(Economic Observation) Revengeful consumption or retaliatory saving? Will China enter a "low desire society" after the epidemic?
China News Agency, Beijing, May 17 (Reporter Chen Su) After the epidemic, did Chinese people choose to retaliate or save money? A series of recently released data gives the answer.
The forecast of retaliatory consumption is based on the SARS period. After SARS was controlled in 2003, consumption has rebounded rapidly. Therefore, some organizations expect that consumption will also rebound rapidly after the new coronary pneumonia epidemic is controlled.
The judgment of retaliatory saving comes from the data of the central bank in the first quarter. The data shows that in the first quarter, household deposits increased by 6.47 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), which is equivalent to an average of more than 70 billion yuan of deposits flowing into banks every day.
However, the latest data overturns both judgments.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, from January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 2,871.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, a decrease of 8.3 percentage points from March, and an increase of 0.32% from the previous month. This data is far from "revenge" Sexual consumption "expectations.
According to data released by the central bank, the deposits in the household sector in April changed from a sharp increase in the first quarter to a reduction of 799.6 billion yuan. Resident deposits also began to flow out of wallets.
Why did the expected retaliatory consumption not appear? Wang Jun, a member of the Academic Committee of the China International Economic Exchange Center, told reporters from China News Service that the resumption of production and production in April was carried out smoothly. The production end is close to normal, but some industries that rely heavily on offline are still affected by the epidemic, so the consumption data has recovered slowly . In the later period, as offline consumption places such as restaurants continue to return to normal, consumption will rebound further. Some consumer demand that has been suppressed due to the epidemic, such as automobiles, real estate, cultural entertainment, etc., will rebound significantly, but the previous losses will be The loss is lost and will not be replaced again. Due to the continuation of the overseas epidemic, the public ’s unfavorable expectations of employment and income prospects have not completely disappeared. "Consumption will gradually become normal, but retaliatory consumption will not appear temporarily."
"Reducing household sector deposits in April is a sign of a recovery in consumption." Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that many cultural and tourist sites will resume business in May, and the speed of consumption recovery will increase further in the future, and the total retail sales of consumer goods Speed is expected to change from negative to positive. However, due to insufficient external demand affecting consumer spending expectations, large-scale long-term retaliatory consumption will not occur.
Affected by the continuation of the epidemic, the income level of Chinese residents has fallen. Some industries that have been severely affected have to cut wages and lay off employees. Residents' consumption is expected to decline. Some people have already said that they will begin to "tighten their lives." After the epidemic, will China enter the "low-desire society" like Japan?
Wang Jun said that China's consumption growth rate has gradually slowed down in recent years, but China will not enter the "low-desire society" where prices continue to slump, income growth is slow, and consumption desires are low. The Chinese market is very large, the population is stratified and graded obviously, some people are degrading their consumption while others are upgrading their consumption. The situation in big cities and third- and fourth-tier cities is obviously different. In addition, China is experiencing more and more good consumption Experiences, such as high-quality products, online shopping, fast delivery, etc., can also stimulate people's desire to consume to a certain extent.
Zhao Ping said that “low-desire society” is the opposite of “high-desire society”. China ’s consumer culture has always focused on rational consumption, and living within its means is the consumption habit of most people. China is not in the “high-desire society” stage. So it will not enter the so-called "low desire society". “After the epidemic, residents’ consumption will become more rational, but it ’s not that consumer desires have been stifled. As the Chinese economy continues to pick up, further strengthening residents ’income capacity will enhance consumption capacity and unlock consumption potential.”
From the perspective of loan data, the Chinese people's consumer desire is still strong. In April, household sector loans increased by 666.9 billion yuan, of which residents' short-term loans increased by 228 billion yuan, an increase of 119.3 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 118.7 billion yuan, over Double.
Faced with the current situation where consumption is recovering weak, how should consumption be promoted?
"The most important thing is to achieve" six stability "through the" six guarantees. "Zhao Ping said that through stable fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stabilize employment and achieve stable growth of residents' income is the fundamental to promote consumer compensation Solutions and important premises. At present, many countries implement loose monetary policies to stimulate the economy. In fact, they will push up prices and transmit them to the Chinese market through imports. Under the current situation of stable growth, price stabilization is an important policy focus to promote consumer replenishment. Enterprises should also be encouraged to provide more new products and services, create new formats for better experience, and stimulate consumer desire.
Wang Jun said that currently around 10 billion consumer coupons have been issued in various places, which is only a small amount of money compared to the annual consumption of several tens of trillions. It is recommended to work hard from the central level to expand the scale of cash subsidies and consumer coupons issued. (Finish)