Deposits have fallen, why hasn't "retaliatory" consumption come
Our reporter Chen Guojing
The April financial data released by the People's Bank of China recently showed that RMB deposits increased by 1.27 trillion yuan in April, an increase of 1.01 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, household deposits decreased by 799.6 billion yuan. While personal deposits decreased, personal loans increased more in April. RMB loans increased by 1.7 trillion yuan in April, an increase of 681.8 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sub-sectors, household sector loans increased by 666.9 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 228 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 438.9 billion yuan.
Since April, the "one reduction and one increase" of personal deposits and loans has become the new focus-is it "revenge" consumption?
"Residents' mid-to-long-term loan demand may stem from the replenishment of the demand for home and car purchase after the epidemic prevention and control gradually become loose." Mingxin, chief researcher of fixed income of CITIC Securities, believes clearly.
With the release of some of the depressed consumer demand in the earlier period and the implementation of various policies to stimulate consumption, residents' consumption has rebounded significantly. For example, car sales have recently turned noticeably warmer. In April, car sales ended 21 consecutive months of decline. During the "May Day" period, automobile sales of key monitoring companies in Shanghai, Chongqing and Zhejiang increased by 49.6%, 28.5% and 8.8% year-on-year respectively.
This trend can also be seen from changes in consumer credit data. In April, the short-term loans of residents increased by 228 billion yuan, which was an increase of 118.7 billion yuan from the increase of 10.93 billion yuan in the same period last year. The medium- and long-term loans of residents, mainly mortgage loans, increased by 438.9 billion yuan in April, compared with 416.5 billion yuan in the same period last year.
Ruan Jianhong, director of the investigation and statistics department of the People's Bank of China, said in the first quarter financial data conference that household loans in the first quarter increased by more than 600 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the epidemic and the substantial reduction in residents' consumption and house purchases. As the epidemic prevention and control measures are gradually relaxed or lifted, the demand for personal consumption loans and home purchase loans will also be released.
For the decline in personal deposits, many factors need to be considered.
Every April, personal deposits have declined. Household deposits decreased by 624.8 billion yuan in April 2019, household deposits decreased by 1.32 trillion yuan in April 2018, and household deposits decreased by 1.22 trillion yuan in April 2017. From this perspective, in April of this year, the decrease in personal deposits was closely related to seasonal fluctuations in deposits.
Regarding the reduction of household deposits in April, Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, believes that seasonal factors and the impact of bank deposits ’“ time ”should be considered. From the data of the past years, the first month after each quarter, the resident deposits have declined, which has a great relationship with the timing of the bank's wealth management product sales.
The decrease in resident deposits is also related to capital market trends. Chen Ji, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center, believes that household deposits fell by 799.6 billion yuan and deposits by non-banking financial institutions increased by 857.1 billion yuan. This is a phenomenon of deposit migration in the upward phase of the stock market. Wen Bin said that many savings funds are now flowing to funds, wealth management and capital markets, which is also an important reason for the decline in savings.
The central bank's monetary policy report for the first quarter pointed out that the epidemic directly led to a decline in the income of residents and businesses, causing consumption and investment to shrink. This is reflected in the year-on-year slowdown in demand-side indicators. Since this year, consumer spending on retail, catering, and tourism has declined significantly.
In the first quarter, the People's Bank of China conducted a questionnaire survey of 20,000 urban depositors in 50 cities across the country. The results showed that residents' willingness to consume has declined and their willingness to save has increased. In the first quarter, the income perception index was 41.6%, a decrease of 11.0 percentage points from the previous quarter; residents who tended to "more consumption" accounted for 22.0% in the first quarter, a decrease of 6.0 percentage points from the previous quarter; residents inclined to "more savings" 53.0%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points from the previous quarter.
In the first four months of this year, RMB deposits increased by 2.77 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, household deposits increased by 226.5 billion yuan year-on-year. This is due to the impact of the epidemic and the reduction in residents' consumption. On the other hand, due to the country's increased support for people's livelihood, the nominal income of residents has maintained positive growth.