China News Service Client, Beijing, May 13 (Reporter Li Jinlei) According to the latest data released by the central bank, household deposits decreased by 799.6 billion yuan in April, and the average daily "gush" from banks exceeded 26.6 billion yuan. The household sector loans increased by 666.9 billion yuan.
Household deposits decreased and loans increased, what happened? Did retaliatory consumption begin?
Data figure: Bank teller is working. Photo by Ai Qinglong
The average daily deposits of households in April surpassed 26.6 billion yuan
The Central Bank issued a financial statistics report for April 2020 on May 11, and RMB deposits increased by 1.27 trillion yuan in April, of which household deposits decreased by 799.6 billion yuan.
What is the concept of household deposits decreased by 799.6 billion yuan? This means that in April, an average of more than 26.6 billion deposits poured out of banks every day.
This is in sharp contrast to the situation in which household deposits increased sharply in the first quarter. The central bank's previous data showed that household deposits increased by 6.47 trillion yuan in the first quarter, with an average of more than 70 billion yuan deposits flowing into banks every day.
Loans to the household sector increased significantly in April
While household deposits decreased, personal loans increased substantially.
Statistics show that household sector loans increased by 666.9 billion yuan in April, of which, short-term loans based on personal consumer loans increased by 228 billion yuan, and medium- and long-term loans based on personal mortgage loans increased by 438.9 billion yuan.
Prior to this, household loans in the first quarter increased by 1.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 602.2 billion yuan from the same period last year, of which short-term loans decreased by 50.9 billion yuan.
Ruan Jianhong, director of the Central Bank ’s Statistics Department and spokesman, said at the first quarter financial data conference that household loans in the first quarter increased by more than 600 billion yuan year-on-year. . As the epidemic prevention and control measures are gradually relaxed or lifted, the demand for personal consumption loans and home purchase loans will also be released.
On May 4, Changsha held the Hunan Automotive Exhibition 2020. Photo by Yang Huafeng
What happened behind it?
Household deposits decreased and loans increased, what happened? Is retaliatory consumption really coming?
—— "Revenge" comes first when buying a car or a house
Regarding the increase in loans, Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told reporters from China News Service that in April, domestic epidemic prevention and control achieved significant results. The resumption of production and production, the resumption of business and the resurgence of the market proceeded in an orderly manner. In terms of real estate and auto sales, it was significantly warmer than in the first quarter.
First look at car consumption.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, automobile production and sales exceeded 2 million units, which basically recovered to the level before the epidemic, and automobile sales ended a 21-month decline. Among them, the production and sales of commercial vehicles exceeded 500,000 units, a record monthly high.
This year's "May Day" holiday, 4S stores in Beijing, Shanghai, Changsha, Zhengzhou and other places have a hot scene. Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Bingnan said at a press conference on May 8 that sales of durable consumer goods, such as automobiles and home appliances, which had been restrained from freezing in the early stage, rebounded significantly. During the "May Day" period, automobile sales of key monitoring companies in Shanghai, Chongqing and Zhejiang increased by 49.6%, 28.5% and 8.8% year-on-year respectively.
Let's look at the property market consumption again.
The turnover of commercial housing in first-tier cities has recovered rapidly. In Shanghai and Shenzhen, some people have queued up to buy luxury homes with a total price of tens of millions of yuan. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in April, the transaction volume of commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by 45% month-on-month. Among them, Shanghai rose 57%; Shenzhen rose 8%; Beijing and Guangzhou saw similar increases, both exceeding 50%.
Statistics from the CR Research Center show that the purchasing power of the first-tier Shanghai and Shenzhen high-end customers is still strong, and the demand for housing purchases suppressed by the epidemic in the second- and third-tier cities has been released. .
Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told reporters from ChinaNews.com that the overall property market recovery continued in April, and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen had a clear recovery performance. Both the number of houses and the number of contracts have returned to the average level before the outbreak. It's not just the enthusiasm of homebuyers entering the market, but the developer's collective land-use fever has also begun to appear. Xiaoyang Chun appeared in the property market.
Dong Ximiao, the chief researcher of Xinwang Bank, told reporters at Chinanews that real estate is also starting to recover, and transactions in first-hand and second-hand housing are more active, which is closely related to the increase in medium- and long-term loans.
Loans to the property market have increased substantially, and regulatory agencies such as the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission have frequently expressed their views. The China Banking Regulatory Commission recently demanded that the illegal inflow of loans into the real estate market should be resolutely corrected. The central bank's Shenzhen Central Sub-branch recently stated that it has required commercial banks to conduct a comprehensive investigation into whether credit funds have flowed into the real estate sector in violation of regulations.
Information figure: The house buyer looks at the sand table in the real estate and consults the sales staff. China News Agency issued photo by Yanyan Jun
——Some deposits flow to investment and financial management
Regarding the decline in deposits, Dong Ximiao analyzed that now China's economy is gradually recovering, consumption is increasing, and personal investment and financial management are also increasing. Deposits are entering more fields such as investment and financial management.
Wen Bin also said that the current capital market trend is relatively stable, the fund issuance scale has increased, and many savings funds have begun to flow to funds, wealth management, and capital markets, which is also an important reason for the decline in savings. This is reflected in the increase in deposits of non-banking financial institutions, that is, securities firms and insurance companies.
Central bank data show that deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased by 857.1 billion yuan in April.
In addition, Wen Bin believes that seasonal factors and the impact of bank deposits' "time to rush" should also be considered. According to historical data, resident deposits declined in the first month after each quarter. It has a lot to do with it. Usually, wealth management products will return to the table in March, June, and September at the end of the quarter, return to bank deposits, and then flow to wealth management after the time point.
Statistics show that household deposits have declined in April in the past few years. In April 2019, household deposits fell by 624.8 billion yuan. In April 2018, household deposits decreased by 1.32 trillion yuan. In April 2017, household deposits decreased by 1.22 trillion yuan. yuan.
Has your deposit decreased? Is there any retaliatory consumption? (Finish)