Difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises under the epidemic

  China News Weekly Reporter / He Bin

  Published in 2020.5.11 total issue 946 "China News Weekly"

  The Chinese economy has reopened with the resumption of business and production, but recovery is still a long process. At the end of February, a joint research group composed of the Internet Finance Laboratory of Wudaokou Finance School of Tsinghua University, the Industrial Finance Research Center of Wudaokou Finance School of Tsinghua University, the Smart Finance Research Center of Wudaokou Finance School of Tsinghua University, and Beijing Daokou Jinke Technology Co. Analyze the recovery of small, medium and micro enterprises.

  "At that time, the national epidemic prevention and control was still very strict. Many local enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, had very serious operating conditions, so we wanted to study the true situation of small and medium-sized enterprises affected by the epidemic." Beijing, the team leader Yuan Wei, CEO of Dakou Jinke Technology Co., Ltd. revealed to China News Weekly that the starting point of the research is to analyze quantitatively how small and medium-sized enterprises have been affected by the epidemic and how they have recovered. reference.

  The data comes from the Xinghe Enterprise Big Data platform built by Dakou Jinke in the past few years. In the past few years, Dakou Jinke has been doing data accumulation, and has done a lot of research around all aspects of enterprise data to form a pair. The cognitive map of the enterprise.

SMEs cut income by nearly 70%

  Using the core indicator of business revenue, the research team selected companies with a revenue of less than 100 million yuan in 2019 as a research sample, covering 31 provinces and municipalities across the country except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and covering 19 industry classifications of the National Bureau of Statistics.

  According to the definition, enterprises with an annual operating income of less than 50 million yuan are small, medium and micro enterprises, accounting for 97.2% of the total number of samples, and the total amount is in the order of one million. After desensitization, including tax, invoice, payment, industry and commerce, etc. Analyze business operation data to quantify the economic recovery of small, medium, and micro economies. At the same time, using the indicator of "business amount" to construct the "Taokou Small, Medium, and Micro-Economic Recovery Index", the monthly total of small and medium-sized enterprises' operating activities was compared with the same period last year.

  "Why should we focus on SMEs? Because the research on the data level of SMEs is relatively lacking, and under the macro exogenous impact of the epidemic, SMEs have been the most affected." Tsinghua University Wudaokou Finance Li Pengfei, a postdoctoral researcher at the college, said.

  The results of the regression model show that as of March 31, 2020, the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on the overall level will reduce the income of small and medium-sized enterprises by 69.5%. Although there were subjective expectations when the project was launched, Yuan Wei was surprised when he saw the results. "The data value at the beginning of February was particularly low, and the impact greatly exceeded our expectations. At that time, some media also released the resumption index, but the data It shows that the resumption index is much lower than the resumption index. "

  With the study of the dynamic recovery process, the research team found that compared with the degree of recovery in February, the growth rate in March was particularly fast, an increase of 141.4%, and the economic recovery index of the level of small, medium and micro-levels in March rose to 41.1%. According to the analysis of the research team, after the epidemic situation was controlled, various regions gradually realized the results of the resumption of production and various policies. "So now we are looking forward to the results of April to see whether it is stronger than the elastic recovery in February and March." Yuan Wei said.

  The greater significance lies in the fact that due to the introduction of multiple enterprise support policies from the central to the localities, the order of support in different regions is different, and the degree of support is also different. "So the level of small, medium and micro-economic recovery index can accurately measure each region and each time According to the recovery situation of enterprises in different industries, the current implementation of some policies has been evaluated to provide suggestions and reference for relevant departments to release policies.

  The results show that, from a regional perspective, the impact of the epidemic has the most severe impact on the income of small, medium and micro enterprises in Hubei and Hunan. From the perspective of industry, the income of small and medium-sized enterprises in the accommodation and catering industry, construction industry, education industry, real estate industry, manufacturing industry, leasing and business service industry has been negatively affected by the epidemic.

  Li Pengfei analyzed that there are two main types of industries that are more affected by the epidemic. One type is an industry enterprise that is extremely dependent on offline business, such as catering, education, accommodation, and tourism. The other type is a complex supply chain, especially Export-oriented enterprises involved in foreign trade. In addition, the industrial structure will also affect the regional economic recovery. After some links in the industrial chain are broken, the entire chain may be affected. For example, in areas with more developed manufacturing in the Yangtze River Delta, economic recovery may be slower than in the western region.

Beware of "failure"

  "Although the resumption of production and production speed up, but the risk of small and medium-sized enterprises'" failure "is still a high probability." In an article in early April, Chen Long, deputy director of the Research Center for Finance and National Governance of the Chinese Academy of Financial Sciences, issued such a warning .

  Chen Long believes that in recent years, many Chinese SMEs have struggled on the verge of bankruptcy. Under the impact of this epidemic on both ends of supply and demand, its difficulties have increased and it faces the risk of failure. "Although the speed of full-scale resumption of production and resumption of production across China is relatively fast, the factors that threaten the failure of SMEs still exist."

  Chen Long's analysis of China News Weekly, on the one hand, labor and other costs continue to accumulate; on the other hand, the reduction in demand leads to poor operation, which is manifested by fewer customers, no orders, and difficulty in making profits, making it difficult for operating income to make up for it. Cost, "Obviously this situation cannot last for a long time. If the business situation cannot be improved, some of the enterprises will inevitably go bankrupt."

  Some scholars have pointed out that after the resumption of production and production, the pressure faced by Chinese companies has shifted from the supply side to the demand side. In this regard, Chen Long believes that insufficient demand is indeed an important factor that leads to the survival pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises after resuming production. Without demand, the reduction of customers and orders means that the business activities of the enterprise are reduced, and the business and operating income will inevitably decrease, thereby threatening the survival of the enterprise. However, the cost problem on the supply side cannot be ignored. The superposition of labor, rent and other costs will also lead to the closure of enterprises. These two aspects are closely linked and cannot be separated.

  In the data of Daokou Jinke, an important indicator is the number of active companies. By observing whether the number of active companies in each industry and region has changed drastically compared with last year, we can understand how many companies are resuming operations, otherwise, they have not resumed operations. Business. By comparing the number of active companies with operating income data, it was found that the two showed consistent results in terms of scale. According to Yuan Wei, the research group is currently analyzing failed companies based on business data, because from the point of view of industry and commerce information, many companies have already closed down even if they have not written off. Their business data is inactive, but they have not yet obtained complete and accurate information. The data.

  "At present, the most vigilant is the failure of two types of SMEs, one is the foreign trade manufacturing SMEs, and the other is the service industry SMEs." Chen Long said that affected by the overseas epidemic, the next one or two quarters China's external demand may decline sharply year-on-year. Once the industrial chain of small and medium-sized enterprises in the foreign trade manufacturing industry breaks, it will be difficult to recover in the short term. If there is a wave of foreign trade failure, it may lead to the unemployment of 15 to 18 million people. Even if the SMEs in the service industry resume work, the actual operational difficulties will continue to increase due to factors such as low consumption, industrial chain transmission, increased costs, and capital occupation.

  "Once the" failure "of the above two situations occurs, it will have a significant negative impact on China's economy, employment, social stability, etc., and endanger the domestic manufacturing industry chain and its status." Chen Long said.

  On the day when the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first quarter of this year, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to propose the "six guarantees" for the first time, namely, ensuring employment of residents, basic livelihood, market players, food and energy security, and industrial supply chain. Stable and keep grassroots level running.

  "The key to the 'six guarantees' is to protect small, medium and micro enterprises!" Chen Yuyu, a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management and director of the Institute of Economic Policy at Peking University, collectively refers to small and medium-sized market entities that are registered as private enterprises and individual business households Micro enterprise. 2018 data shows that the number of units registered as private enterprises is 31.43 million, the number of employees is 220 million, the individual industrial and commercial households are 73 million, and the number of employees is 160 million.

  The data shows that China's current labor force is about 800 million, of which about 770 million are employed, including 201 million in agricultural employment and 570 million in non-agricultural employment. The employment provided by private enterprises and self-employed persons reached 380 million, accounting for 66.7% of the total non-agricultural employment.

  "Small and micro enterprises create jobs and provide income for employees. According to their proportion, they are the basic economic plate. The basic plate is shaken, and other policies are more effective." Farmers and business owners, they are also the main force of mass consumption. "So no matter what stimulus policies China introduces, it will not allow this to add up to the absence of more than 100 million small, medium and micro enterprises."

  Moreover, in Chen Yuyu's view, if relevant policies can be introduced to help these small and medium-sized enterprises to overcome the difficulties, at least the "four guarantees" will be solved in the "six guarantees", with less effort.

Enterprise-related policies: bailout or support

  In order to help small and medium-sized enterprises to alleviate difficulties and overcome difficulties, the central government has issued many policies, including finance, taxation, finance, social security, foreign trade, and employment. At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on April 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology SMEs Qin Zhihui, deputy director of the bureau, summarized these policies as "decreasing, increasing, decreasing, slowing down and serving".

  Among them, "reduction" means tax reduction. For small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, a VAT reduction and exemption policy has been introduced, and at the same time, the export tax rebate rate of some products has been raised, as well as periodic reductions and exemptions of corporate social security fees and the exemption of toll road tolls. "Increase" is mainly to increase credit. To solve the problem of capital flow and liquidity shortage of enterprises, through three times of RRR cuts, re-loan rediscounts, financial institutions were provided with 3.55 trillion yuan of low-cost funds for issuing low-interest loans to enterprises.

  "Decrease" is mainly to reduce costs. There are specific regulations for reducing labor costs, rent costs, logistics costs, capital costs, and production and operating costs for electricity, gas, and water. "Slow" is mainly to delay the period. As of the end of March, the principal and interest of 880 billion yuan of corporate loans have been extended. In addition, it also extended the years of loss-carrying forwarding of enterprises such as transportation and catering and accommodation, and postponed the payment of housing provident funds. "Service" is mainly to optimize services.

  In February of this year, the central and local governments issued more corporate-related policies. Li Pengfei conducted a questionnaire survey that month, and about 75% of the companies believed that the various preferential policies did not alleviate the cash flow pressure of the companies. In his view, the reason for this result in February may be because the policy has just been introduced, and there is still information friction between the companies and the policies. The policies for small and medium-sized enterprises are scattered in various regions, and the landing rules are different in different regions. Companies do not know themselves. Whether the threshold is reached or not, the policy effect will naturally be biased.

  In addition, some policies have not benefited all small and medium-sized enterprises, especially bank loans, which have natural commercial attributes. Naturally, they will find some enterprises with relatively low risks and high repayment rates, which are rarely involved. To micro-enterprises, this is the result of a market choice.

  Chen Yuyu believes that the main reason why it is difficult for enterprise-related policies to benefit SMEs is that the definition of the enterprise is unclear and it is difficult to implement precise policies. Moreover, most private enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households are not large taxpayers and are often ignored by local governments.

  "But they are the fundamentals of China's economy. They are related to the vitality and social stability of China's economy. They may be inconspicuous in peacetime, and will be highlighted when the economy is difficult." Hedging the losses and risks from the epidemic. In this policy package, there must also be a policy arrangement specifically aimed at more than 30 million private enterprises and more than 70 million individual industrial and commercial households.

  First of all, small, medium and micro enterprises should be given timely and bold encouragement in all aspects of policies, regulations, and publicity measures to boost their confidence. Secondly, for these companies, short-term relief policies should be implemented, directly providing financial support, such as subsidizing a quarter of wages, tax reduction and exemption policy can be considered for 1 to 2 years. "As long as the enterprise survives this difficulty, employees can have a stable income, they have the ability to consume, and the financial multiplier effect can be exerted." Again, some projects of the new infrastructure can also be divided into small and medium-sized enterprises. Help them get out of trouble. In addition, monetary policy and special national debt can also be tilted toward small, medium and micro enterprises.

  "The most important thing is to take advantage of this opportunity to make up for the problem of excessive macroeconomic regulation and control system. Small and micro enterprises are the big starters to start the entire Chinese economy from the perspective of production, consumption and inclusiveness." In the past, the survival crisis of most enterprises was not caused by poor management, but by the external environment. The financial support is not only an encouragement of confidence, but also a foundation for future financial stability. "Otherwise, today, they are stingy to bail out these small, medium and micro enterprises. Once a business fails, the government needs to pay a lot of unemployment benefits, and it also affects social stability, and it is not worth the loss."

  "The failure of some small and medium-sized enterprises is inevitable." Chen Long believes that the government should now prevent the large-scale closure of small and medium-sized enterprises, which in turn will have a greater impact on employment, people's livelihood and manufacturing development. To this end, it is necessary to "save a part" and "pull a part".

  "Save a part" means that enterprises can survive through the reduction of taxes and rents and the implementation of emergency rescue of credit funds. This needs to be classified and implemented according to the different dilemmas faced by specific industries and different types of enterprises, and accurate assistance. "Pulling a part" is to improve the operating environment of SMEs by expanding total demand, and to "pull out" some SMEs by expanding the total demand.

  Chen Long believes that in order to improve the effectiveness of policies, first of all, the speed of policy introduction and implementation should be fast. Fast rescue can avoid higher post-processing and response costs. The earlier the action, the lower the cost. Secondly, the policy needs to achieve a certain intensity. The scale of aid funds and the strength of other aid policies must match the scale of the Chinese economy and the overall size of SMEs. If the amount is too small, like a dragonfly, the effect will inevitably be poor.

  Taking the credit policy as an example, Chen Long needs to solve the problems of having money and loans and banks willing to lend in order to achieve a "strong" effect. It is difficult to motivate financial institutions to lend their loans only by providing tax and other support to financial institutions. Even if it is an assessment or administrative instruction, it is difficult to resolve this contradiction. To this end, it is necessary to fiscally share the bad debt pressure and financial risks in the rescue. The pressure of bad debts after the bailout cannot be thrown to the financial sector, otherwise, solving one problem will cause another serious problem.

  In addition, to ensure the effectiveness of the policy, it is also necessary to find a good policy focus and aid targets, which should be mainly targeted at small and medium-sized enterprises that have good development prospects and potential but are temporarily in trouble. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a corresponding guarantee mechanism to prevent "disordered money" and fraudulent compensation.

  However, Chen Long also believes that in addition to government assistance, small and medium-sized enterprises must also take various "self-help" measures to find their own living space.

  "China News Weekly" No.16, 2020

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