China-Singapore Jingwei client, April 25 (Dong Xiangyi) A few days ago, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 31 provinces recorded a negative year-on-year growth in the first quarter, with a drop of more than 20% in 14 places, while Hunan and Anhui , Jiangxi and other 15 provinces "outperform" the growth rate of the country. Hubei, which has a severe epidemic situation, fell 44.9% year-on-year, ranking the bottom in the country.

New latitude and longitude in the data map

　　14 places drop by more than 20%

　　Total retail sales of consumer goods in society refers to the amount of physical goods sold by enterprises or units to individuals, social groups for non-production and non-business purposes, and the amount of income obtained by providing catering services. Generally speaking, observing the consumption situation in various markets mainly depends on this indicator.

　　Affected by the sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the consumer goods market declined significantly in the first quarter. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to March, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 785.8 billion yuan, a nominal decrease of 19.0% year-on-year.

　　Among them, the year-on-year decrease of 15.8% in March, after deducting price factors, actually decreased by 18.1%. Although the decline in March narrowed by 4.7 percentage points from January to February, compared with fixed asset investment and other data, the decline was still deep.

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 31 provinces showed negative growth, and the decline in 14 places exceeded 20%, while the growth rate of 15 provinces was stronger than the national level. Among them, Hunan (-11.5%) and Anhui (-11.9%) ), Jiangxi (-11.9%), Fujian (-12.5%), Guizhou (-13%), Sichuan (-13%), Gansu (-13%), Yunnan (-14.3%), Zhejiang (-14.7%) , Guangxi (-15.2%), Shandong (-15.2%), Hebei (-16.3%), Ningxia (-16.5%), Jiangsu (-18.1%), Chongqing (-18.6%).

　　"Since the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, residents have significantly reduced their outing shopping and dining activities, which will have a greater impact on the consumer market in the short term." Lin Tao, director of the Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed the situation.

　　Huang Dazhi, a senior researcher at Suning Financial Research Institute, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that the epidemic has reduced people's consumption and awakened residents' sense of crisis. In the choice of investment, consumption and savings, more funds are inclined to save. In order to better cope with future uncertainties, the total retail sales of social consumer goods consumed by residents fell sharply.

　　Wang Jun, a member of the Academic Committee of the China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that the slow recovery in consumption is mainly due to the general social isolation and travel restrictions caused by the epidemic, which has directly affected economic activities, especially the basic offline consumption activities of residents. Such as offline retail, catering, cultural entertainment, tourism, transportation, housekeeping services, etc.

　　Catering industry becomes a "severely hit area"

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei client noted that from the perspective of consumption type, the retail sales of commodities in the first quarter was 725.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%; catering revenue was 602.6 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 44.3% year-on-year, indicating that the operation of the catering industry is extremely optimistic "Severely hit areas" affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic.

　　Although the performance of consumer data in the first quarter was weak, there was no lack of bright spots. The data shows that the online retail sales of physical commodities increased by 5.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, which further promoted consumption. In addition, the online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 23.6% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase of 5.4 percentage points from the same period last year.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics website

　　Lin Tao analyzed and believed that the "house economy" drove the rapid development of new consumption and triggered the growth of the digital economy, platform economy, network economy and information economy. During the epidemic prevention period, home consumer demand increased substantially. At the same time, in response to the impact of the epidemic, offline companies actively explored online sales, and Internet sales grew against the trend.

　　Out of concerns about the uncertainty of the epidemic, residents have increased their purchases of food and pharmaceutical products. The data shows that in the commodity retail classification, a total of three categories of commodities recorded a positive year-on-year increase in retail sales in The food category increased by 12.6% year-on-year; the beverage category increased by 4.1% year-on-year; the Chinese and Western medicine categories increased by 2.9% year-on-year.

　　Future consumption will gradually stabilize and pick up

　　In this "troika" that drives economic growth, consumption has contributed greatly. What will happen to the consumption situation after the epidemic situation in China has improved?

　　Mao Shengyong, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that as the order of production and life gradually returned to normal, some consumption behaviors that were suppressed in the early stage would be compensated to a certain extent in the later stages, and consumption would gradually stabilize and rebound.

　　Lin Tao emphasized that the basic conditions for the stable development of China's consumer market have not changed, and the good situation of structural optimization, transformation and upgrading will continue.

　　Sheng Songcheng, executive deputy director of the China Europe Continental Jiazui International Finance Research Institute, believes that the epidemic has affected the income of domestic residents, not only impacting the consumption in the first quarter, but also affecting the subsequent consumption throughout the year. In the first quarter, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide fell by 3.9% year-on-year. Therefore, while striving to promote consumption and international trade, investment will play a more important role in China's economic growth this year. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei app)