From the “backflow” in the east to the central and western regions, from “secondary production” to “tertiary production”
-the aging trend of migrant workers appears
Economic Daily · China Economic Net reporter Lin Huocan
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, the total number of migrant workers in China increased by 2.41 million from the previous year, an increase of 0.8%. There have been new changes in the flow of migrant workers, the employment capacity of migrant workers in the central and western regions has been further enhanced, and more and more migrant workers have chosen to engage in the tertiary industry. This reflects that with the rapid development of new urbanization in the central and western regions, the industry transfer in the eastern region is being carried out in an orderly manner. At the same time, as the share of GDP continues to increase, the tertiary industry with less labor intensity is also increasingly attracting younger generation of migrant workers.
The migrant workers group is an important force to promote economic and social development. Recently, the "Monitoring Survey Report of Migrant Workers in 2019" released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in 2019, the scale of migrant workers in China continued to expand, reaching a total of 290.77 million, an increase of 2.41 million or 0.8% over the previous year.
In recent years, with the continuous acceleration of China's industrialization and urbanization process, many new changes have taken place in the flow of migrant workers. For example, the employment capacity of migrant workers in the central and western regions has been further enhanced, and more and more migrant workers have chosen to engage in the tertiary industry.
Behind the new changes in the flow of migrant workers, what new changes are reflected in China's economic transformation and development? As China's economy moves towards high-quality development, what new requirements will be imposed on the labor ability and quality of migrant workers? Relevant experts were interviewed by reporters from Economic Daily.
Midwestern absorption capacity becomes stronger
In 2019, among China's migrant workers, local migrant workers reached 116.52 million, an increase of 820,000 from the previous year, an increase of 0.7%; migrant workers were 17.425 million, an increase of 1.59 million from the previous year, an increase of 0.9%.
Where have the migrant workers gone? From the monitoring situation, the number of migrant workers employed in the eastern region decreased by 1.08 million compared with the previous year. In contrast, the ability of the central and western regions to absorb migrant workers has further increased to 123.96 million, an increase of 3.52 million from the previous year.
Li Zuojun, deputy director of the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that with the transformation and development of the eastern region, labor-intensive and export-oriented enterprises have decreased. Moreover, the process of machine replacement is accelerating, and enterprise labor is also decreasing. In contrast, relying on policy opportunities such as the rise of the central region, the development of the western region, and poverty alleviation, the central and western regions accelerated the undertaking of industrial transfers in the eastern region. Workers find employment channels nearby.
"In the process of industrial transfer in the eastern region, central and western provinces have natural labor advantages and institutional environmental advantages in absorbing some industries with lower marginal transportation costs." Li Xin, a professor at the School of Statistics of Beijing Normal University, said that in recent years, the vast majority of the central and western regions Regional railway, civil aviation, electric power and other infrastructure have been constantly improved, which has laid a good foundation for the further development of the economy and also provided strong support for the supply of jobs.
The accelerated development of new urbanization in the central and western regions is also an important factor in attracting employment for migrant workers. "According to the" National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) ", China will guide the urbanization of 100 million people in the central and western regions, which will help guide the orderly transfer of industries and further narrow the development gap between the eastern, central and western regions." Li Xin It is said that at present, except for some provincial capital cities, the restrictions on urban settlement have been basically eliminated in China's central and western regions, which has an important role in attracting labor return.
"Overall, the employment capacity of the central and western regions has been further strengthened, indicating that China's regional balanced development has been further strengthened, and the gap between the central and western regions and the eastern region has gradually narrowed." The western region has undertaken industrial transfer in the eastern region with relatively favorable land prices and cheap labor, and its employment absorption capacity is becoming stronger and stronger. Many migrant workers in the central and western regions can be employed on the spot.
Wang Bin pointed out that the speed of urbanization in the central and western regions and the vigorous promotion of infrastructure construction have created more jobs. The poverty alleviation efforts have been intensified, and agricultural poverty alleviation projects, industrial parks, poverty alleviation workshops, and public welfare posts have attracted a large number of migrant workers in poverty-stricken areas to find employment nearby. In addition, the wage growth rate in the central and western regions is faster than that in the eastern regions, which further enhances the attractiveness of migrant workers for local employment.
The younger generation is more "choosing"
From the employment situation, in 2019, the proportion of migrant workers in the tertiary industry was 51%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year; the proportion of migrant workers in the secondary industry was 48.6%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year.
The reporter noticed that in the tertiary industry, jobs in transportation, warehousing, postal services and accommodation and catering were more “favored”, and the employment of migrant workers accounted for 6.9%, respectively, an increase of 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous year. In the secondary industry, the proportion of migrant workers engaged in manufacturing has declined compared with the previous year, and the proportion of migrant workers engaged in construction has increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points over the previous year.
"The development of China's tertiary industry continues to accelerate, the proportion of GDP continues to increase, the number of jobs created also increases rapidly, and the labor force is more concentrated in the tertiary industry. This also conforms to the general law of industrial development." Li Xin said that as China's labor The productivity level is constantly improving. At this stage, the non-tradable sector, which is dominated by the service industry, has replaced the tradable sector and has become the main source of new urban employment in China.
Wang Bin believes that the "three two one" industrial structure is an important manifestation of a developed economy, and the proportion of China's three industrial structures is developing in this trend and direction. With becoming the largest industry in the national economy, the tertiary industry has also become the industry with the largest number of employed people. At present, the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry has reached 55%.
"The tertiary industry includes both high-end service industries such as finance and software, as well as labor-intensive industries such as catering, express delivery, and tourism. The demand for labor in these industries is greater." Wang Bin said that the service industry has flexible employment forms and many The officially employed population, such as urban housekeeping services and ride-hailing drivers, is also one of the important factors for the tertiary industry to become the main force for absorbing employment.
Li Zuojun said that in recent years, the education level of migrant workers in China has generally improved. From the monitoring report, the proportion of migrant workers with college education or above increased by 0.2 percentage points over the previous year. With the continuous improvement of the labor force's education level, coupled with the rapid development of cultural tourism and other tertiary industries, more labor force has been attracted to gather in the tertiary industry.
"More importantly, the labor intensity of migrant workers in the tertiary industry is generally lighter than that of manufacturing and construction, but the average monthly income level is not large. The average monthly income level of the transportation, storage and postal industry is even higher than that of manufacturing. Industry and construction industry. Under this circumstance, some younger generation of migrant workers with relatively higher education level are more inclined to engage in tertiary industry with less labor intensity. "Li Zuojun said.
Supply and demand misalignment to be resolved
The monitoring report shows that in 2019, the average age of migrant workers in China was 40.8 years, an increase of 0.6 years from the previous year. In terms of age structure, the proportion of migrant workers aged 40 and below was 50.6%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous year; the proportion of migrant workers aged 50 and above was 24.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year, accounting for nearly 5 years Than every year. This also means that the aging problem of migrant workers in China is becoming increasingly prominent.
"Although China's total population exceeds 1.4 billion, the supply of a new generation of migrant workers is already inferior to that of the older generation of migrant workers." Li Zuojun said that unlike the past, migrant workers used to work in cities for the purpose of "working", and now many young migrant workers enter cities Willing to start a business as a "boss". This has also exacerbated the “difficult recruitment” of some positions and the increasing age of employment.
In Li Zuojun's view, to deal with the aging problem of migrant workers, on the one hand, we must continue to increase the training of older migrant workers and improve their ability to master basic network information technology applications; on the other hand, we must also increase the number of younger generation farmers. Strengthen labor training and improve labor skills; we must also steadily increase the wages and treatment of first-line posts in the construction industry and manufacturing industry to increase their attractiveness.
"Aging of migrant workers is a historical trend." Wang Bin suggested that at present, one is to speed up industrial transfer and upgrade. To fundamentally prevent the labor gap caused by the aging of migrant workers, we must accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, transform and upgrade traditional industries, and match the demand for labor with the industrial structure.
The second is to speed up the implementation of machine replacement. At present, Guangdong, Zhejiang and other eastern coastal areas have begun to implement this strategy. Practice has proved that the improvement of factory automation and intelligence can significantly reduce the demand for ordinary workers.
In addition, to increase the labor productivity of the labor force, hedging the problem of insufficient labor force. In particular, we must improve the quality and level of education, improve the quality of the labor force, that is, raise the level of human capital, and promote the development of high-quality economy with the improvement of labor productivity.