April manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, experts believe that-
The full-scale resumption of production has reached a critical period
Economic Daily · China Economic Net reporter Lin Huocan
In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that although the manufacturing production and operating conditions continued to improve from the previous month, the expansion efforts have weakened. Experts believe that the full-scale resumption of production and production has reached the key period, how to completely open up the plugging points, breakpoints and difficulties under the background of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, so that enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, can fully resume normal production and operation, and the economy will continue to rebound A good channel is the most urgent and important task facing us
On April 30, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index and the Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index were both above the gloom line, of which the Manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month; the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 53.2%, which was Monthly increase of 0.9 percentage points. The comprehensive PMI output index was 53.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
As the situation of prevention and control of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has further consolidated, the order of production and life in China has accelerated, and manufacturing and non-manufacturing production and operation activities continue to improve. Experts said that the full-scale resumption of production has reached a critical period. Under the background of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, efforts should be made to speed up the opening of plugging points, breakpoints and difficulties, accelerate the implementation of various measures to expand the domestic demand strategy, and release the demand of the ultra-large domestic market The potential drives the sales of enterprises to continue to pick up and the economy continues to pick up.
Manufacturing production gradually turns to normal
In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing production and operating conditions continued to improve from the previous month, but the expansion efforts have weakened.
"Although the manufacturing PMI fell from last month, it has been running on the gloomy line for two consecutive months, indicating that the economy has maintained its momentum of recovery." Wen Tao, an expert at the China Logistics Information Center, said.
Judging from the 13 sub-indices, compared with the previous month, the finished goods inventory index and the supplier's delivery time index rose by 0.2 and 1.9 percentage points respectively; the remaining indicators fell by 0.4 to 12.9 percentage points. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the PMI index of 9 industries such as food and alcoholic beverage refined tea and automobile manufacturing was higher than last month, and the PMI index of 12 industries such as textile, chemical raw material products, papermaking and printing was lower than last month.
Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in April, with the continued progress of resumption of production and production, manufacturing production activities continued to maintain a recovery momentum, with a production index of 53.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of labor demand, the employment index is 50.2%, and the labor force of enterprises has increased for two consecutive months.
As of April 25, among the national purchasing managers surveyed enterprises, the resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises was 98.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the March survey results, of which manufacturing was 99.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points. Among them, 77.3% of the enterprises had a recovery rate of more than 80% of the normal level, which was 9.4 percentage points higher than the previous month.
Currently, demand recovery is weaker than production. In April, the manufacturing new orders index was 50.2%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month and lower than the production index. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the index of new orders in 15 industries such as textiles, textiles and apparel, chemical raw materials and products was lower than the production index, and the industry demand recovery lags behind production.
"According to the survey results, 57.7% of the companies reflect the lack of orders, and some companies report weak market demand, product sales are facing difficulties, and order replenishment will take time." Zhao Qinghe also pointed out that at present, the outbreak of foreign diseases is accelerating and global Economic activity has contracted sharply, uncertainty in the import and export market has increased, and foreign trade is facing greater challenges. Some manufacturing companies reported a sharp decrease in newly signed export orders, and even orders that have already started production have been cancelled.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the PMI index fell slightly in April from March, but it is still on the line of gloom, indicating that the economy is still recovering. As the epidemic prevention and control situation improves, production activities gradually turn to normal, and PMI index changes will also stabilize.
Non-manufacturing industry continues to accelerate recovery
In April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.2%, which was 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month, in which construction and service industries both rose to varying degrees.
Among the individual indexes of China's non-manufacturing PMI, the new orders index, on-hand orders index, inventory index, employees index, supplier delivery time index, and business activity expectation index increased from last month, with an increase of 0.4 to 4.6 Percentage points; the new export order index, input price index, and sales price index decreased from last month, with a decrease of 0.4 to 3.1 percentage points.
From the perspective of the construction industry, in April, the business activity index of the construction industry was 59.7%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points from the previous month, of which the civil engineering construction industry was higher than the overall. From the perspective of labor demand and market expectations, the construction industry employment index and business activity expectation index were 57.1% and 65.4%, up 4.0 and 5.5 percentage points from the previous month, driven by policies such as the recovery of traditional infrastructure and the acceleration of new infrastructure. The resumption of production and production in the construction industry has accelerated significantly.
From the perspective of the service industry, the business activity index of the service industry was 52.1% in April, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 14 industries had a business activity index higher than 50.0%.
"Promoted by policies that promote the resumption of production and business, the resumption of business, the expansion of residents' consumption, and the increase in public consumption, business activities in most service industries have steadily recovered." Zhao Qinghe said that although the business activity index of the service industry has rebounded for two consecutive months, However, the resumption of production in some industries is still lagging behind. The industries such as accommodation, culture, sports, entertainment, and resident services have been greatly affected by the epidemic. The business activity index has been below 45.0% for three consecutive months. The production and operation of related enterprises are more difficult.
"In April, both business activity and new order indices continued to rise, and non-manufacturing industries continued to accelerate recovery." Cai Jin, deputy chairman of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that at present, basic people's livelihood consumption and infrastructure investment jointly drive the stable operation of the economy. In general, the non-manufacturing industry in the second quarter showed a momentum of accelerating the recovery of operations, which indicates that the basic trend of economic operation is improving.
Wu Wei, an expert from the China Logistics Information Center, also pointed out that from the data in April, with the domestic epidemic situation under basic control, the daily consumption activities of residents quickly recovered, and the accelerated promotion of the resumption of production and production of enterprises also brought an acceleration of related consumption. The basic people's livelihood consumption has recovered rapidly, and the role of the strategic base point for steady growth in domestic demand has become apparent. In addition, with the opening of the investment fast-forward button, it is conducive to the stable operation of the economy.
Accelerate the implementation of various measures to expand domestic demand
In April, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to resume. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, were 53.7% and 53.2%, respectively, a decrease from the previous month and a rise.
From the perspective of expectations, in April, the expected index of manufacturing production and operation activities was 54%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The fluctuation range was small, and the index was close to the average level last year, indicating that market expectations are relatively stable.
"The changes in the PMI index in April also indicate that the full-scale resumption of production has reached a critical period. How to completely open up the plugging points, breakpoints and difficulties under the background of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, so that enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, can fully resume normal production and operation It is the most urgent and most important task facing the economy to enter a continuous recovery path. "Zhang Liqun said that it is necessary to accelerate the implementation of various measures to expand domestic demand, release the demand potential of the ultra-large domestic market as soon as possible, and drive enterprise sales Continue to pick up and the economy continues to pick up.
Wen Tao said that on the basis of the obvious recovery in March, the current economic operation maintained a recovery momentum in April, and the market is expected to be basically stable. However, external pressure has increased significantly, and market prices have fallen, and should be given special attention. It is recommended to continue to implement the work of “six stability” and “six guarantees”, continue to actively expand domestic demand, take multiple measures to alleviate external pressure, and enhance the internal economic growth momentum.
"Overall, at the beginning of the second quarter, the non-manufacturing industry showed a momentum of accelerating the recovery of operations, which indicates that the basic trend of economic operation is improving." Wu Wei said that at present, the market demand base still needs to be consolidated, and small businesses are still returning to normal operations. Wait for time. Therefore, in the future economic operation, we should continue to expand domestic demand and stabilize the endogenous growth of market demand, and at the same time effectively ensure that the relevant support policies for small enterprises are in place to ensure their stable operation.