client Beijing, May 9 (Xie Yiguan) Under the influence of African swine fever and other factors, pork prices have risen steadily since the second half of 2019. More than 30 pounds of pork has made netizens sigh: "Pig Eight Commandments" On the value of "Bull Demon King". However, recently, pork prices have finally started to fall.

The picture shows a pork stall in a vegetable market in Beijing. Photo by Xie Yiguan

Pork prices dropped to more than 20 yuan

  "Wholesale pork prices have been falling for 10 consecutive weeks, falling by about 6 yuan per kilogram." Wei Baigang, director of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, quickly entered the hot search at a press conference on April 28.

  Netizens commented, "Finally, pork can be eaten!" "Can pork be bought at will?"

  Let's first look at the wholesale data. "On May 5, the wholesale price of pork was 42.86 yuan per kilogram, down 8.2% from the end of March." Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng introduced at the press conference on the 7th.

  According to the monitoring of the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork was 43.92 yuan per kilogram from April 24 to April 30, a decrease of 5.24 compared with the weekly average wholesale price of 49.16 yuan in early February yuan.

  In fact, since late February, pork wholesale prices have continued to fall. Statistics show that the average wholesale price of pork in March (the average wholesale price of white stripe meat, the same below) was 47.79 yuan / kg, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous month, and an increase of 145.3% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of pork was 44.86 yuan / kg in April, a decrease of 6.1% %, A year-on-year increase of 120.8%.

  Although the wholesale price has fallen, people are most concerned about whether the retail end has also fallen.

  Reporters visited many supermarkets and vegetable markets in Beijing and found that pork prices are currently concentrated between 20 and 40 yuan, which has recently declined.

  "Currently Qianjian meat is 26.5 yuan a catty and pork belly is 35.8 yuan a catty." A butcher in a vegetable market in Fengtai District in Beijing told reporters, "Qianjian meat sold more than 30 pieces a while ago, and pork belly was also cheaper by two. Piece."

  In a vegetable market in Xicheng District, Beijing, a meat seller told reporters, "The tenderloin price is 30 yuan per catty, and the pork belly is 29 yuan per catty. The tenderloin is almost 5 yuan cheaper in the past month."

  It is not just Beijing, the retail prices of pork in many places across the country have begun to fall.

  In Yantai, Shandong, a boss who opened a butcher ’s shop told reporters, "Forefoot meat is now 23.3 yuan a catty. It was sold for 25 and 26 yuan a month ago. Last winter, when it was the highest, it sold more than 33 pieces. It is now cheaper than that time Ten dollars. "

  In Zhumadian, Henan, “Pork belly meat is about 23 yuan, and pure lean meat is about 26 yuan. It has dropped a little recently and is two or three yuan cheaper than during the Spring Festival.” Some residents said.

  According to the National Development and Reform Commission, on April 29, the price of pork (lean meat) in 36 large and medium cities was 29.92 yuan / jin, which fell below 30 yuan / jin for the first time since mid-October 2019, compared with the previous high Down 13.6%.

Data figure: Farmers care for young piglets. Photo by Han Zhangyun

Demand is weak, falling more and more killing

  The reason why the price of pork has fallen is mainly because the value of "Second Brother" has shrunk.

  In 2018, an African swine fever caused some pigs in domestic pig farms to be killed and the production capacity dropped significantly. In short supply, pork prices have hit record highs since the second half of 2019. To this end, the country has strengthened the supply and price stability, and launched the implementation of a subsidy project for the construction of large-scale pig farms. The increase in pig prices has also stimulated the enthusiasm of pig farmers, and local pig farms have actively expanded production capacity.

  Wei Hongyang, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that from the perspective of the first quarter, the production of hogs continued to improve, and the number of capable sows continued to grow in March, an increase of 2.8%, the sixth consecutive month of growth; newborn piglets continued Maintained an increase of 7.3% in March, the second consecutive month of growth; the inventory of live pigs increased by 3.6% month-on-month, also the second consecutive month of growth.

  Production capacity continued to recover and pork demand was weak during the epidemic. Some meat sellers told reporters that the number of people buying meat has dropped significantly in recent months. This has also reduced the number of live pigs on the market.

  "Consumption is sluggish from February to March. The original one-month sales volume should be divided into two-month sales. The stock of farms has increased significantly. The single-weight white pigs sold on the market are generally large. After the temperature gradually increases, the fat type White bars will face resistance in the market and need to be sold as soon as possible. "Liu Tong, head of Xinfadi's market statistics department, pointed out.

  In addition, "most of the farmers were in a wait-and-see state. Later, when they saw that prices continued to fall, they began to choose panic selling." Feng Yonghui, an analyst of the pig warning network, told reporters that "chasing up and killing", the more the decline, the more killing, forming a vicious Circulation, before raising to about 300 pounds before selling, now some pig farmers have more than 200 pounds of pigs out.

  The situation of short supply has changed. According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, during the 7th week of this year (February 10-February 16), the average purchase price of live pigs in designated slaughtering enterprises above designated size was 38.86 yuan / kg, and the average ex-factory price of white strip meat was 50.11 yuan / kg. By the 16th week of this year (April 13-19), the average purchase price of live pigs for designated slaughtering enterprises above designated size was 33.95 yuan / kg, and the average ex-factory price of white strip meat was 43.67 yuan / kg, which has fallen for 9 consecutive weeks.

  In addition, there are central reserves of pork and supplies of imported pork on the market. As of the end of April, a total of thirteen batches of central frozen pork reserves were put in after the Spring Festival. According to customs data, the import of pork in the first quarter was 951,000 tons, an increase of 1.7 times.

Data map: Supermarket employees are sorting pork. Zhang Yunshe

Can the price of pigs return to the 10 yuan era?

  "In the past, 13 pounds of pork were placed in front of me. I didn't cherish it, but now I am happy for more than 20 pieces of pork ..."

  Although prices are now falling, netizens still miss a dozen yuan of pork. With the restoration of production capacity, can pork return to its previous price soon?

  "Although the production capacity of hogs has been restored month by month since October last year, there is a process from production capacity to actual slaughter. It will take some time to truly reach the standard of fattening pigs." Liu Tong said, however, the current demand is relatively low, It is extremely beneficial for the recovery of wool pig production capacity.

  For recent pork prices, Zhuo Chuang Information's pig analyst Wang Yanan believes that the overall demand for pork during the May Day period is limited. The supply of standard pigs in the pig market at the beginning of the month is still small, but the previous backlog of fat pigs still exists. Adjustment space is limited.

  "The slow digestion rate of heavy pigs may continue through May, combined with the frequent supply of reserve meat and the policy of the second half of the year, the price of the pig market will rebound less, and there is still room for prices to fall. It may fall to around RMB 30.50 / kg at the end of the month. "Wang Yanan said.

  "May-June is affected by the reduction of imported pork, pork prices may remain stable, because there is no consumption support, pork prices rose weakly, but the possibility of decline is unlikely." Wei Baigang pointed out.

  According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of 160,000 pig farms with more than 500 pigs sold annually in the country, the number of newborn piglets increased for the first time in February. The growth rates in February and March were 3.4% and 7.3% respectively. Newborn piglets can be slaughtered within 6 months, which indicates that the market volume of commercial pigs will gradually increase from July.

  "But from the perspective of the supply and demand of pork throughout the year, although the hog production capacity has been actively restored, the pattern of tight pork supply has not fundamentally changed." Yang Zhenhai, director of the Animal and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, believes that the supply and demand of pork in the second quarter is still facing a low production base. The pressure of superposition of three factors, such as increasing import uncertainty and rising consumption, may be the most difficult period of this round of pig cycle. After July, the market supply will gradually improve, but due to more festivals in the second half of the year, the consumption pull is also stronger, and the peak pork price may appear around September.

  Liu Yonghao, chairman of New Hope Group, estimates that pork prices will remain high within this year. It may still be a bit high in the first half of next year, and it is possible to gradually reach a normal level in the second half of the year.

  Have you bought pork recently? Is it cheap? (Finish)