
On May 19, Beijing sold three residential land sites, two of which are located in Mintai Temple, Fengtai District. Lot L39 of Minsi Temple Village attracted 10 housing companies to participate in the auction. After 56 rounds of auctions, the company was eventually won by the company of Hesheng Creative for 4.2 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 42%. 76168 yuan / square meter.
On the same day, Lot 41, Temple Village, was auctioned by Hesheng Creative with a total price of 6.54 billion yuan after 82 rounds of intense auctions, with a premium rate of 37.86%, and the saleable residential comprehensive floor price was 73912 yuan per square meter . On May 9th, 10 days ago, Hopson Development has obtained adjacent plots at a total price of 7.22 billion yuan and a premium rate of 26.2%, with a comprehensive floor price of 69133 yuan per square meter.
Within 10 days, Hesheng Chuangzhan continued to acquire 3 pieces of high-quality land in Beijing area with high premium rate, high floor price and high total price, which shocked the soil auction market. It is generally expected in the industry that for the Hopson Exhibition to be profitable, these three lands need to create luxury products of more than 100,000 yuan / square meter.
With a total of 17.96 billion yuan of local auction contributions, Hopson Innovation has made Beijing's land sales revenue exceed the 100 billion yuan mark this year. The data shows that as of recently, the total turnover of the Beijing land market was about 113 billion yuan, up 83.29% year-on-year; the average premium rate was 18.61%, up 71.1% year-on-year.
The phenomenon of heating up the land market has also appeared in cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen. On May 15, an auction site in Qianhai, Shenzhen, where "double limit and double competition" was adopted, 16 housing companies participated in the auction. Eventually, the site was won by Longguang Real Estate for 11.597 billion yuan, and the construction of 40760 The premium rate for square meters of talent housing is 45%. The saleable floor price of this place is about 87409 yuan / square meter, becoming the new "king of land" in Shenzhen.
According to the data provided by the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, since the beginning of this year, the land market turnover of 50 major cities in the country totaled 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 12% year-on-year; land sales revenue in 27 cities exceeded 20 billion yuan, and 49 cities exceeded 100. 100 million yuan, all set a new historical record; there are 3 cities with land market turnover exceeding 100 billion yuan, namely Beijing, Hangzhou (about 109.7 billion yuan), and Shanghai (101.5 billion yuan).
The rising premium rate has become a feature of the current local auction market. Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that among the land that has been sold this year, there are 44 land parcels with a transaction price of more than 2 billion yuan, of which only 11 land parcels were sold at a reserve price, accounting for 25%. . Previously, land parcels with a base price accounted for more than 50%, and among the high-priced land sold in the fourth quarter of 2019, base price transactions accounted for 60%.
The CR Research Center said that under the influence of the opening of high-quality land supply, the premium rate for land in April this year rose again by 3.8 percentage points on the basis of March to 16.0%, the highest since July last year. By the week of May 11-5-17, the weekly premium rate for the land market had risen to 26%, a new high this year and doubled from the 12% premium rate in the first week of April. The popularity of cities of all grades has remained unprecedentedly high, with the premium rates of the first and second tiers both reaching 27%, and the third and fourth tiers are slightly inferior, at 24%.
First- and second-tier cities are still key housing companies competing for high-quality land
From the regional and city levels, the local market in the first- and second-tier cities is more popular.
According to data released by the Shell Research Institute on May 29, the total residential land transaction volume of 351 cities in the country was 44.38 million square meters in May, a cumulative decrease of 21.3% year-on-year, and the decline was consistent with April. However, land supply in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places increased, and the transaction volume of residential land in first-tier cities increased by 29.7% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of E-House Research Institute, from January to April, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities across the country was 155 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, of which, the transaction area of first-tier cities was 10.31 million square meters, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year; the average price of residential land It was 6011 yuan / square meter, up 12.3% year-on-year, and the price of first-tier cities was 18273 yuan / square meter, up 40.1% year-on-year.
"Land transactions in first-tier cities are generally good. This is related to factors such as a marked increase in local government's willingness to provide land and reduced restrictions on land transactions. Some housing companies have also increased land investment in first-tier cities, and their enthusiasm for land acquisition has increased significantly. Overall, In the current environment of stable investment, the land market of first-tier cities is facing better development opportunities, and the related land transaction market is expected to continue to pick up. "Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the E-House Research Institute, explained.
Yan Yuejin analyzed the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that this year's financial environment has a further easing trend, which has a positive effect on the financing of housing companies and objectively enables them to bid for various types of land. However, if the land price in some cities is overheated, it is easy to attract the attention of the regulatory authorities, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of policy suppression.
In addition, the successive launch of high-quality plots in many places has also helped fuel the local market. The CR Research Center said that from April to mid-May, the land market in second-tier cities is the hottest. Among them, Taiyuan has the most outstanding performance, with an overall premium rate of up to 44%, mainly due to Taiyuan ’s supply of three large-scale housing sites in the Changfeng West plate of Wanlin District in the core area of the central area. The fierce competition for housing companies was eventually won by Poly, China Shipping and R & F, with premium rates of 74%, 72% and 45% respectively. The centralized transfer of high-quality plots has made Taiyuan's land market unprecedentedly hot.
In addition to unlimited price, the location of the aforementioned Beijing Minsi Temple site is also good. Pan Hao, a senior analyst at the Shell Research Institute, believes that the Minsi Temple area in Beijing is a rare value depression within the Fourth Ring Road. Although the current living atmosphere is weak, the convenient transportation conditions and the vacuum competitive environment bring good development opportunities for it. The three adjacent plots are concentrated in transactions and entering the market, and will form a joint force in the future to create new mid-to-high-end residential areas.
As for the future performance of the land market, the Kerui Research Center predicts that the transaction scale of the land market is expected to remain high in the second quarter, but under the pressure of capital and sales expectations, there will be more unsatisfactory plots that no one cares about. The land auction rate may continue to climb. Although the volume and price of all levels of cities and market popularity have rebounded across the board, the concentration of transactions in first- and second-tier cities has increased again. Next, the competition for first-tier and second-tier cities and some third-tier cities with more guaranteed demand will be more intense. Different levels The differentiation between cities has become more apparent.
Property market transactions quickly resume the market and enter "Xiaoyang Chun"
The rising land market reflects developers' confidence in the future property market. Zhang Dawei said that some housing companies judged that the market would stabilize quickly, and their enthusiasm for land acquisition increased significantly, especially when the overall market continued to heat up from April to May this year.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced on April 18 that the sales price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April showed that the number of cities with new house sales prices rose 50%, a significant increase from 21 and 38 in February and March; second-hand The number of cities where housing sales prices have increased month-on-month has reached 37, an increase from the 14 and 32 in February and March. The number of cities with new and second-hand housing price increases has returned to the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.
According to the data provided by the Shell Institute on the 29th, in May, the volume of second-hand housing in its key 18 cities continued to increase, an increase of 15.2% month-on-month, and an increase of 42% year-on-year. The May volume was the highest level last year (2019 March 98%; the transaction volume from January to May decreased by about 15% compared with the same period last year, and narrowed by 10 percentage points from the year-on-year decline from January to April. It can be seen that the impact of the epidemic on the market is gradually decreasing.
"The substantial increase in overall transaction volume is related to the epidemic delaying the release of demand, the May 1st long holiday convenience period, and the decline in mortgage interest rates affecting home buyers' expectations." Shell Research Institute analysis.
Will the resurgence of the land market drive the property market transaction volume up? Shell Research Institute believes that although the second-hand market entered the late "Xiaoyang Spring" in May, regardless of seasonality or current market supply and demand, the transaction volume is expected to show signs of natural decline. Yan Yuejin said that although easing expectations continue, in the short-term, house price growth is unlikely to rebound.
Zhang Dawei said that after reaffirming that "housing and housing are not speculation", the chance of a substantial relaxation of real estate regulation and control policies is relatively small, and the future trend of the market depends on the strength of credit policies and the introduction of talent policies around the country. "The whole world is 'draining water' and the identification standards of talents everywhere will become lower and lower, which will become the mainstream policy trend in the market in 2020." (Zhongjing Jingwei APP)
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