China-Singapore Jingwei client, April 28 (Feng Fang) at 24:00 today (28th), a new round of price adjustment windows for domestic refined oil will open. Many organizations believe that this round of oil price adjustment will run a high probability. At the same time, some analysts pointed out that domestic oil prices may continue to suspend adjustments in the short term.

  Data map: gas station. China-Singapore latitude and longitude photo

  International crude oil prices continue to weaken

  In this round of pricing cycle, the international crude oil market hit a "negative" history. On April 20th, in the final phase of the shifting month, the US crude oil staged many dramas. The price of the WTI May futures contract plummeted 305.97% to close at -37.63 USD / barrel, which fell into a negative value for the first time in history.

  External disk time April 24, affected by news of reduced oil production, international oil prices rose. As of the close of the day, WTI June crude oil futures prices rose 0.44 US dollars to close at 16.94 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.67%. June Brent crude oil futures prices rose 0.11 US dollars to close at 21.44 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.52%.

  On April 27th, Beijing time, international oil prices continued to fall. In the afternoon trading hours, WTI June crude oil futures prices fell below $ 15 / barrel, which fell sharply by more than 13%. As of 17:00 in the afternoon, WTI June crude oil futures prices fell 12.93% to 14.75 US dollars / barrel; Brent July crude oil futures prices fell 2.78% to 24.12 US dollars / barrel.

  Zhongyu Information judges that in the short term, the bottom of oil prices will continue to be repaired under the support of favorable production cuts, but the bulls' confidence is difficult to continue because of weak fundamentals and speculative bulls are eager to escape. Brent crude oil is facing the risk of changing the month. Although it is not believed that Brent will encounter similar financial trampling behavior of U.S. crude oil and fall into a negative value, the risk of a broad downward movement near the delivery is still greater.

  Domestic oil price adjustment or stranded again

  Jinlianchuang estimates that as of the ninth working day of the Japanese round pricing cycle on April 27, the average price of the reference crude oil was 17.68 US dollars per barrel, the rate of change was -29.26%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 940 yuan / ton, because The reference oil price is lower than the floor price of US $ 40 / barrel, so the price adjustment window for this round will not be opened.

  According to the “Petroleum Price Management Measures” issued in 2016, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel oil are adjusted every ten working days according to the changes in crude oil prices in the international market. When the price adjustment range is less than 50 yuan / ton, no adjustment will be made and will be accumulated or offset when the next price adjustment is included. In addition, the refined oil price mechanism sets upper and lower limits. When the international crude oil price to which domestic refined oil prices are attached is higher than US $ 130 / barrel, the retail price limit for gasoline and diesel will not be raised or will be reduced; The price limit is no longer lowered.

  The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client card found that since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone seven adjustments, showing a "zero rise, three falls and four stranding" pattern. The prices of gasoline and diesel have been reduced by 1,850 yuan / ton and 1,780 yuan / ton respectively. Among them, stranded on January 14 and March 3 were due to price adjustments of less than 50 yuan / ton, stranded on March 31 and April 15 were due to the floor price of the reference crude oil variety was lower than US $ 40 / barrel . If the price adjustment is stranded, the domestic refined oil prices will be stranded for the fifth time this year.

  For the market outlook, Jin Naichuang's refined oil analyst Jiang Na believes that there is no shortage of international crude oil futures prices that may continue to rise. Domestic oil prices may continue to halt in the short term, and the news has limited impact. In terms of supply, the current main refineries and Shandong local refineries have high start-up load, and the supply of gasoline and diesel resources is relatively abundant. Downstream demand will continue to maintain the weak situation of Chaiqiangqi in the short term. Although the May 1 holiday is approaching, it may be difficult for companies to stock up a lot before the holiday. On the whole, the fundamentals of market supply and demand are scarce, and it is expected that the market of gasoline and diesel will decline slightly in the short term.

  According to the "10 working days and one adjustment" principle, the next round of domestic oil price adjustment windows will open at 14:00 on May 14. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei app)

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