"Happy assumptions are all similar, but unfortunate assumptions are different."
Tolstoy's novel 'Anna Karenina' in the Russian Great Gate begins with this sentence. It means that in order to build a happy family, it is necessary to avoid all factors that can make you unhappy , such as health, money, childbirth, parenting, education, old age, and accidents .
Evolutionary biologist Professor Gerard Diamond embodies this verse more clearly in his book, Guns, Fungi, and Iron. Many conditions were required for the conversion of ancient wild animals or wild plants to 'livestock' and 'crop', and if any one of them was left out, it would not be livestock or crops and remained wild. "It's common to find the cause of success in a single factor, but in practice you have to avoid a number of causes of failure to succeed," he said. So-called 'Anna Karenina's Law'.
As an access reporter, this 'Anna Karenina's Law' often comes to mind when looking at the aviation industry, which is in a business crisis due to Corona 19. In order for a company to succeed, it needs to achieve more than a reasonable level in various fields such as finance, human resources, labor, education, sales, marketing, public relations, security, security, maintenance, new business discovery, and brand value management. Every day, it's especially true for the airline industry, which has to deal with so many passengers around the world. This means that so-called risk management across all fields, that is, 'crisis management ability' is as important.
From that point of view, our aviation industry may not have been the corner of the house to be happy in the first place. Fly planes, smuggle luxury goods, illegally hire foreign maids, throw cups, talk badly, even assault, fight family-to-family fights over management, plug your full-time housewife daughter into an 'executive', From controversy to controversy of sexual harassment of crew ... . The more I chewed, the more novel and varied things were. For managers like this, hoping for a 'crisis management ability' that will not fail in any field, and perhaps instilling the intellectuals of the Great Moon and the scholars may not be the best fit.
● 'What you see only when you stop' It is
often said that the first class shines in the crisis. This is the crisis. However, the light is not visible. In front of the huge darkness of Corona 19, airline executives are infinitely shabby and dwarfed. What was seen only when the plane stopped was 'management's incompetence' and 'serious report card'.
Korean Air and Asiana Airlines, Jeju Air, Jin Air, T'way Air, and Air Busan's six listed companies reported operating deficits in the first quarter amounting to KRW 422 billion. Recalling that these six companies made an operating profit of 960 billion won in the first quarter of last year just a year ago, it is clear how insufficient their ability to manage the crisis was. During the same period, sales also shrank by 33% (1.93 trillion won), from 5 trillion and 9 trillion won to 3.97 trillion won.
If we add the operating deficits of three unlisted companies (Ista Air, Air Seoul, and Fly Gangwon) that do not disclose their earnings, the operating deficit recorded by nine domestic airlines in the first quarter is estimated to exceed 500 billion won. Asiana Airlines suffered the most losses with a loss of -208 billion won, followed by Jeju Air-66.7 billion won, Korean Air -57 billion won, Air Busan -38.5 billion won, Jin Air -31.3 billion won, Tway Air -22.3 billion It was in order of circle.
Of course, the irresistible external variable, the Corona 19, would have been crucial. Nevertheless, it is true that management's appearance in the face of this crisis of extinction remains unfortunate. In the face of this crisis, families were quarreling over management rights, and on the day of the announcement of emergency management, some companies were overwhelmed by the controversy that two sons of the CEO received special privileges and joined the company. It must be a disappointment to the people and employees.
Earlier, global investor Warren Buffett pointed out, "When it comes to low tide, you can see who was naked and swimming." From his point of view, it is no exaggeration to say that the aviation industry in fact is at the level of 'nude beach'. He wore colorful sunglasses over the sea water, and a nasty hat, but he was barely wearing a swimsuit. Again and again, when the plane stopped, the only things that could be seen were 'management's incompetence' and 'serious report card'.
problem is that this ebon darkness has just begun. The report for the first quarter included the results of the operation in January, before the Corona 19 incident began to take off. In other words, not all of the worst is reflected. But the second quarter is different. The direct damage from Corona 19 will be blatantly captured.
Of course, some countries are planning to ease immigration restrictions, and airlines are planning to resume international flights. Nevertheless, the future is still dark. Basically, being able to go abroad institutionally and actually going passengers is a completely different matter. In the aftermath of the Corona 19 aftermath, even if you can go abroad, there will not be many passengers actually leaving. It is that the travel and tourism sentiment, which occupies the largest portion of passengers, will be difficult to survive for the time being. Cargo and business passengers alone have limitations in improving performance.
It is difficult to be optimistic about domestic routes, which account for less than 10% of total sales. From the 30th to the 5th of last month, for six days, I enjoyed a sparkling special on the Jeju route for the golden holiday, but the subsequent re-proliferation of the 'Itaewon Club Feet' corona spread cold water in the travel demand. If this trend continues until the third peak of the peak season, airlines are likely to be serious about their existence.
●
Given the risky situation of 'don't ask for assistance' , the government has started to provide large-scale support to the airline industry. It is that large-scale financial support is inevitable to protect the 'primary industry' that is the foundation of the national industry. Some scholars also say, "Aerospace is a network-oriented industry, so once it collapses, it is very difficult to rebuild it. Somehow, it is more important to keep it alive."
Nevertheless, some point out that it is more important to blame those who put the company in this crisis and to establish an institutional mechanism to contain them. Basically, the current government-funded funds are not funded by the National Financial Law, so there is no obligation to report their performance. Of course, there is no device to report to the National Assembly. There is a high possibility that they cannot be properly monitored, managed, and supervised, and there is concern that they can be reduced to so-called 'don't ask for support'.
In this regard, civic groups, such as the Solidarity of Participation, point out that the airline's poor management started before Corona19. It means that indiscriminate public funds can be invested in companies that were originally stale under the name of Corona 19. In other words, the intention is to prevent the enormous public funds from falling into a tool to fill the entire family.
Professor Lee Chang-min of Hanyang University's Business Administration Department said, "Would you give disaster relief money to all the people or only 70%? This was the country's encouraging plan to spend 3 trillion won. "Why is it so quiet about Cho Won?" Critics say that the government is not trying to tackle only today's crisis.
● It is predicted
that, despite the large-scale support of airlines on the crossroads of life and death, and because of the nature of the airline industry with high fixed costs, it will be difficult to endure until the second half of the year. Right now, Korean Air plans to overcome the liquidity crisis through a 1 trillion won increase in the amount of 1,200 trillion won in government subsidies, but the situation is not overwhelming.
Hanjin Kal, the parent company, needs at least 240 billion won in 'real bullets' to participate in paid-in capital increase. As of last year, Hanjin Kal's cash and cash equivalents amounted to only KRW 142.1 billion. In the end, it is necessary to raise loans from the financial sector with the equity and real estate held , but it is unclear whether the Corona 19 will be able to receive the full price on time.
Low-cost carriers, whose financial structure is weaker than the two airlines, are literally in serious danger of survival. If Corona 19 continues, the possibility of falling into the so-called 'winner's curse' is raised, as Jeju Air, the largest low-cost airline in Korea that has already acquired Estar Air. The rest of Jin Air, T'way Air, Air Busan, Air Seoul, and Fly Gangwon will be omitted.
● Since the public wants to be responsible for the “responsible state” and “institutional safeguards” of
millions of jobs and the key industries that are the basis of the national industry, many people agree on the need to protect the airline industry. It is not that we should not apply unconditionally, but what the people want is the responsibility of the executives and the use of our blood. Furthermore, it is to ask for an institutional arrangement to secure it. The public is hoping that executives will be hurting to point out that "the crisis in the aviation industry is not just due to Corona19."
In this regard, it is also worth taking into account that the Nippon-Geisai Newspaper in Japan diagnosed the aviation industry in crisis and pointed out that "the aviation industry is supported, but comprehensive efforts such as capital expansion and management improvement are necessary." In addition, the US government is subsidizing $ 25 billion in subsidies to the airline industry (30 trillion and 82.5 billion won), and it is in line with this national desire that it will lend some of these loans. Bloomberg also interpreted that US Treasury Secretary Manusin maintained a prudent position as a lesson by the government to support bailouts to Wall Street banks during the financial crisis in 2008 and to learn from criticism.
● “It's more important to drive safely than to speed up for dispatch time.”
As we do something, we consider the urgency and importance of it. It means that you need to act wisely and properly with what is important and what you need to hurry up. However, sometimes we put urgency ahead of importance. For example, bus drivers are speeding up to keep up with driving hours because they think it is urgent. However, driving safely to your destination is also more important for both you and the passenger.
There is always unexpected harm where profits are. It needs to be weighed around as you gain and lose. Whether the benefit this thing brings is greater than the harm it can cause. If such harm is to be expected, the legal and institutional mechanisms should be made more robust to minimize it. Because it is much more important to go 'safe' than to go fast. Let's watch what the airline will look like in the future, at the viewer's eye level.
(Photo = Yonhap News)
[Interview file] 'My company' when it goes well, 'National company' when it's difficult ... Ask them 'Yeomchi (廉 恥)'
2020-05-18T07:40:30.775Z
"Happy assumptions are all similar, but unfortunate assumptions are different." Tolstoy's novel 'Anna Karenina' in the Russian Great Gate begins with this sentence. It means that in order to build a happy family, it is necessary to avoid all factors that can make you unhappy, such as health, money, childbirth, parenting, education, old age, and accidents.
Source: sbskr