Respond to new market challenges and take measures to stabilize employment

——Investigation on China's employment market prosperity index under the epidemic

　　Editor's note

　　Employment is related to national economy and people's livelihood, and even more to thousands of households. Since the outbreak of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, General Secretary Xi Jinping has paid close attention to the impact of the epidemic on the employment situation. He pointed out that the more the epidemic occurs, the more attention must be paid to ensuring and improving people's livelihood. Employment, financial stability, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment, and expectation work, fully implement the tasks of ensuring residents ’employment, basic people ’s livelihood, market participants, food and energy security, supply chain stability, and grassroots operations. Overcome the adverse effects of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. " The China Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China and Zhilian Recruitment jointly launched the CIER (China Employment Market Prosperity Index), which monitored and analyzed the changes in the employment prosperity of various industries and regions under the epidemic, and proposed the next step to stabilize employment and promote development Countermeasures and suggestions.

　　Tax reduction, credit increase, cost reduction, and time limit replacement, "point-to-point" organization returns to work, policies precisely weave dense security network ... A series of "real money" assistance policies are helping enterprises to resume production and stabilize employment. The vigorous emergence of new forms of business, the new economy of innovation and entrepreneurship ... is looking for opportunities in crisis, and our country's employment is constantly being injected with new impetus.

　　To stabilize employment is to stabilize people's livelihood and confidence. Despite the impact of the epidemic, China's employment is facing new challenges, but with the implementation of the employment priority policy, the employment "warm up" signal is constantly being released.

　　Under the impact of the epidemic, how has the total amount and structure of China's employment market changed, especially after the epidemic occurred, what is the employment status of different regions, different industries, and different enterprises? The China Employment Market Prosperity Index CIER (the ratio of the number of recruited jobs to the number of job seekers) jointly launched by the China Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China and Zhilian Recruitment reflects the overall trend and prosperity of the Chinese job market. The indicator is analyzed using the Zhilian recruitment website data. The data involves 55 core cities, 2.1 million recruitment companies, 15.68 million recruitment positions, a total of 120 million recruitment needs and 84.82 million job postings. Through the dynamic changes of supply and demand indicators such as different industries, different regions, different city levels, different business types, etc., it reflects the changes in the ratio of job vacancies and job seekers in the job market, and then monitors the changes in the prosperity of the Chinese job market.

　　The analysis found that in the first quarter of 2020, due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, China's job market sentiment index declined significantly. Combined with the influence of seasonal factors, the CIER index has dropped significantly compared with the previous quarter. With the emergence of the prevention and control effect of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the number of companies that have resumed production has increased, and the demand for recruitment has increased in March and April, but at the same time, the number of returnees after the Spring Festival and the number of college graduates seeking jobs in spring has increased. The employment prosperity index in the second quarter is expected to pick up sequentially. At present, the following characteristics of employment in the first quarter:

　　1. "House economy" into a new reservoir for employment

　　Wang Na, a student at a college of education in Xiamen, missed the relevant examination due to the epidemic. She has a certain understanding of infant care, and with the help of teachers in the Employment Guidance Center, she has set up her own public account for childcare knowledge to introduce scientific childcare knowledge and ideas. The animation popular science she produced is lively and interesting, and soon became a famous "child care blogger", and received a platform to pay for the publication of science popularization articles. "The stretched breath finally let go, and I can support myself even if I can't find a suitable job for the time being." Wang Na said. After that, good news came one after another. The heads of some early education institutions, kindergartens and other institutions took the initiative to extend an olive branch to her, and she became an employment expert holding several offers.

　　College students are an important part of the employment group. Due to the impact of the epidemic, there have been some structural contradictions in the employment of college students this year. In education / training / community / biology / pharmaceutical / medical and other occupations, there is a shortage of college students and the employment situation is better. In the public relations, IT quality management, advertising, exhibition and other industries, there has been a relatively concentrated number of job seekers.

　　Under the control of the epidemic, the demand for recruitment of offline education-related jobs has increased slightly, while the demand for recruitment of online education-related jobs has increased dramatically. The demand for recruitment in the education / training / academic industry increased by 1.27% year-on-year, but the number of job applicants fell by 5.41%, and the CIER value increased from the same period last year.

　　In the first quarter of 2020, the education / training / college industry ranks first, the employment situation is the best, the intermediary service industry drops to second place, insurance, professional services / consulting (accounting / legal / human resources, etc.), Internet / E-commerce, outsourcing services, electronic technology / semiconductors / integrated circuits, real estate / building / building materials / engineering and hotels / catering and other industries also have relatively good employment prosperity. The number of recruitment needs in the entertainment / sports / leisure industry has risen against the trend and is greater than the increase in the number of job applicants, and the CIER index has increased month-on-month.

　　The entertainment / sports / leisure industry has benefited from the "home economy" as a new reservoir of employment. The epidemic has restricted the operation and consumption activities of offline entertainment venues, but it has stimulated the growth of the "house economy", especially the live broadcast economy. The recruitment demand for video anchor positions in the film, television, media, publishing, and printing professions has increased rapidly year-on-year, and the demand for related auxiliary positions has also increased significantly; the CIER index of the entertainment / sports / leisure industry has also increased year-on-year, and the growth rate is relatively large. The video anchor positions in this industry The demand for recruitment has grown rapidly year-on-year, and the demand for auxiliary positions such as activists / writers / writers, photographers / photographers has increased. Although the number of job applicants in these positions has also increased, it is far less than the increase in recruitment needs. According to the "Job Recruitment Report for Spring 2020 Live Broadcasting Industry" by Zhilian Recruitment, within one month after the Spring Festival this year, the number of job postings related to live broadcasting increased by 83.95% year-on-year, the number of recruits increased by 132.55%, and the expansion in second and third tier cities was obvious.

　　During the epidemic, most people were "homes" at home, and the demand for the distribution of necessities such as fresh food, fast-moving consumer goods, and supermarkets increased significantly. To solve this problem, "flexible employment" and "shared labor" came into being. Some enterprises such as Ali quickly set up a "flexible employment" platform. Idle employees of catering merchants everywhere can work as part-time courier riders or convenience store employees, while also solving the urgent needs of labor-intensive enterprises.

　　The knowledge economy continues to empower professional services / consulting industries, and businesses are sinking to second- and third-tier cities. At present, China is in the development stage of economic transformation and upgrading, and enterprises are also seeking a higher-quality development method to improve the quality of growth through informationization, digitization, and optimization of the talent structure. The professional service / consulting industry for enterprises plays an important role in this and also gains development opportunities. In the first quarter, the professional services / consulting industry resisted the impact of the epidemic. The number of recruited jobs remained the same as the same period last year. The number of recruited jobs in second-tier and third-tier cities increased by 9% and 34% year-on-year.

　　The demand for recruitment in the logistics / warehousing industry and related positions in the "Takeaway Economy" has increased. The limited offline consumption in the midst of the epidemic has stimulated the development of the online economy, coupled with new models such as live broadcast e-commerce, driving a new round of growth, and the recruitment needs of the logistics / warehousing industry have risen against the trend. In the first quarter, the number of job openings in the industry increased by 11% year-on-year, and the number of new first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities increased by 13%, 13%, and 33%, respectively. The “Takeaway Economy” has driven the demand for food delivery staff, restaurant waiters, and kitchen workers to increase year-on-year, which has led to an overall increase in the number of culinary / cooking / food R & D career recruitment needs, and the CIER index has increased year-on-year.

　　2. The employment situation in the central, eastern, second and third tier cities is good, and the competition for employment in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is fierce

　　The research team selected 55 sample cities according to the division of administrative regions and classified them to calculate the CIER index for the first quarter of 2020 in different administrative regions. Among them, 34 cities in the eastern region, accounting for 61.8%; 7 cities in the central region, accounting for 12.7%; 9 cities in the western region, accounting for 16.4%; 5 cities in the northeast region, accounting for 9.1%.

　　The employment prosperity in the central and eastern regions is relatively high. In the first quarter, the CIER index in the central region surpassed the eastern region and became the highest region, while the CIER index in the northeast region remained the lowest. With the accelerated rise and continued efforts of the central region, the gap between the CIER index in the eastern, central and western regions has further narrowed. Compared with the same period last year, the number of recruitment needs and the number of job applicants in each region are decreasing. Among them, the number of hiring demand in the eastern region decreased relatively year-on-year, and the CIER index fell; the number of hiring demand in the western region decreased more than the number of job applicants, and the CIER index also fell; Slightly increased.

　　The employment market in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions is relatively loose. The CIER index of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was 0.56 in the first quarter, and the job market was still relatively tight. Compared with the previous quarter, affected by the decrease in the number of recruitment needs and the increase in the number of job applicants, the regional CIER index declined seasonally; compared with the same period last year, the number of recruitment needs decreased by 22.03%, the number of job applicants decreased by 32.90%, the CIER index ratio The same period last year increased by 0.05. The employment market sentiment index in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions is relatively high. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the number of recruitment needs in most cities in the region has decreased, the number of job applicants has increased, and the CIER index has declined seasonally. Compared with the first quarter of 2019, the number of recruitment needs in cities such as Nantong, Jiaxing and Huai'an in the Yangtze River Delta area increased, while the number of recruitment needs in other cities decreased, and the CIER index fell; The increase in the number of recruitment needs in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased, and the CIER index rose.

　　The CIER index of the second and third tier cities is relatively high. In the first quarter of 2020, the CIER index of first-tier cities is still relatively low, and the CIER index of second-tier and third-tier cities is relatively high. Compared with the same period of last year, the number of hiring demand and the number of job applicants in first-tier and new-tier cities both decreased relatively. The CIER index was basically the same as last year or slightly increased; the number of hiring demand in second-tier cities decreased by 9.70%, which was greater than the number of job applicants The decline, the CIER index fell; the number of recruiting demand in third-tier cities increased by 1.79%, the number of job applicants increased by 0.64%, and the CIER index increased.

　　The CIER index of the second- and third-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the eastern coastal areas was higher in the first quarter, such as Huai'an and Wenzhou. As a new first-tier city, Ningbo also has a high CIER index. Although Wuhan ’s CIER index is relatively high this quarter, it does not mean that its job market is loose, but that it is the result of the closure of the city that has caused both ends of supply and demand to suspend. Compared with the same period last year, the number of recruitment needs in Wuhan decreased by 13.62% and the number of job applicants decreased by 56.84%, so the CIER index increased. In fact, Wuhan, as a new first-tier city, has a relatively strong recruitment demand. The number of recruitment needs in January increased by 12.40% compared with the same period last year, but the number of job applicants fell by 28.79%, and the CIER index rose; affected by the closure of the city, the recruitment demand in February and March The number of people has dropped, and the number of job applicants has also declined under the restriction of staff mobility, and the range is greater. Therefore, the CIER index in February and March also increased.

　　3. Large-scale enterprises and private enterprises have a relatively high level of prosperity, and the situation of SMEs is tense

　　The analysis of the survey data shows that the new economic enterprises have become the favored jobs for college students due to their high technological content and good development space. Many large enterprises and private enterprises have opened the door for college students through a warm spring move that has been set on the spot and become the place where their careers start.

　　The CIER index of large enterprises is relatively high, and the CIER index of medium, small and micro enterprises is relatively low. Among them, the CIER index for large enterprises is 1.27; the CIER index for medium-sized enterprises is 0.63; the CIER index for small and micro enterprises is 0.61 and 0.70 respectively, and the employment situation is relatively poor. On a year-on-year basis, in the first quarter, the number of recruiting needs and number of job applicants of all types of companies were decreasing. The number of large and medium-sized companies' demand for recruitment fell more than the number of job applicants. The CIER index fell year-on-year. The decrease in the number of applicants is relatively large, but due to the close range of changes in supply and demand, the CIER index basically remained at the same level last year.

　　In the first quarter, the employment situation of private enterprises was relatively good, and the employment competition of state-owned enterprises was relatively fierce. Specifically, the CIER index of private enterprises is still the largest at 0.81; the CIER index of joint ventures, joint-stock enterprises, listed companies and wholly foreign-owned enterprises is about 0.60; the CIER index of state-owned enterprises is still the smallest, at 0.40, and employment competition is relatively fierce. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, affected by the decrease in the number of recruiting needs and the seasonal increase in the number of job applicants, the CIER index of all types of companies declined in the first quarter. Compared with the same period of last year, the number of private companies' recruitment demand decreased by 3.50%, and the decrease was less than the number of job applicants. The CIER index increased slightly year-on-year; Greater than the number of job seekers, the CIER index fell year-on-year. In particular, the number of joint ventures and wholly foreign-owned enterprises had a relatively large decrease in the number of recruiting needs, which decreased by 38.68% and 37% respectively.

　　4. Policy recommendations to stabilize employment and promote development

　　Prioritize job security. In order to guarantee employment, we should fully understand the internal connection and consistency between guaranteeing growth and guaranteeing employment. It is recommended to introduce a mechanism for evaluating the employment effect of investment projects; the central government should substantially increase pre-school education, medical and health facilities, network software and hardware in less-developed areas. Investment related to the growth of human capital; to raise the expectation of long-term stable growth of capital gains, to further reduce the operating costs of enterprises, and to make tax cuts and fees long-term; to study and improve labor participation rate, implement a flexible retirement system, and provide sufficient manpower for sustained economic growth Resources.

　　Actively promote the development of new technologies, new economies, new formats and new employment. Actively develop new flexible employment in the Internet era, and seek innovative solutions to new problems and challenges arising from platform employment such as e-commerce, online car rental, and live broadcast; actively promote the replacement of dangerous and difficult positions by artificial intelligence, while In order to avoid artificially promoting the substitution of machines, this will cause a policy that will adversely affect the expansion of employment.

　　Strengthen the flow of information and improve the matching efficiency of the job market. Perfecting the job market information platform can effectively reduce frictional unemployment and improve the efficiency of job market matching. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen the release of comprehensive job vacancy information covering government departments at all levels, primary and secondary schools, medical and health institutions, and other public departments; promote occupational classification, career outlook analysis and forecast; release labor participation rate, different regions and different groups of people Employment and unemployment information; establish and publish employment quality indicators; promptly and publicly publish the enrollment and graduation general and structural information of various schools.

　　Deepen the reform of education and training to improve the employability of laborers. At present, China's job market is faced with the contradictions and problems of the total amount, structure and quality. To solve the long-term problem that has plagued the employment structure, it is necessary to continuously improve the ability of job seekers to respond to changes in the external world. To this end, all types of school sponsors and training institutions should pay attention to the new economy, new formats and new employment, establish an all-round internship base that combines industry, education and research, and take improving all qualities and abilities as the central task of reforming the personnel training system and system. Special attention should be paid to the cultivation of hard skills and soft skills, and earnestly improve the ability of workers to create value in working and serving society.

　　(Author: China Institute of Employment Task Force Task Force members of Renmin University of China: Zeng Xiangquan, Liu, Geng Lin, Mao Yufei)