Affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, China's GDP in the first quarter was 206.54 trillion yuan, calculated at constant prices, down 6.8% from the same period last year. In terms of people's livelihood, with the gradual restoration of production and living order, the employment situation is generally stable, and there have been no large-scale layoffs across the country. In the first quarter, 2.29 million people were employed in cities and towns across the country. In March, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey was 5.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from February.
Objectively speaking, it is not easy to reach such data during the epidemic. Although the economic growth rate has slowed down, the entire industrial system has withstood the impact, and the basic livelihood of 1.4 billion people has been strongly guaranteed.
There is food in his hands, and he is not panicking. After the outbreak, in the face of the complicated situation of food security, the Party Central Committee reviewed the situation, responded correctly and effectively, and continuously issued targeted policies and measures to overcome the impact of the outbreak on spring tillage and spring sowing production to the greatest extent, ensuring the overall stability of the grain crop area this spring. The supply of agricultural materials is generally guaranteed. In the first quarter, the added value of agriculture (planting industry) increased by 3.5% year-on-year. At present, the climatic conditions in the main agricultural areas of the country are generally favorable, spring tillage and spring sowing are progressing smoothly, the overall growth of winter wheat is better than that of the previous year and normal years, and the summer grain harvest is promising.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and many enterprises and industries are facing unprecedented difficulties in their business development. At present, with the introduction of a series of policies and measures in various regions and departments, the resumption of production and production in the country is accelerating. As of April 15, the national SME resumption rate was 84%. From the perspective of industry, the resumption rate of the secondary industry is higher than that of the producer service industry, and the resumption rate of the producer service industry is higher than that of the daily service industry. From a regional point of view, the rate of resumption of work in various regions has shown a trend of parallel progress. The rate of resumption of work in 25 provinces has exceeded 80%. From the perspective of enterprise types, the resumption rate of "specialized and special" SMEs is higher than the overall level of SMEs.
The greater the difficulties faced by economic development, the more importance we must attach to cultivating and growing new momentum. After the epidemic occurred, online offices helped to resume work and resume production, cloud commercial cloud services facilitated social life, and intelligent manufacturing accelerated development, all of which was inseparable from the strong support of "new infrastructure". It can be said that accelerating the "new infrastructure" is the economic need and the general trend.
"New infrastructure" usually refers to the new infrastructure represented by 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and the Internet of Things, which is essentially an infrastructure for information digitization. After years of large-scale investment, the stock base of the traditional infrastructure sector has been very high, but "new infrastructure" is still in its infancy, and has a broad space for development. Some organizations estimate that by 2025, China's investment in 5G network construction will reach 1.2 trillion yuan. From 2020 to 2025, the total economic output directly driven by 5G commercial will reach 10.6 trillion yuan. With huge investment and demand on one end and an escalating consumer market on the other end, the "new infrastructure" is beneficial to hedge against the adverse effects of the epidemic and provides an important support point for effectively responding to economic downward pressure.
From the perspective of enterprise production methods, digital transformation can empower high-quality development of enterprises. During the epidemic, relying on its own extensive and in-depth digital transformation foundation, and using remote operation and maintenance technology based on big data and artificial intelligence, Baosteel turned the cold-rolled hot-dip galvanizing smart workshop of Baoshan Base into a 24-hour operation without requiring many people The on-duty "black lamp factory"; Foxconn's "light-extinguishing factory" is fully automated through the introduction of industrial Internet and intelligent manufacturing, and production can be completed without manual participation. Whether it is Foxconn or Baosteel, it can rely on digital transformation to be able to go upstream in a crisis. According to research estimates by relevant agencies, the proportion of digital transformation of Chinese enterprises is about 25%, far lower than that of 46% in Europe and 54% in the United States, and there is still much room for growth.
To overcome the epidemic, confidence is more precious than gold. Generally speaking, the impact of the epidemic on China's economy is within a tolerable level, and the fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth have not changed. The epidemic will always pass. We believe that after the storm, China's economy will be stronger and new worlds will surely be developed. (Qu Xiaodong, associate research fellow of Shaanxi Academy of Social Sciences and doctoral student of School of Public Administration of Northwest University)
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