Declaration of emergency Situation of consumption declined due to cancellation of Kansai Some estimation by private sector May 21 17:50
A private economist estimates that an emergency situation will be lifted in two prefectures and one prefecture in the Kansai region, resulting in a decrease in personal consumption of about 200 billion yen, compared to when the declaration continued in eight prefectures until the end of May. I summarized it.
Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at the Dai-ichi Life Economic Research Institute, said that if the emergency declaration issued nationwide in April continued in eight prefectures such as Tokyo until the end of May, personal consumption would decrease by ¥ 14 trillion 300 billion. I was trying to get a yen.
According to a new calculation calculated on 21st, the decline in personal consumption will be 14 trillion yen, assuming that the declaration will be lifted in two prefectures in Kansai, such as Osaka, and consumption of food and clothing will recover to a certain extent. So, we think that it will be 200 billion yen less than before.
It is a form that somehow slows down consumption.
However, among the economists in the private sector, due to the stagnation of economic activity so far, it is expected that the real growth rate of GDP from April to June will drop significantly by more than -20% in annual terms. I am.
Regarding the impact on employment in this case, Mr. Nagahama estimates that there will be an increase of 1.3 million unemployed people, and in order not to prolong the recession of the economy, economic measures with more aggressive fiscal measures should be taken. I point out that it is necessary.