China News Service Client, Beijing, May 12 (Xie Yiguan) Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 12th shows that in April, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 3.3% year-on-year, a 1.0 percentage point decrease from the previous month "3 Times". The analysis believes that the recovery of production and living order has accelerated, and the prices of pork and other foods have fallen, which has contributed to a drop in CPI growth.
CPI rise chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics
CPI year-on-year increase fell sharply
"In April, the situation of prevention and control of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in China was further consolidated, and the order of production and life was speeded up." Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced.
From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 3.3%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, and returned to the "3 era" again after an interval of 5 months.
Specifically, food prices rose by 14.8%, the rate of increase fell by 3.5 percentage points, affecting the CPI rise of about 2.98 percentage points; non-food prices rose by 0.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the increase of CPI by about 0.31 percentage points.
"The progress of resuming production and production is accelerating, and the market supply is obviously improving, which is an important reason for the decline in CPI growth." Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of Renmin University of China, told reporters from China News. The more adequate supply of fruits and other foods has also contributed to the decline in CPI growth.
"At the same time, the resumption of production and production also brought smooth logistics, and the drop in oil prices led to a reduction in production and transportation costs, which further reduced the upward pressure on consumer product prices." Zhao Xijun added.
Dong Lijuan said that in food, the price of pork rose by 96.9%, or 19.5% of the rate of decline; the prices of beef, lamb, chicken, and duck rose by 8.2% -20.5%, all of which fell; the price of eggs changed from 2.1% last month to Decreased by 3.4%; the prices of fresh fruits and vegetables decreased by 10.5% and 3.7% respectively, and the declines expanded by 4.4 and 3.6 percentage points respectively.
"According to estimates, among the 3.3% year-on-year increase in April, the tailing effect of price changes last year was about 3.2 percentage points, and the effect of new price increases was about 0.1 percentage points. From January to April, the average CPI rose by 4.5% over the same period last year. "Dong Lijuan pointed out.
Data map: Supermarket employees are sorting pork. Zhang Yunshe
The year-on-year increase in pork prices has narrowed
In food, pork prices rose 96.9%, affecting the CPI increase of about 2.36 percentage points, which is still the main factor affecting the CPI increase, but the increase fell 19.5 percentage points from the previous month.
"The production capacity of live pigs has accelerated, the supply of pork has continued to increase, and prices have continued to fall by 7.6%, with a decrease of 0.7 percentage points." Dong Lijuan said.
According to the monitoring of the "National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System" by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average pork wholesale price in April was 44.86 yuan / kg, a decrease of 6.1% month-on-month and an increase of 120.8% year-on-year.
On the retail price of pork, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, on April 29, the price of pork (lean meat) in 36 large and medium cities was 29.92 yuan / jin, which fell to below 30 yuan / jin for the first time since mid-October 2019. The previous high was down by 13.6%.
"May-June is affected by the reduction of imported pork, pork prices may remain stable, because there is no consumption support, pork prices rise weakly, but the possibility of decline is unlikely." Wei Baigang, Director of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, April At the press conference on the 28th.
"From the perspective of the supply and demand of pork throughout the year, although the hog production capacity has been actively restored, the pattern of tight pork supply has not fundamentally changed." Yang Zhenhai, director of the Animal and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, believes.
Data map: citizens select fresh vegetables. Sun Ruishe
What is the trend of CPI increase in the future?
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from May 1 to May 5, the daily average wholesale prices of japonica rice, flour and edible oil in the 100 large agricultural and sideline products wholesale markets nationwide fell by 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively from the week before the May Day; The prices of pork and beef decreased by 1.3% and 0.2% respectively, and the prices of lamb increased by 0.3%; the prices of white striped chicken and eggs decreased by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively; the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables decreased by 2.8%.
"The next vegetable supply is sufficient, the meat supply is facing the peak season," Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, told reporters from China News that if the large-scale consumption stimulus policy is not introduced in the near future, the year-on-year increase of CPI in May and June is expected to continue Below 4%.
"From the current situation, as long as there are no major natural disasters, or international oil prices have risen sharply, prices will remain stable and decline for some time to come." Zhao Xijun pointed out.
Yan Pengcheng, director of the National Economic Integration Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, had previously predicted, "With the further restoration of the production and living order of the whole society, the CPI increase is expected to continue to decline, and the whole year will show a trend of" before high and then low. "(End)