In order to overcome the Corona 19, while accelerating the formation of the third additional budgetary plan in half a century, it is forecasted that this year's national debt could reach 45% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

It is predicted that the government will come three years earlier than expected in the national financial management plan for 2019-2023.

The expansion of the financial crisis is inevitable due to the corona crisis, but there are also concerns about the rapid pace of fiscal deterioration.

It is expected that the Party will focus on how to increase the pace of fiscal spending in the future at the National Finance Strategy Meeting hosted by President Moon Jae-in at the end of this month.

According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the government's debt will increase to 819 trillion won, up 13 trillion won from the main budget (805 trillion won), this year, reflecting the 1st and 2nd supplementary figures that were formed at 23.9 trillion won this year.

The national debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 39.8% (this budget), 41.2% (1st estimate, 11.71 trillion won), and 41.4% (2nd estimate), 12.2 trillion won.

Adding to the 3rd estimate, which is estimated to be close to 30 trillion won, and assuming that this year's GDP will grow to 0% and remain at the same level as last year (1,914 trillion won), the national debt to GDP ratio will rise to 44.4%.

The third supplementary plan is expected to include revenue revision (supplementary expected shortfall), special measures to stabilize employment, reinforcement of the financial and welfare stability program worth 135 trillion won, and financial resources to boost the economy.

Of the 10.11 trillion won special measures to stabilize employment, the key is how much additional revenue management and economic stimulus will be added to the financial reinforcement, estimated at a maximum of KRW 4 trillion and KRW 4 trillion.

Overcoming Corona19 vs. Economic Scale It is estimated that the 1st ~ 3rd cardinals must exceed the middle of the 20 trillion won mark in order to overcome the crisis.

In this regard, Congressman Choo Kyung-ho estimated the amount of deficit in national tax revenue this year based on the rate of progress in national tax revenues until the first quarter of this year.

Considering the increase in debt due to the national tax revenue deficit, the issuance of deficit bonds due to the third supplementary plan, and the decrease in the ordinary growth rate due to the impact of Corona 19, his forecast is that the national debt to GDP ratio will rise to 46.5% this year.

If the national debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 45% this year, it will be three years ahead of government expectations.

Previously, the government predicted that the national debt management ratio in 2019-2023 would fall below the national debt ratio to 39.8% this year, 42.1% in 2021, 44.2% in 2022, and 46.4% in 2023, until the end of the government. .

It is the atmosphere that makes 45% of GDP a new psychological margin.

At the final meeting this month, at the National Finance Strategy Meeting, chaired by President Moon Jae-in, the government is expected to discuss in depth how much the next year's budget plan and mid-term fiscal expenditure will take.

After the National Finance Strategy Conference, the government submits the 2020-2024 National Financial Management Plan to the National Assembly, along with the budget for next year in September.