Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, May 17 (Song Yafen) As the impact of the epidemic on the global economy has further deteriorated, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Georgieva said recently that he will announce the global economic forecast in June The downward revision.
In an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei Clients, several economic experts said that due to the increasing global spread of the epidemic in the second quarter, the final data may be lower than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Data from the World Bank show that the global GDP growth rates in 2008 and 2009 were 1.85% and -1.68%, respectively.
Under such circumstances, how should China respond to fiscal and monetary policies?
In the second quarter, the multinational economy may be hit hard
The "World Economic Outlook Report" released by the IMF on April 14 pointed out that due to the impact of the new coronavirus pandemic, the global economy is expected to shrink by 3% in 2020. The latest statement of the IMF president means that the global economy will shrink to below 3% by 2020.
Jia Jinjing, assistant dean of the Chongyang Institute of Finance at the Renmin University of China and director of the Macro Research Department, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei client: "The global economic growth in 2020 is definitely shrinking from the 3% forecast by the IMF in the first quarter. The second quarter is an epidemic. The stage that has the most severe impact on the European and American economies. If Europe and the United States generally lose 30% in the second quarter, it is estimated that the global economic decline will exceed 5% throughout the year, and the decline will also exceed the 2009 financial crisis.
Eastern Securities chief economist Shao Yu also expects the global economy to shrink to -4% or even -5%.
A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in the United States recently predicted that the U.S. GDP will drop significantly by 34.9% in the second quarter of 2019.
Goldman Sachs also stated in a report on the 13th that the US GDP in the second quarter is expected to decline by 39% and the annual economic growth rate will decline by 6.5%.
The situation in the euro zone is also not optimistic. The spring forecast report released by the European Commission on May 6 shows that the GDP of the 27 EU countries will fall by 7.5% in 2020.
So, when can the global economy ease? Lian Ping, chief economist and chief of the Institute of Zhixin Investment, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that the epidemic in the United States has not been significantly alleviated, and the Republican Party has already relaxed the prevention and control of the economy. Under such circumstances, there is uncertainty as to whether it will be affected by the second wave of the epidemic in the future. Therefore, it is difficult to say that the situation will ease in the next two quarters. On the contrary, there may be further repetitions. The specific impact cannot be judged yet.
Su Jian, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University and director of the Center for National Economic Research at Peking University, also believes that this year's global economy has great difficulty in achieving positive growth, and basically can't do it. "The severity of the epidemic is far beyond people's imagination, and there is no hope of a complete solution. The end of the epidemic globally depends on the country with the worst governance capacity and medical resources, because this virus is very contagious, It is impossible to isolate any country, so as long as one country has poor governance, the world cannot be taken lightly. In this case, the epidemic economy will last for a long time, possibly next year, and the result will be the global economic situation this year. not optimistic."
How to deal with China's fiscal and monetary policies?
In the face of the current world economic development situation, we must try our best to reduce the adverse impact of the world economy on China's economy. How should China respond to fiscal and monetary policies?
In this regard, Jia Jinjing said: "In this case, from the perspective of monetary and fiscal policy, it must be more active."
Shao Yu, chief economist of Orient Securities pointed out that there is room for further development of China's fiscal policy, but in general, in the context of a relatively large global shrinkage, it is difficult for China to formulate a higher or relative Higher level growth target. At present, most of China ’s policies are hedging and not strongly irritating, so I feel that we can only continue to do certain policy operations on the issuance of special government bonds, including the release of monetary policy, and the space for RRR and interest rate cuts, but it may be It is difficult to reach an stimulus level as in 2008, whether it is the proportion of fiscal to GDP, or the degree of monetary easing.
Lian Ping also believes that China should increase its hedging efforts. "If the global epidemic has not eased in the third quarter, China's relevant policies may be even more active, or even worse. In the next step, we need to further improve the forward-looking and flexible policies. I think China's fiscal policy There is room for more positive, and there is room for further loosening of monetary policy. For example, there is room for further reductions in the reserve ratio and interest rates. "
However, subject to the impact of the epidemic on the economy, some experts believe that fiscal policy may be limited.
Su Jian said that China's fiscal policy is subject to too many factors, mainly due to the dilemma caused by the decline in fiscal revenue and rising expenditure under the impact of the epidemic. Under such circumstances, it is very difficult to implement an expansionary fiscal policy. Therefore, the difficulty of China's current fiscal policy is not how to act, but how to raise funds. At present, issuing national debt and disposing of state-owned assets should be relatively good methods. Tax cuts and increased government expenditures (including infrastructure expenditures and transfer payments) are all feasible methods. Lowering social security charges, highway tolls, etc. are also good methods, but the premise of these is that there must be another source of income. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
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