Completion of the 2017 Round International Comparison Project-Relevant person in charge of the Chinese Statistical Association responds to reporters' questions on the global 2017 round ICP results
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, May 19 - Title: 2017 International Comparison Project completion ring - China Statistical Society responsible person answering reporters' questions on the ring ICP Global 2017 results
Xinhua News Agency reporter Yu Qiongyuan
On May 19, 2020, the World Bank released the report "Purchasing Power Parity and World Economic Scale-Results of the 2017 Round International Comparison Project (ICP)" on its official website. In order to let the public understand and master the theoretical knowledge of ICP, and correctly use and view the results of purchasing power parity (PPP), the reporter interviewed the relevant person in charge of the Chinese Statistical Association.
Reporter: What is ICP? Why implement ICP internationally? What are the reasons for China's participation in global ICP?
Relevant person in charge: ICP is the English abbreviation for International Comparison Project. An important purpose of conducting international economic comparative research is to convert the total amount of economic activity expressed in local currencies by countries into a unified currency. For a long time, the international exchange rate method has been mainly used for currency conversion and international comparison. The exchange rate method is simple, intuitive, and easy to understand. However, because the exchange rate mainly reflects the currency ratio of goods and services in international trade, price differences between countries are not considered, and the exchange rate is easily affected by fluctuations in international trade and financial markets. Therefore, when the exchange rate changes significantly Time, the results of comparison between countries will be affected.
In order to overcome the impact of large fluctuations in the exchange rate law, starting from 1968, the United Nations Statistics Division and the University of Pennsylvania jointly conducted ICP activities to measure the PPP of each participating economy. PPP is the comprehensive price ratio of goods and services in different countries, and refers to the amount of local currency that a country needs to purchase the same amount of goods and services in the base country. PPP solves the problem of price differences between economies. So far, there have been 9 rounds in the world, and ICP has become the world's largest international statistical cooperation project.
China conducted ICP surveys six times in 1993, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2011 and 2017. Participating in global and regional ICP activities has established China's image as an open, cooperative and responsible big country, which is conducive to multi-scale evaluation of the status of China's economic aggregate in the world and is conducive to improving China's statistical capabilities. In China, ICP is an exploratory international statistical cooperation project, organized and implemented by the Chinese Statistical Society.
Reporter: What is the result of the 2017 round of ICP in the world? What changes have been made to the distribution pattern of the world economy?
Relevant person in charge: The World Bank calculated based on data submitted by 176 countries and regions. In 2017, the total GDP of 176 economies calculated by the PPP method was US $ 119.5 trillion, which was higher than the US $ 79.7 trillion of the exchange rate method. 50.0%. Among them, there are 161 countries and regions with GDP under the PPP method higher than GDP under the exchange rate method, accounting for 91.5%.
In 2017, the top 10 countries in terms of GDP calculated by the PPP method were China, the United States, India, Japan, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, Brazil, France and Indonesia. The total GDP of these countries accounts for about 60.7% of the world. According to the exchange rate method, the top 10 countries with the highest GDP are the United States, China, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, India, Brazil, Italy and Canada. Compared with the GDP of the exchange rate method, the GDP of the PPP method in most countries and regions has increased, among which the developing countries and regions have risen faster.
Reporter: The World Bank report shows that China ’s 2017 PPP law GDP reached 19.6 trillion US dollars, slightly surpassing the United States and ranking first in the world. How do you view this result?
Relevant person in charge: According to World Bank estimates, China's 2017 PPP was 4.184, which means that the purchasing power of 1 US dollar is equivalent to 4.184 yuan, and the exchange rate for the same period is 1 dollar to 6.76 yuan. China ’s 2017 GDP was 82.1 trillion yuan (not updated according to the revised data of China ’s fourth national economic census), which was US $ 19.6 trillion after PPP conversion, accounting for 176 ICP participating economies 16.4%, equivalent to 100.5% of the United States, ranking first in the world. In contrast, according to the exchange rate method, China's GDP in 2017 was 12.1 trillion US dollars, accounting for 15.2% of the world, equivalent to 62.2% of the United States, ranking second in the world.
ICP is an exploratory and research-oriented international statistical cooperation project in China. The PPP value of each economy is calculated by the regional implementing agency and the World Bank. The PPP results are not official statistics of each economy. Of course, China's PPP value does not represent China's official statistical results. In this regard, you can pay attention to the relevant notes in the World Bank report. When using PPP, it should be noted that PPP is more suitable for comparison between economies with similar economic structures, and less suitable for comparison between economies with large differences in economic structures; also note that the PPP reliability of goods products is better In some cases, the PPP reliability of service products is worse.
PPP cannot replace the exchange rate. PPP is the comprehensive price ratio between various economies, covering both tradable and non-tradable prices, while the exchange rate only covers the price of tradable goods. Therefore, PPP cannot be used to replace the exchange rate, nor can a country's PPP value be used to determine whether the country's exchange rate should appreciate or depreciate.
China is still the largest developing country in the world. Calculated according to the PPP method, China ’s GDP in 2017 was US $ 19.6 trillion, ranking first in the world. However, China ’s per capita GDP is estimated to be only 85.3% of the world ’s average. 79) Retreated 11 places. According to the exchange rate method recognized by governments around the world, China's GDP in 2017 still ranks second in the world. In addition, the per capita consumption expenditure of China's PPP law is lower than the world average level, which is also in line with the general characteristics of developing countries.
Reporter: According to the results of the 2017 round of PPP, what impact will it have on China ’s goal of achieving poverty alleviation by 2020?
Relevant person in charge: The World Bank keeps track of the global poverty situation and mainly adopts the international poverty line obtained according to the PPP method. According to the 2011 round of ICP results, the World Bank updated the international poverty line to US $ 1.90 per person per day. After the global 2017 round of ICP results are announced, the World Bank may update the US $ 1.9 standard with new data.
In China, the following two points should be noted when using the international poverty line: China's PPP data does not participate in the formulation of the international poverty line. The current international poverty line is determined by the national poverty line of 15 of the world's poorest countries and their ICP consumption PPP residents, and has nothing to do with China's PPP data. The consumption structure of our country and the 15 poorest countries in the world that are used to formulate the international poverty line are quite different. Therefore, when using the international poverty line, we should make a concrete analysis based on the actual situation.