- Affected by the brunt of the coronavirus epidemic, the aviation sector should take a long time to recover from the crisis. At least three years to regain the traffic level of 2019, according to Archery.
- Will the sector look like it was before the crisis? Not sure. Already weakened, it could be weakened even more by the price war that some companies say they are launching, with a view to accelerating the recovery of traffic.
- On the other hand, this branch should not escape major restructuring. Alain Battisti, president of Fnam, anticipates for example in the future "fewer planes, and undoubtedly smaller".
The coronavirus could reduce the number of passengers in the sky by 1.2 billion by September, estimated last Wednesday the International Civil Aviation Organization. A day later, the International Air Transport Association (Iata), representing the airlines, estimated that passenger demand in Europe would drop by 55% in 2020 compared to 2019 ...
The days of containment pass and the bleak outlook for the aviation sector follows. In a study published on April 9, the consulting firm Archery Strategy Consulting (ASC) estimates that it will take three years to regain the traffic level of 2019, from the most optimistic perspective. And ten years to return to the pre-crisis trajectory.
Restoring health confidence
The unknowns are indeed numerous. Even the gradual lifting of containment should not result in a rush in the planes. "We should expect an explosion in the unemployment rate worldwide, and therefore losses in purchasing power", begins Alain Battisti, president of the National Federation of Commercial Aviation (Fnam), which represents more 95% of air transport in France. Enough to lower demand for “leisure” flights.
The outlook is not much better for business flights, the other major segment of air transport, "which represent 25 to 30% of air passengers and more than half of airline revenues," recalls Alain Battisti. "The rise of remote meeting methods, which have been tested on a large scale during containment, should reduce the number of business trips," said economist Marc Ivaldi, president of the International Association of Transport Economists and professor at the Toulouse School of Economics. Nor is it certain that companies make their employees take risks by making them fly. "
This is the other big unknown from post-Covid-19. When will passengers feel safe enough, from a health point of view, to board a plane? Airlines are already working on the subject. Several hypotheses are on the table, from the disinfection of the apparatuses at each rotation to the wearing of the mask and compulsory gloves, while passing by the establishment of a health passport which would allow only the immunized people to be able to embark. For its part, the low cost company EasyJet intends to leave the seats in the middle of its aircraft empty to respect social distancing. "But this question of health security is not limited to the flight, it will also be necessary for passengers to feel safe where they wish to go," continues Alain Battisti. Airlines will have to be very honest on this point, by not sending their passengers to the puzzles. "
Price war or change of models?
Could extremely low prices accelerate the recovery of air traffic? This is the bet of Michaël O'Leary, boss of Ryanair, the Irish low cost company. Accustomed to shocking declarations *, the Irishman anticipates a rapid revival of air traffic boosted by a price war between airlines, once the confinements are lifted. Price war he intends to launch. And win. "Whether it's 9.99 euros, 4.99 euros, 1.99 euros or 99 cents per seat, we hardly care," he told Reuters in mid-April. Our main objective, in the short term, is not to make money, it will be to get our pilots and cabin crew back and have the planes back in the air. "
"Ryanair can afford to start this price war because it is one of the most profitable airlines today and has cash," says Marc Ivaldi. But for the others, yes, it could hurt. Many bankruptcies can be expected. " That's the game ? Each company plays with its strengths, essentially says the economist. "One may wonder why state aid would go mainly to large national companies, such as Air France [the company will benefit from a state loan of 7 billion euros]? The current crisis is the result of an unprecedented pandemic and not the fault of mismanagement on the part of companies. "
At Fnam, in any case, we say “ulcerated” by the words of Michaël O'Leary. "In light of the health, social and economic crisis we are going through, we need a little bit of serenity and solemnity to restart," calls Alain Battisti. Such announcements are shocking, especially since it comes from a rogue company that uses all the gray areas of social law. Before the crisis, the entire aviation sector had taken courageous steps to reduce its environmental impacts. A price war would take us away from these objectives. "" Such prizes give bad references to the public *, abounds Jean-Louis Barroux, creator of the World Air Transport Forum, annual meeting of aviation professionals, and author of several works on the subject. With such practices, the sector would remain in this race for volume which has characterized it since the mid-1970s, and which has led to many drifts. "
Towards fewer planes… and smaller ones?
The current crisis would be an opportunity to review this model. "A welcome idea would be for traditional airlines and low cost companies to finally find complementarity and not compete anymore," continues Jean-Louis Barroux. One could imagine that the former would leave the latter with links between European hubs and concentrate on long-haul flights. "
It remains to be seen whether these restructurings will be favorable for the climate. Yes for Alain Battisti. "We should have fewer planes tomorrow, and above all smaller and modernized," he says. Some "large" devices, probably too complicated to fill in the future, could even disappear from the fleets. However, it is also often the most polluting. "Lufthansa has already announced that it will phase out seven A340-600s and five Boeing 747-400s, two large-capacity aircraft," based on the environmental and economic disadvantages of these two aircraft, "said the German company in a statement. . Same thing for KLM. Because of the current crisis, it has prematurely separated from its Boeing 747 and plans to replace them with planes that consume less kerosene, indicated the specialized site aerobuzz at the end of March.
Also reduce the place of the air?
Sufficient? Not for the 250 unions and environmental NGOs of Stay Grounded. In a petition, at the beginning of April, the collective calls for the aid which the States will grant to the aviation sector not to be without environmental compensation. At the very least, it calls for the introduction of a tax on kerosene, the fuel used in aviation. More generally, these NGOs call on governments to deeply question the place of air travel in our societies. "The challenge is to eliminate domestic flights, starting with those for which a train alternative already exists, and investing now in these alternatives where they are still lacking," illustrates Sarah Fayolle, campaign manager Transports for Greenpeace France, in a press release.
The promise this Monday morning of Elisabeth Borne, Minister of the Ecological Transition, that the aid granted to Air France "would not be a blank check" did not reassure the NGOs. "For the moment, there is only question of voluntary commitments on the part of Air France, which is largely insufficient in the light of the 7 billion euros granted to the company," criticizes Greenpeace. Who deplores the absence of legal constraints or means of sanction if the company does not respect these commitments.
Economy
Coronavirus: The aviation sector will take three years to emerge from the crisis… at least
Planet
Will air transport escape a tax for a long time in the name of the fight against global warming?
* Michaël O'Leary said in the "Financial Times" last Thursday that he did not intend to leave the seat in the middle empty, a measure that airlines want to apply to ensure social distancing between passengers.
** Jean-Louis Barroux estimates around 50 euros the average price of an hour of flight which allows a company to recoup its costs.
- Crisis
- Plane
- Airline company
- Planet
- Confinement
- Transport
- Coronavirus