(Economic Observation) Records of the "epidemic" of economic wars: European economy begins to thaw China-EU economic and trade recovery still has a long way to go
China News Agency, Beijing, April 24 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) As the epidemic situation improved, the European economy that had been shut down for a long time began to "thaw." However, Beijing scholars believe that China-EU economic and trade exchanges still face multiple challenges to fully recover.
The recent epidemic situation in many European countries has been brought under control, and the resumption of various economic activities that were previously suspended has been put on the agenda. Some industries such as construction and manufacturing in Spain have resumed work; Germany has also taken the first step of "unblocking", allowing shops under 800 square meters to resume business; in Italy, the number of new cured cases exceeded the number of newly diagnosed cases for the first time. The government It is actively storing anti-epidemic materials to prepare for the resumption of economic activities; all stores in Austria will reopen from May 1st, and the government will continue to introduce specific plans to relax restrictions and resume work and resume production, and guide society to gradually resume normal operations.
As China's important economic and trade cooperation partner, the European economic restart will bring benefits to China-EU trade and investment.
Tang Zheng, vice chairman and secretary general of the European Commission of the China-Europe Economic and Technical Cooperation Association, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Service that China's consumer demand suppressed by the epidemic is gradually being released. After the European epidemic stabilizes, companies will also increase a large number of orders. The supply chain will gradually recover. In this case, the two-way investment between China and Europe will likely have a V-shaped rebound.
Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, also said that the relaxation of restrictions on economic activities in many European countries shows signs of recovery in foreign demand. For Chinese foreign trade companies that had previously cancelled a large number of European orders, this meant "seeing the dawn."
However, China-EU trade and investment will still be a long process from the "early dawn" to a full recovery.
Although the European epidemic has gradually stabilized, as the Special Commissioner of Italy's New Corona Virus Emergency Committee, Al Curry, said that the virus "has not been defeated, nor has it been eliminated", and we cannot relax our vigilance.
Thomson, the head of the European Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that if the epidemic returns and the European economic sector shuts down again, the European economic recovery will be delayed.
Whether greater progress can be made in the prevention and control of the epidemic, and the spread of the situation is crucial to the European economic recovery and the prospects for China-EU economic and trade cooperation.
Even if the epidemic situation is controlled, it is difficult for demand to have a "retaliatory rebound" in the short term. According to a report released by German market research agency JFK on the 23rd, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, the leading index of German consumer confidence in May was -23.4 points, a month-on-month drop of 25.7 points, a historically low value. Under this circumstance, the orders previously lost by Chinese companies may not come back immediately.
"The decline in local market demand will bring huge challenges to Chinese companies' trade and investment in Europe. Whether it is to develop new business projects or sign new orders, it will be plagued by insufficient demand." Zhao Ping said.
More notably, due to excessive regulations, the business environment in European countries has declined in recent years, which has cooled the enthusiasm of Chinese companies to invest in Europe. Analysts believe that this unreasonable regulation may have a more profound impact on China-EU economic and trade cooperation than the epidemic.
According to a World Bank report, the business environment ranking of 17 EU member states declined in 2019 from the previous year.
According to the latest EU Business Environment Report 2019/2020 released by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, many Chinese companies report that the “hidden” investment faced by Chinese companies in the EU is affected by factors such as the continuous enhancement of foreign investment review by the EU and some member states "Barriers" are increasing, leading to rising costs and increased risks. In 2019, only 24% of Chinese companies surveyed were willing to use the EU as their primary investment destination, compared with 79% in 2018.
Zhao Ping said that when the economy is facing unprecedented impact, the EU should face up to the positive role of Chinese companies in the development of the EU economy, adhere to open cooperation, eliminate all kinds of implicit discrimination, and protect Chinese companies in market access, government procurement, and project applications In other respects, they enjoy the same treatment as EU companies. This is the only way that is really beneficial to the European economy. (Finish)