(Economic Observation) Why did Chinese exports rebound sharply in April?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, May 7 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) China's export data unexpectedly "popped up" in April under the epidemic. The 8.2% year-on-year increase not only reversed the decline of March-3.5%, but also much higher than the same period last year. 3.1% growth rate. Experts here said that China's export rebounded sharply in April mainly because the pre-hand orders entered the peak of execution. The impact of the cancellation of European and American orders on China's exports may gradually appear in the next few months.

　　According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on the 7th, China ’s total export value in April was 1.41 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), an increase of 8.2% year-on-year; in dollar terms, it increased by 3.5% year-on-year. Due to a large increase in exports and a decline in imports, China ’s trade surplus in April was 318.15 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6 times.

　　In an interview with China News Agency, Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that the significant rebound in exports in April was mainly due to the fact that a large number of foreign trade companies have resumed work and resumed production. Orders in hand are gradually executed.

　　The surge in the export of anti-epidemic materials also boosted exports to a certain extent. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, the average daily export volume of China ’s national defense epidemic materials has increased from about 1 billion yuan in the beginning to over 3 billion yuan at the end of the month since April, and has continued to grow more than three times within a month.

　　The base effect is also one of the reasons why export growth in April exceeded expectations. In April last year, China's total export value increased by only 3.1%, which was at a low level throughout the year.

　　However, analysts believe that the sharp increase in exports in April does not mean that China ’s exports have been “very bad.” The impact of severe orders cancellation in Europe and the United States due to the epidemic situation will gradually appear in the coming months.

　　In Bai Ming's view, China's exports may bottom out in May or June, and a real turnaround may be waiting until the second half of the year.

　　Wang Jun, a member of the Academic Committee of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that as an important trading partner of China, Europe and the United States had previously adopted strict control measures such as "closing the city" due to the sudden deterioration of the epidemic situation, and stopped a large number of economic activities, which made it very difficult for Chinese companies to win new orders. . Due to the time lag, the current export data does not fully reflect the real situation of foreign trade enterprises.

　　A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, Gao Feng, also revealed a few days ago that, based on a thorough investigation of key localities, key industries, and key enterprises, China ’s foreign trade companies are still facing multiple difficulties, including the cancellation or extension of orders in hand, the risk of refusal to accept payment, the new risk Decreased orders, affected supply chain, blocked international logistics, increased capital pressure, etc.

　　To help foreign trade companies get through the difficulties, China has introduced a series of measures. In addition to stepping up the development of cross-border e-commerce, supporting enterprises to cooperate with internationally renowned e-commerce platforms, and increasing credit support, China is also actively promoting "export to domestic sales" to encourage enterprises to turn to the domestic market.

　　At present, many cities such as Changsha and Zhengzhou have opened cross-border e-commerce lines with Europe and the United States to speed up the creation of a stable and smooth international logistics channel. In Dongguan, the local plan is to comprehensively deepen cooperation with e-commerce platforms such as Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, etc. to encourage more export-oriented enterprises to "touch the net", and is also preparing to establish a live broadcast industrial base and a local live broadcast e-commerce platform to promote manufacturing companies to live Sales.

　　Bai Ming said that in the face of sluggish external demand, the development of cross-border e-commerce and "export to domestic sales" will provide a "safe haven" for foreign trade companies hit by the epidemic, giving them more room to move around.

　　Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that as China resumes domestic production and production, the recovery of domestic supply and demand will help the recovery of the international supply chain. At present, China's foreign trade development continues to increase its resilience and competitiveness. Imports and exports with countries and regions along the “Belt and Road” such as ASEAN will continue to lead the growth of foreign trade. (Finish)