The rate of decline in growth has narrowed significantly, showing a trend of month-on-month recovery
Investment is expected to gradually come out of the trough (Ruijing · grasping epidemic prevention and promoting development (55))
In addition, 1 trillion yuan of local government special bond quotas were issued in advance, local plans to renovate 39,000 old urban communities, and newly build 500,000 5G base stations ... As one of the "troikas", there have been many new moves in investment recently. Relevant sources pointed out that with the support of policy support and the increase in investment project construction, investment is expected to gradually come out of the trough and become an important force to stabilize the economy.
Nearly 12,000 new projects started in March
In the first quarter of this year, investment activity slowed down significantly. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 841.4 billion yuan, down 16.1% year-on-year.
"Although the growth rate of investment has fallen more, the rate of decline has narrowed significantly, showing a trend of month-to-month recovery." Said Peng Yongtao, director of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.
Specifically, the decline in investment in the three major areas of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate development has narrowed to varying degrees. In the first quarter, infrastructure investment decreased by 19.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 10.6 percentage points from January to February; manufacturing investment decreased by 25.2%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points from January to February, of which equipment manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing The investment decline narrowed by 6.4 and 6.8 percentage points respectively; real estate development investment fell by 7.7%, which was 8.6 percentage points narrower than in January-February.
Investment in some areas of people's livelihood security and some high-tech areas has achieved growth. In the first quarter, investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 2.0%, investment in the livestock industry increased by 5.4%, investment in the poultry industry increased by 18.8%, investment in the biopharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 15.1%, and computers and office equipment Investment in manufacturing increased by 3.2%, investment in e-commerce services increased by 39.6%, investment in professional technology services increased by 36.7%, and investment in technology achievement transformation services increased by 17.4%.
“With the overall progress of the prevention and control of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and the achievements in economic and social development, some leading indicators in the investment operation have also shown positive signals.” Peng Yongtao introduced that from the perspective of new construction projects, there were 11998 new construction projects in March, compared with 1- In February, it increased by 9497; the total investment of newly started projects in the first quarter decreased by 25.1 percentage points from January to February. Looking at the non-manufacturing business activity index, the construction industry business activity index in March was 55.1%, up 28.5 percentage points from February, of which the civil engineering construction industry was 62.4%. From the month-on-month data, investment in March increased by 6.05% month-on-month, while in February it fell by 22.13% month-on-month.
Issued new special bonds exceeding 1.1 trillion yuan
How to expand effective investment? Local government special bonds have become an important force.
A few days ago, Gansu Province successfully issued the second batch of 3.75 billion yuan special toll highway bonds, plus the first batch issued in January this year, a total of 7.071 billion yuan, which promoted the accelerated construction of Gansu highway infrastructure.
Including Gansu, since the beginning of this year, the issuance and use of local government special bonds has further accelerated. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, the amount of new local government special bond quota of 1.29 trillion yuan has been issued ahead of schedule in early stage. As of April 15th, 1,1670.7 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued in various regions, mainly for new and under construction projects; , For new construction projects of 417.9 billion yuan, accounting for about 36%, for projects under construction 742.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 64%.
"The new special bonds issued in various places are all used for the construction of major infrastructure projects in the fields of transportation infrastructure such as railways and rail transportation, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, municipal and industrial park infrastructure," said Wang Kebing, first-level inspector of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance.
Wang Kebing introduced that he planned to issue another 1 trillion yuan of local government special bond quota in advance. At present, we are instructing all localities to map the specific bond quota to specific projects as soon as possible, organize the preparation for bond issuance, and strive to complete the issuance by the end of May, ensure early issuance, early use, and early results, and form a boost to the economy as soon as possible.
"Special debt can effectively solve the problem of insufficient capital investment in local infrastructure. This year's further increase in scale and accelerated issuance will help hedge the impact of the epidemic, drive social investment, and expand market demand." Niu Li, deputy director of the Economic Forecast Department of the National Information Center Our reporter said.
Resolutely implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand
"In the case of blocked external demand, we must firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand to provide support for stabilizing the economic fundamentals." Yan Pengcheng, director of the National Economic Integration Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that in expanding effective investment, the focus is on the short-term areas, especially Weaknesses exposed by epidemic prevention and control, speed up the construction of public health prevention and control and emergency medical treatment capacity, implement the transformation of old urban communities, vigorously promote the new urbanization construction with county as an important carrier, and promote the upgrading of environmental sanitation facilities 1. Upgrading of municipal public facilities, upgrading of public service facilities, expanding quality and efficiency of industrial supporting facilities, strengthening investment in traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure, promoting transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and expanding investment in strategic emerging industries.
Huang Yan, deputy minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, introduced that in 2019, 19,000 old urban communities will be renovated in various places, involving 3.52 million residents; in 2020, 39,000 old urban communities will be renovated in various places, involving nearly 7 million residents .
To strengthen investment in new infrastructure, 5G has become one of the key points. Some organizations estimate that by 2025, China's investment in 5G network construction will reach 1.2 trillion yuan; from 2020 to 2025, the total economic output directly driven by 5G commercials will reach 10.6 trillion yuan.
"We will continue to accelerate the construction of 5G networks." Wen Ku, director of the Information and Communication Development Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that as of the end of March, 198,000 5G base stations have been built nationwide, and 500,000 new 5G base stations are expected to be built this year.
Niu Li believes that to promote the expansion of effective investment, fiscal and monetary policies can work together to strengthen the pertinence of policy support, with particular emphasis on improving investment efficiency. "Next, investment is expected to gradually recover, and the growth rate will change from negative to positive, in which infrastructure investment may rebound faster."
Qiu Haifeng