In April, the newly increased credit of 1.7 trillion yuan in residential deposits fell by nearly 800 billion yuan, and the M2 growth rate increased to 11.1%

　　Central bank data shows: "revenge deposits" did not appear

　　Text / Guangzhou Daily Daily Media Reporter Lin Xiaoli

　　As steady growth continued to increase, credit continued to grow strongly in April. Data released by the Central Bank on May 11 showed that RMB credits increased by 1.7 trillion yuan in April, an increase of 681.8 billion yuan year-on-year. The newly added social financing scale was 3.09 trillion yuan, 1.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The growth rate of the broad money supply (M2) rose to 11.1%. In sharp contrast, the increase in household consumption loans doubled year-on-year, and deposits fell by nearly 800 billion yuan. So, where did the resident deposit go?

　　New consumer loans doubled year-on-year

　　The reporter found in comparison that the newly increased RMB loans reached 1.7 trillion yuan in April, an increase of 66.7% from the increase of 1.02 trillion yuan in April last year. However, this is a 40% reduction from the 2.85 trillion yuan increase in March this year.

　　Some people in the banking industry pointed out that considering the factors of recovery and rescue of enterprises in March, a slight decline in financing in April is also expected.

　　In terms of different sectors, loans from the household sector increased by 666.9 billion yuan in April. With the release of part of the consumer demand that was suppressed in the previous period and the implementation of various policies to stimulate consumption, consumer consumption rebounded significantly and consumer credit rebounded. In April, the short-term loans of residents increased by 228 billion yuan, 118.7 billion yuan more than the increase of 10.93 billion yuan in the same period last year, doubled.

　　Since April, the medium- and long-term loans of residents, mainly mortgage loans, have increased by 438.9 billion yuan, a slight increase from 416.5 billion yuan in the same period last year.

　　Increased medium- and long-term loans for enterprises

　　Loans to enterprises (affairs) increased by 956.3 billion yuan. It is worth noting that the short-term loans of the corporate sector decreased by 6.2 billion yuan. However, Chen Ji, a senior researcher at the Bank of China's Financial Research Center, pointed out that short-term loans have decreased, but medium- and long-term loans have increased by 554.7 billion yuan. "The obvious change in the structure of corporate loan financing shows that companies have gradually shifted from maintaining liquidity during the epidemic to increasing investment." Chen Ji believes.

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, also pointed out that the growth of medium- and long-term corporate loans is better than that of short-term loans. The transmission mechanism is smooth.

　　Where did the deposit go? Stock market upside deposits "moving"

　　Is there any retaliatory deposit phenomenon in the market that is hotly discussed in deposits? Statistics show that RMB deposits increased by 1.27 trillion yuan in April, an increase of 1.01 trillion yuan year-on-year.

　　However, in terms of structure, household deposits decreased by 799.6 billion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 52.9 billion yuan, and non-banking financial institution deposits increased by 857.1 billion yuan.

　　Chen Ji pointed out that household deposits fell by 799.6 billion yuan, and the increase in deposits with non-banking financial institutions was 857.1 billion yuan, which was a phenomenon of deposit migration in the upward phase of the stock market. Non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 1.17 trillion yuan after a large number of enterprises received credit funds.

　　M2 increased by 11.1% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in three years

　　The increase in new loans continued at a fast pace in April, driving the increase of social financing by 3.09 trillion yuan. Compared with March, it significantly decreased, but compared with the same period, it exceeded market expectations. Among them, the RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 750.6 billion yuan year-on-year; the foreign currency loans issued to the real economy increased by 91 billion yuan, an increase of 124 billion yuan year-on-year; the entrusted loans decreased by 579 billion yuan, A year-on-year decrease of 61.8 billion yuan.

　　M2, which represents broad liquidity, increased by 11.1% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since January 2017.

　　Chen Ji pointed out that the rebound of M2 growth rate on the one hand shows that the adjustment of the previous monetary policy is working, and the effect of monetary policy to support the real economy to recover from the impact of the epidemic as soon as possible begins to appear; on the other hand, financial data often leads the real economic data, M2 The first rebound in growth rate also indicates that after experiencing a rapid bottoming out in the first quarter, the Chinese economy has a solid foundation for continued rebound from the second quarter.

　　Prudent monetary policy is more flexible and moderate

　　Chen Ji believes that next, the domestic monetary policy will generally remain stable and moderately loose, keeping the growth rate of M2 slightly higher than the nominal growth rate of the real economy to ensure the financing needs of economic recovery.

　　On May 10, the central bank released the first quarter monetary policy implementation report, pointing out that in the next stage, the prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate, keeping the growth rate of M2 and social financing scale basically matching the growth rate of nominal GDP and slightly higher Monetary growth supports high-quality economic development.

　　However, Chen Ji believes that due to relatively abundant market liquidity and moderate liquidity pressure in May, the economy ’s endogenous recovery momentum is being released, overseas epidemics gradually entering the platform period and other factors. Big. The possibility of the central bank window guiding commercial banks to lower LPR by 5 basis points to benefit the real economy is not ruled out.