▲ Itaewon's entertainment district in quarantine
While there are 86 confirmed corona19 coroners related to the Seoul Itaewon Club until noon today (11th), it is still unknown when and where the group infection began.
The quarantine authorities are looking at the 'Yongin 66 patient', who visited the Itaewon club, as an 'indicator (first recognized patient)', and are tracking the path of infection. .
The current quarantine is diagnosed as a person who has been exposed to the Corona19 virus on the 2nd visited the club again on the 5th.
According to the Central Defense Response Headquarters (Bangbang), of the 86 confirmed Itaewon club outbreaks, 63 were directly exposed to the Itaewon club.
The remaining 23 are contacts of confirmed persons such as family members, acquaintances, and colleagues.
There have been no cases of the third wave.
The first patient that Bang Dae-bon perceived was Yong-in, patient A (29), of 66, who visited the Itaewon club on the 2nd.
In the course of additional epidemiological investigations, there may be cases in which an outbreak occurred earlier than Mr. A, but to date, Mr. Bang explained that Mr. A has the earliest onset date.
However, we have started sequencing to find the first infectious agent.
At this time, it is less likely that a specific person has caused this group infection.
This is because the date of visit is different from the club visited by the confirmers.
"I don't think that one or two people have caused this epidemic," said Jung. "I think there was a small number of infections in the community, and it was a little amplified by the club during the holiday season."
In particular, the confirmers are coming out mainly on the 6th visitor of Itaewon, on the 2nd and 5th.
It is possible that the infection spread as club visitors visited the club again during the Golden Week.
"It is possible that someone who was exposed on the 2nd (virus) on the 2nd and spread the infection on the 5th," said Jung. "We believe there was a constant transmission of infection within this group."
The propagation power is expected to be difficult.
The corona19 reproductive index (propagation power) remained around 0.7 before the Itaewon mass infection, but it is expected to rise with this mass infection.
The reproductive index is a concept that estimates the infectivity of an infected person who can transmit the virus to another person.
A value of 1 means that one person infects the virus only to the other person, and the higher the level, the stronger the infectivity.
Voices concerned about the 'second Shincheonji' situation and related general Jung predicted that the ripple power of the Itaewon club is not as high as that of the Shincheonji Daegu Church, but it will be quite high.
He said, "Because the incubation period has not ended, we need to take a closer look and examine it to be able to compare it." I think it will be high. "
The potential for further spread remains.
This is because the majority of confirmed people are young people in their 20s, and there are many mild and asymptomatic cases.
"We estimate that there will be many outbreaks this week, on May 7-13, considering the average incubation period," Chung said. Visitors to Itaewon should be tested promptly.
(Photo = Yonhap News)