Extension of declaration What is the impact on the Japanese economy? Ask economists May 4 at 20:01
With regard to the extension of the emergency declaration, private economists expect that economic loss will increase, especially for personal consumption.
Nomura Research Institute's Toei Kiuchi Executive Economist estimates that personal spending will decrease by 27.8 trillion yen if going out or refraining from sales continues for about two months. Even if the declaration is lifted, active consumption will be suspended for a while to prevent the spread of infection, and for this reason, 47 trillion yen will be lost by private consumption alone from April to September, and GDP in 2020 will be 8.5. It is calculated that it can be pushed down.
Meanwhile, Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Economic Research Institute, made a trial calculation including the stagnation of investment by various companies in addition to personal consumption. As a result, the GDP up to the 31st of this month is expected to reduce the total GDP up to that point by 45 trillion yen, or 8.4%, resulting in a large economic loss.
Chief economist Kumano said, "Self-government will be partly alleviated in areas other than specified alert prefectures, but these regions account for only a small 35% of the total GDP. The self-restraint of migration will continue and business activity will not improve sufficiently, so the economic impact will still be significant. "
In addition, he said, "The future focus will be on the extent to which leave requests by local governments will continue and the extent to which additional economic measures such as leave compensation and rent assistance will be implemented. We will need additional economic measures, but it will be important to discuss the issues of fiscal discipline in a well-balanced manner. "