(Economic Observation) Has the consumption of more than 2 million Chinese cars recovered in a single month?

  China News Agency, Beijing, May 12 (Reporter Chen Su) After experiencing the cold winter of the epidemic, the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on the 11th showed that in April 2020, car sales reached 2.07 million units, an increase of 43.5% from the previous month and a year earlier An increase of 4.4% ended the 21 consecutive months of decline in the Chinese auto market since July 2018. Has China's automobile consumption recovered?

  It is worth noting that the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference (abbreviated as: CPCA, CPCA) also announced the car sales data for April on the same day, showing that China's auto retail sales in April were 1.429 million units, an increase of 36.6 compared with March. %, A year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, but it is also the best month this year. Which two sets of data are accurate?

  Wang Qing, deputy director of the Institute of Market Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council of China, said in an interview with the China News Service that the two sets of data have different statistical indicators. The Federation of Trade Unions counts terminal retail sales, while the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers It is the wholesale volume, and the two sets of data are inferior to the circulation inventory. In addition, the China Automobile Association is a more authoritative industry association, and it is usually more inclined to use the data of the China Automobile Association for analysis.

  "The analysis of the automobile industry depends on the trend." Wang Qing said that compared with February and March, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile sales is rapidly recovering.

  Hu Guopeng, chief strategy analyst of Founder Securities, told reporters that the car sales data in April is much better than in March, and it is expected that the positive growth will continue in May and June. "The staged recovery is back."

  Hu Guopeng said that with China ’s resumption of production, people ’s income is expected to improve, and financial liquidity is also showing a positive trend. In addition, the current state is actively promoting automobile consumption, and local governments have also introduced many subsidies, credit concessions, trade-in and other incentives for cars The consumption policy, the real gold and silver policy has well promoted the repair of automobile consumption.

  Since February, due to the need for epidemic prevention and control, many people dare not go out to shop, and the early backlog of purchasing power was released after the domestic epidemic was controlled. In addition, according to Ipsos statistics, compared to pre-epidemic travel, public transportation is the mainstay. The demand for private cars after the epidemic is as high as 66%, and the demand for public transport / subway is 24%, which also pushes up the psychology. People's demand for cars.

  From the perspective of specific vehicle models, the data of the China Automobile Association showed that the year-on-year growth of commercial vehicles in April was significant, with sales of 534,000 units, the highest level in history, with a year-on-year increase of 31.6%. Among them, trucks performed better than passenger cars, with an increase of more than 30%; Car performance was slightly worse, with sales of 1.536 million vehicles in April, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. Among them, the production and sales of sports multi-purpose passenger vehicles (SUVs) showed a slight increase, and the production and sales of other three types of passenger vehicle types (cars, MPVs, CUVs) The rate of decrease has narrowed to varying degrees from the previous month. The year-on-year decline in sales of new energy vehicles in April also narrowed from March, with 72,000 units sold, an increase of 9.7% from the previous month and a decrease of 26.5% from the same period last year.

  Wang Qing said that compared with passenger cars, commercial vehicles are more obviously and directly affected by macroeconomics. With the rebound in infrastructure investment and real estate investment, the sales of dirt trucks and freight cars have increased significantly. In addition, the current environmental protection policy Increasingly tight, trucks with low environmental standards are obliged to be phased out and updated.

  In the "May Day" holiday just passed, according to media reports, 4S stores in many places in China showed a hot scene, and consumers' willingness to buy cars increased significantly. On May 8, Wang Bingnan, deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that sales of durable consumer goods, such as automobiles and home appliances, which had been suppressed in the early stage, rebounded significantly. During the "May Day" period, automobile sales of key monitoring companies in Shanghai, Chongqing and Zhejiang increased by 49.6% year-on-year. , 28.5% and 8.8%.

  What is the future development prospect of China's auto consumption? Can we usher in a V-shaped reversal?

  Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the situation of the Chinese epidemic has improved and a better consumer environment has been formed. Car companies have used this period of time to make up for previous lost orders. But this is not normal, and it is difficult to say that it will maintain such growth. If production and sales continue to maintain a growth trend for a quarter, it can be judged that the auto market is really picking up.

  Looking ahead, Hu Guopeng predicts that auto sales will achieve repairs over the past two or three years and achieve a slight positive growth. However, because China ’s current car penetration rate is already high, the basic situation of market saturation determines that auto sales will not rebound significantly. .

  Wang Qing said that China has entered the peak of replacing cars. Since the second half of last year, there have been signs of recovery in the automobile market. The decline has been narrowing. By December 2019, it has been close to the level of the same period in 2018, but the sudden outbreak will be The rhythm of automobile consumption is upsetting. "Judging the growth trend depends on the potential growth rate. The problem caused by the epidemic is not a long-term problem and cannot reflect the potential growth rate. The current sales growth rate of 3% to 5% is supported by actual demand." (End)