Drought and insect pests superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, and global food security has caused concern——
The overall supply risk is not to be underestimated
Economic Daily · China Economic Net reporter Liu Hui
At present, the global food supply is sufficient, and the probability of a global food supply crisis is relatively small. However, if the new coronary pneumonia epidemic continues to spread globally, the risk of a global food crisis cannot be ignored. At present, countries need to strengthen cooperation, improve global food governance capabilities, and reduce the probability of a food security crisis. Experts suggest that while ensuring national food security, China should actively maintain world food security and work with countries around the world to deal with the global hunger problem-
Recently, the spread of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic has continued to impact the global economy. In order to ensure domestic food self-sufficiency, some countries have taken measures to restrict food exports. At the same time, factors such as drought and insect pests have been superimposed. Food security issues have received widespread attention. The "Global Food Crisis Report" issued by the World Food Program recently warned that the global population facing a severe food crisis may increase to 265 million in 2020.
Li Xigui, a senior economist at the National Grain and Oil Information Center, said in an interview with the Economic Daily that the current global food supply is sufficient and the probability of a global food supply crisis is relatively small. However, if the new coronary pneumonia epidemic continues to spread globally, the risk of a global food crisis cannot be ignored. At present, countries need to strengthen cooperation, improve global food governance capabilities, and reduce the probability of a food security crisis.
International food supply is generally adequate
From the perspective of supply and demand, the current global food supply is generally sufficient.
At present, wheat in the main producing country is about to go on the market. The drop in crude oil prices has led to a significant drop in demand for bioenergy. The global food reserve is twice that of the 2007 global food crisis, and the ratio of global food stock consumption is higher than 80% in 2007. The US Department of Agriculture predicts that the global grain raw grain production will be 2.88 billion tons in 2019-2020, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year; the global grain raw grain inventory is 885 million tons, an increase of 1% year-on-year, all close to the highest in history.
From the perspective of rice supply, the US Department of Agriculture estimates that the global rice production in 2019-2020 will be 712 million tons, and the converted rice output will be 496 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. US Department of Agriculture data show that in 2019-2020 India exported 10.5 million tons of rice, Thailand exported 7.5 million tons of rice, and Vietnam exported 6.3 million tons of rice. The three countries together accounted for about 57% of global rice exports. At present, the international rice market is well supplied, and winter and spring rice in some Southeast Asian countries will be available after April. However, the price of rice is still greatly affected by the epidemic. The suspension of rice exports in Vietnam and the stagnation of rice exports in India have caused fluctuations in the Southeast Asian rice market. In mid-April, international rice prices rose by 30% from the beginning of the year.
From the perspective of wheat supply, global wheat exports are 184 million tons per year, of which Russia, the European Union, the United States, Canada, Ukraine, Argentina and Australia account for 87% of the export share. According to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture, global wheat production from 2019 to 2020 is 764 million tons, a record high, an increase of 33.03 million tons from the previous year, an increase of 4.5%. Due to the sufficient global wheat stocks, it is expected that the global wheat ending stocks in 2019-2020 will reach a record high, reaching 293 million tons, an increase of 14.68 million tons year-on-year, or an increase of 5.3%. Since the beginning of this year, there has been little fluctuation in international wheat prices.
From the perspective of corn supply, the global corn export volume is 174 million tons annually, and the four exporting countries of the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine account for 88% of the total. At present, none of the major exporting countries has adopted export restrictions. According to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture, the global corn production for 2019-2020 is 1.113 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7 million tons, and the reduction is mainly from the United States. Global corn ending stocks were 303 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.77 million tons, a decrease of 5.5%, which has declined for three consecutive years. Recently, crude oil prices have fallen sharply, US gasoline demand has dropped by more than half in the short term, and fuel ethanol demand has dropped significantly. Currently, global corn prices have fallen to a low of nearly 11 years.
From the perspective of soybean supply, US soybean stocks are still at a high level, South American soybeans are in the stage of concentrated harvest and listing, global soybean stocks exceed 100 million tons, the second highest level in history, soybean supply is sufficient, and international soybean prices continue to fall.
Strengthened cooperation on food security among countries
"The food crisis is part of the economic crisis and involves complex situations such as income and social stability. The problem of hungry people is a long-term global problem. The poor people's lack of income and inability to buy food are the main hidden dangers. The economic impact of the epidemic will lead to shrinking tourism and reduced remittance , Substantial layoffs, reduced income, reduced purchasing power, and countries and regions such as Africa and the Middle East will face new hunger threats. "Li Xigui said.
In the current epidemic situation, it is an effective measure for countries to strengthen cooperation in food security and improve global food governance capabilities to avoid the risk of a global food crisis.
Since the global food crisis from 2007 to 2008, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations established the Food Monitoring and Early Warning System (AMIS) through the G20 mechanism and played an active role. On March 26, the G20 Minister of Agriculture responded to the statement of the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic, reaffirming the avoidance of any unreasonable restrictions that may cause excessive fluctuations in food prices in the international market, so as not to threaten a large part of the world ’s population, especially low food security Food security and nutritional status of the most vulnerable population in a horizontal environment.
At present, the major grain exporting countries have not taken excessive export restrictions, especially Russia, Vietnam and other countries that have adopted direct export bans during the global food crisis from 2007 to 2008. This time, they treated exports very cautiously. . Vietnam presses the rice export pause button to set a safe buffer period for assessing its domestic supply, but exports have resumed in early April; wheat from Russia and Ukraine is still being exported normally, and export quotas are used. The actual export volume is still higher than the original export target.
From the perspective of grain importing countries, some importing countries are not blindly buying up their reserves. For example, Saudi Arabia ’s strategic reserve of wheat exceeds 1 million tons, and plans to import another 1.2 million tons of wheat from April; the Iraqi Ministry of Trade is preparing to import 1 million tons of wheat and 250,000 tons of rice to increase its strategic reserves; Egypt ’s strategic reserves can meet the demand for 4 months At present, the country's wheat has been harvested, and the government plans to purchase 3.6 million tons of wheat, which will increase the strategic reserve to 6 months of demand.
"Currently, the international food security cooperation mechanism and the control measures of food exporting and importing countries are better than the last food crisis, which is conducive to significantly reducing the probability of the current food security crisis." Li Xigui said.
Prevent the import of international grain and oil prices
China is a major grain producer and a major grain importer. It imports more than 100 million tons of grain annually, mainly soybeans and feed grains. With the deep integration of domestic and foreign grain markets, the impact of the international grain situation on China's grain market is more direct. "Currently, the domestic need to prevent the import transmission effects of large fluctuations in the international grain and oil market prices." Li Xigui said.
At present, China ’s food security is at the best level in history. Its grain output has been stable for more than 650 million tons for five consecutive years. The grain self-sufficiency rate has exceeded 95%. The ration production has absolute safety guarantee capabilities. The stock of rice and wheat is sufficient to meet domestic demand for more than a year. The consumption, inventory consumption ratio is much higher than the 17% to 18% international food security line recognized by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The risk of domestic rice and wheat being affected by the international market is very small, basically "worry of rice noodles", you can not import. There is a slight gap in domestic corn production and demand that year, but policy stocks can meet the domestic market supply.
China's soybeans are highly dependent on the international market and need to guard against possible supply chain risks. From the current situation, the phased blockade measures of some major producing countries such as Brazil and Argentina have brought some interference to soybean trade and shipment, but no substantial impact has been formed, and the impact of reduced logistics efficiency on China's imports is limited. Affected by the supply-demand relationship and the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, international soybean and palm oil prices have fallen more. China's soybean imports are mainly from Brazil, the United States and Argentina. At present, all agricultural export ports in Brazil are operating normally. The domestic logistics in the United States has not been greatly affected, and soybean exports are smooth.
In the long run, under the rigid constraints of resources and environment, China's grain supply is still in a tight balance, and the high dependence of soybeans on foreign relations is difficult to change in the short term.
Li Xigui believes that China needs to be based on the country, look at the world, continue to unswervingly follow the road of food security with Chinese characteristics, fully implement the new development concept, fully implement the national food security strategy and rural revitalization strategy, and fully implement The “grain-to-technology” strategy strengthens the production capacity, storage capacity, and circulation capacity of the grain, promotes the high-quality development of the grain industry, improves the national grain security guarantee capacity, and firmly holds the rice bowl in its own hands. While ensuring national food security, actively maintain world food security, work with countries around the world to tackle the global hunger problem, continue to provide other developing countries with the assistance they can within the framework of South-South cooperation, and jointly promote the healthy development of the global food industry.