Iraq: "It is very unlikely that this new government will make a difference"

Text by: Murielle Paradon Follow

After five months of vacancy in power, Iraq adopted a new government early Thursday, May 7. In front of masked and gloved deputies due to the coronavirus, Moustafa al-Kazimi, 53, a former intelligence chief who entered both Washington and Tehran, was sworn in with fifteen of his ministers. Myriam Benraad, political scientist specializing in the Middle East and author of Iraq beyond all wars (Ed. Cavalier bleu), answers RFI's questions.

Publicity

RFI: How did Moustafa al-Kazimi, who was appointed Prime Minister a month ago, succeed in forming this new government, when several of his predecessors failed ?

Myriam Benraad  : He is an intelligence person and in the current context, it has worked in his favor. He is a respected person but does not mark a major political victory there. The composition of his cabinet was largely imposed on him, according to criteria set up in 2003, criteria for the distribution of positions according to faith. Some key positions have still not been allocated, which also proves that we have not fully recovered from the crisis. Above all, it is very unlikely that this government, in the current context aggravated by the health crisis, could make a difference unfortunately.

What will be the government's priorities ?

First the management of the health crisis [from Covid-19, editor's note], which has not caused many deaths in Iraq but which the country is trying to control as best as it can and very randomly because 'As much as we can talk about politics in Baghdad, as much elsewhere things are much more volatile.

Then, it will be for this government to recover economically from this crisis because Iraq is a country that overwhelmingly depends on oil rent. And with the destabilization of the markets, the drop in supply, this will impact the country's finances. Iraq will no doubt go through a very serious recession, especially since the economic and financial state was not radiant before the crisis.

Finally, the last priority is to curb the violence on the ground with the resumption of jihadist attacks and especially of the Shiite militias which have become largely out of control. So it is not a government formed under favorable circumstances.

Will this government be able to respond to the demands of the street? Recall that the political crisis was triggered by demonstrations by young people denouncing corruption and the disastrous socio-economic situation in Iraq.

For the moment, the demonstrations have been passed over in silence due to this health crisis and the partial confinement, so there has been an extinction of the popular protest which had agitated the country last fall, in a relatively violent manner. It does not mean that social anger has disappeared, anger is still present. And the worsening of the socio-economic situation at the end of this crisis will undoubtedly result in a revival of these demonstrations, even if it is impossible to say when.

For the moment, the Iraqi authorities have adopted a double policy: repressive with a total denial of this social demand and apathy, few reforms have been implemented, reconstruction is absent. The issue of corruption has not been resolved either, it has been plaguing Iraq for many years. Unfortunately, we are at a standstill with very little hope of a recovery in the country in the months or years to come.

What relations can the new government of Mustafa al-Kazimi maintain with both the United States and Iran ?

Each Prime Minister, since the beginning of the Iraqi transition, has been systematically approved, in an occult or discretionary manner, by the two countries. The Americans are less engaged than before but keep a right of scrutiny over the political process in Iraq. Even more, Iran has been exercising much heavier and more direct interference in Iraqi politics for years. From this point of view, this government will be largely aligned with Iranian positions and it will try, like Abadi [Haider al-Abadi, former Iraqi Prime Minister, note], to maintain a not too tense relationship with the Americans, even if things have deteriorated with the confrontation between Washington and Tehran.

Iraq is in the middle, which serves the recovery of the country, the return to its sovereignty and the reconstruction of a viable state, of institutions, the restarting of the economy and the reforms that are taking place. impose. It is also these foreign interference, let's be clear, that has kept Iraq from recovering for decades.

Newsletter With the Daily Newsletter, find the headlines directly in your mailbox

Follow all international news by downloading the RFI application

• Iraq

On the same subject

Iraq: President Saleh names intelligence chief as prime minister

Iraq, a paralyzed country amidst growing crises

Iraq: President Saleh instructs Adnane Zorfi to try to form a government