On the evening of 29th Beijing time, the US Department of Commerce announced the GDP for the first quarter of 2020.
The U.S. GDP for the first quarter was the worst in a decade.
The data shows that the U.S. real GDP fell by 4.8% in the first quarter, far below the previous value of 2.1%. This is the largest quarterly decline since 2009.
Negative consumption has greatly increased unemployment
Just before the official data of -4.8% was released, the poor performance of the US economy in the first quarter had already been heralded.
A series of figures are historical lows.
In terms of employment, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States decreased by 701,000 in March, the worst performance in 10 years. The number of unemployed in five weeks has broken 26.5 million, erasing all new jobs since the Great Recession.
In terms of consumption, the monthly retail sales rate in the United States recorded the worst performance in March and the largest historical decline since 1992.
From the perspective of manufacturing: The ISM manufacturing PMI index fell to its lowest point since March 2009.
According to the survey report released by the National Business and Economic Association of the United States on April 27, consumers have begun to break away from economic activities due to the spread of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, causing consumers to break away from economic activities. Personal consumption expenditures in the first quarter showed a negative value.
At the same time, business investment expenditures are weak, and some companies are more cautious. They began to cut expenditures before the formal implementation of the blockade measures, so most economists expect the US economy to contract.
Looking back on the performance of US GDP since the financial crisis, except this time, only two quarterly GDP fell into the negative range in this decade.
The final value of US GDP recorded -2.9% in the first quarter of 2014, mainly due to a decline in net exports and healthcare consumption.
The final value of GDP in the first quarter of 2015 recorded -0.7%, partly dragged down by the decline in oil prices.
The second quarter is even worse?
Kenneth Rogoff, professor of public policy and economics at Harvard University and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, pointed out that the more optimistic forecast for the United States in the second quarter is that GDP will drop by 20%, but this is an underestimation of the epidemic ’s impact on the economy. Impact strength.
At the same time, the investment community generally believes that work can be resumed by the end of May and can be fully restored to normal by the end of the year, even underestimating the tail risks.
Rogoff pointed out that in the current crisis situation, the debt is expected to be high, and the US debt level may increase by 5 to 10 trillion US dollars. Although governments have introduced some stimulus measures, public and private sector defaults may continue to increase.
Hashit, chairman of the White House Economic Advisory Committee, predicts that the US unemployment rate will be 16% -20% by June, and that the US GDP in the second quarter will be "very negative."
The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that real GDP contracted by 12% year-on-year in the second quarter and 39.6% sequentially. The average US unemployment rate in the second quarter was close to 14%.
Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, believes that with the further fermentation of the epidemic in the United States, a new round of risk shock chain of "epidemic-economic-finance" is taking shape. With this mismatch, the current market is overly immersed in four optimistic expectations.
First, the financial impact of the epidemic is one-off, not multi-stage.
Second, the market risk has been cleared, rather than insufficient risk pricing.
Third, it partially underestimates the diversity of the new round of risk shocks.
Fourth, it partially overestimates the true effectiveness of America ’s unconventional policies.
"The economic shocks are coming soon." Cheng Shi specifically pointed out that the economic shocks that came sooner than the inflection point of the epidemic that was not coming late. On the one hand, as the core engine of the US economy, domestic consumption has shown signs of recession.
According to its previous research, consumption data is a “canary” that warns of the relative accuracy of previous US economic recessions.
Affected by the epidemic, the decline in US retail sales in March was the largest since the record in 1992, and the consumer confidence index in early April also fell the largest since the record in 1952. Adding to the number of newly-employed jobless claims, the consumption engine is expected to continue to stall, further exacerbating the depth of the US economic recession.
On the other hand, the impact of the epidemic on the US economy is expected to significantly exceed the international financial crisis of 2008-2009. According to the latest IMF forecast, the actual growth rate of the US economy in 2020 is expected to be -5.9%. The depth of the recession is not only the highest since 1980, but also more than double the 2009 crisis period.