The April financial data released by the People's Bank of China on the 11th showed that financial support for the real economy has been further strengthened, which has hedged the impact of the epidemic. In particular, financial institutions have actively adjusted internal management and assessment policies to increase loans. Experts said that the current credit supply has been significantly enlarged, and financial data has grown against the trend, effectively supporting the real economy. At the same time, we should continue to further guide the orderly reduction of LPR, push down the real interest rate of loans, and help repair and boost effective demand.
M2 increased by 11.1% year-on-year
The data shows that at the end of April, the balance of broad currency (M2) was 209.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1 and 2.6 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year; the balance of narrow currency (M1) was 57.02 trillion yuan , An increase of 5.5% year-on-year, the growth rate was 0.5 and 2.6 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the same period of last year.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said that in response to the unprecedented impact of the epidemic on China's economic and social development, the central bank comprehensively strengthened the counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy, continued to invest in base currency, lowered the standard to release mid- and long-term funds, and grasped the pace and strength of open market operations. Promote the simultaneous growth of broad money M2 and narrow money supply M1.
Chen Ji, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center, believes that the rebound in M2 growth shows that on the one hand, the effect of monetary policy to support the real economy to recover from the impact of the epidemic has begun to appear; The rapid first rebound also indicates that the Chinese economy has a solid foundation for continued rebound since the second quarter after experiencing a rapid bottoming in the first quarter.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that the M1 growth rate in April was the highest growth rate in the past 22 months. An important reason is that with the further acceleration of the resumption of production and production in the current month, the activities of micro entities such as enterprises have increased, and demand deposits have increased. In addition, real estate sales activities continued to pick up in April, which was not only reflected in the increase in residential mortgages slightly higher than the same period last year, but also accelerated the growth of demand deposits of housing companies and other related companies.
Loans are growing fast
Statistics show that RMB loans increased by 1.7 trillion yuan in April, an increase of 681.8 billion yuan year-on-year. Yuan Yaxun, a macro analyst at the China Mind Bank think tank, said that the new credit combined with seasonal factors and policy factors hit a record high in the same period.
“The decrease in April ’s new credit month-on-month is in line with the seasonal pattern, but it is still significantly higher than the same period of the previous year. The main reason is that the recent counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy has been strengthened, and it has actively cooperated with the expansion of fiscal policy. Both new corporate loans and residential loans have set a history A new high during the same period, in which corporate loans increased significantly year-on-year, is particularly dazzling. "Yuan Yaxun said.
In general, the rapid growth of loans conveys three signals: First, China ’s monetary policy is transmitted smoothly and the market mechanism is operating well; Second, it can increase the purchasing power of enterprises and residents and support economic development from both supply and demand; Third, China ’s economic resilience The basic trend of tremendous, steady growth and long-term improvement has not changed.
In terms of social finance, the scale of social financing in April increased by 3.09 trillion yuan, 1.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; the stock of social financing scale at the end of April was 265.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 12% year-on-year.
Chen Ji said that the rapid rebound in the growth rate of social integration reflects the policy effect of macro policies supporting the recovery of the real economy after the epidemic. The rebound in the growth rate of social finance represents to some extent the willingness of the credit expansion of the physical sector. Judging from the situation reflected in the current data, the trend of the domestic economic recovery is positive and optimistic, and the effect of the implementation of macro policies is also very significant.
Promote a virtuous circle of economy and finance
It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of M2 and social financing scale is compatible with China's potential economic growth rate, which is higher than the actual economic growth rate affected by the epidemic situation at home and abroad, which helps to pull China's economic growth gradually back to the potential growth rate. Promote the formation of a virtuous circle of economy and finance.
Looking forward to May, Wang Qing said that in the context of continued financial support for the real economy, the increase in credit and social financing is expected to continue to improve, and there is room for further growth in the growth rate of credit, social financing and M2 stocks. In the future, the main axis of the central bank's monetary policy will be a moderate increase in the total amount, and continued precise drip irrigation in the structure.
Wen Bin suggested that in the future, support for the recovery of the real economy could be placed in a more prominent position, further guiding the orderly reduction of LPR, pushing down the real interest rate of loans, and helping to repair and boost effective demand. Monetary policy should be combined with fiscal policy to deal with the relationship between stable growth, job security, structural adjustment, risk prevention, and inflation control. On the basis of boosting economic growth and improving quality and efficiency, the domestic price level is basically stable The RMB exchange rate is basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. (Peng Yang)