(Economic Observation) The policy of loosening the property market in many places was withdrawn and China was determined not to take the "real estate stimulus road"

  China News Agency, Beijing, April 24 (Reporter Pang Wuji) The local real estate loosening policy has recently been withdrawn after the introduction of frequent policies. Jingzhou City, Hubei Province recently said that it decided to suspend the implementation of the new property market policy issued on the 18th. Its contents include reducing the down payment ratio for the first and second suites, and exempting the deed tax for a limited time. Industry insiders pointed out that this is the seventh city to be withdrawn after the introduction of the property market after the new policy was released. It clearly conveyed the central government's policy of "not following the old road" and "not stimulating real estate".

  A series of real estate support policies were introduced in Jingzhou City, Hubei Province on the 18th. It stipulates that the down payment ratio of a resident family when purchasing the first suite is not less than 20%; for a resident family who purchases a second suite and the loan of the first suite is outstanding, the down payment ratio is not less than 30%. Earlier, the mortgage policy implemented by Jingzhou City was that the down payment ratio for the purchase of the first suite was generally not less than 30%, and the down payment ratio for the second suite was generally not less than 50%.

  Only 4 days after the introduction of the policy, Jingzhou City stated on the official website that it decided to stop the implementation of this new real estate policy due to the inconsistency of some provisions with the provincial government documents. Huai'an, Jiangsu, has also been exposed a few days after it officially admitted that the purchase restriction was relaxed after a day. Recently, Qingdao, Haining, Guangzhou, Jinan, Baoji, Zhumadian and other cities have experienced a “one-day tour” or “several-day tour” of loosening real estate policies. For example, the one-day consumer housing purchase policy issued by Qingdao to relax the purchase limit and loan limit was only recovered for three days. In Guangzhou, the policy of "one-day tour" appears for the "cancellation of apartment restrictions".

  In fact, due to the impact of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, in the past two months, the transaction volume in China's multi-sector property market has fallen sharply, and the income from local land sales has also dropped significantly. In February alone, more than 60 cities issued different real estate support policies.

  Why were some local policies suspended after they were introduced? From the point of view of the withdrawal of the New Deal mentioned above, some of these cities have tried to reduce the down payment ratio, some have loosened restrictions on purchases in disguise, and some have tried to fully liberalize the restrictions on apartment purchases. Most of the released policies are focused on reducing the threshold for settlement through the talent policy and bailing out real estate companies.

  The industry pointed out that the key is whether the introduction of policies will cause great fluctuations in the local real estate market and whether it will have a demonstration effect on the national property market. Once the policy is too strong, triggering other places to follow suit, it is easy to re-establish the expectations of rising house prices. This is clearly contrary to the central tone of the central government's "no housing, no speculation" regulation.

  In the first quarter, China's GDP showed a rare negative growth, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%. However, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on the day of the announcement of the economic "One Quarterly Report" (17th) still emphasized the positioning of "no housing, no speculation". The industry generally believes that this means that even in the face of "unprecedented" challenges, the central government still shows its determination not to stimulate real estate and "not to go the old way."

  The recent escalation of supervision in real estate finance also confirms this attitude. A few days ago, the People's Bank of China Shenzhen Central Branch conducted a comprehensive investigation on the illegal inflow of mortgage loans from Shenzhen's real estate into the real estate market.

  Xiao Yuanqi, chief risk officer and spokesperson of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, also emphasized at a press conference on the 22nd that banks must monitor the flow of funds to ensure that the funds are used on the target when applying for loans. Must be resolutely corrected.

  On the 23rd, the Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China held a seminar on Shanghai real estate credit work, and it was strictly forbidden to use real estate as a risk mortgage, break through the credit policy requirements in disguise through personal consumption loans and operating loans, and provide funds to buyers in violation of the rules.

  Both Shenzhen and Shanghai have experienced rapid recovery in real estate market transactions since March.

  "Asymmetric interest rate cuts" also reflect official vigilance against housing price rebounds and real estate financial risks. On April 20, the latest loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) was announced. Among them, the 1-year LPR was lowered from 4.05% to 3.85%, down by 20 basis points; LPR, which is mainly for mortgages, was lowered from 4.75% to 4.65% over 5 years. Only 10 basis points down.

  According to Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, under the epidemic, the strict real estate policies in the past should be adjusted, especially in line with the principle of "no housing, no speculation", and there may be some support policies for rigid needs and improving needs, but Loosening policies, including down payment, etc., are likely to stimulate demand and easily lead to market volatility.

  The local government's policy for the city is the proper meaning of real estate regulation. However, Zhang Dawei believes that if it is tested frequently, it will be withdrawn at will after the introduction of policies, which will cause certain interference to market signals. (Finish)