(Economic Observation) The United States and Japan said that they would move the supply chain, and how would they affect the "world factory"?
China News Agency, Beijing, April 21 (Reporter Liu Yuying) If the United States and Japan will move their factories in China back to their home countries, will it shake China's status as a "world factory"? Expert analysis believes that China is still very competitive as a "world factory" in terms of market, supporting capacity, and cost.
Recently, Japan ’s economic stimulus plan allocated 2.2 billion US dollars to encourage the return of key industries and support the transfer of some industries to Southeast Asia. American politicians suggested that the government "pay the bill" to help companies "return to the United States" from China.
In this regard, Li Ke Aobo, executive deputy dean of the China Institute of Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, said that if the factory in China is moved back, even if the relocation cost is subsidized, the real cost of the enterprise is "future profits."
At present, China has become the world's largest consumer country in many technical fields. According to a recent China report released by McKinsey, in 2017, China's mobile phone sales accounted for 40% of global sales, electric vehicle sales accounted for 64%, and semiconductor consumption accounted for 46%. Considering the huge capacity of the Chinese market, it is now more and more difficult to leave China.
As a "world factory", China's industrial and transportation facilities are difficult to find alternatives in other countries. For example, 1/3 of the world's swimwear is produced in Huludao City, Liaoning Province, Huangqiao Town, Taixing City, Jiangsu Province is the world's largest violin production base, and Nantong City, Jiangsu Province is China's largest home textile production base.
Han Jianfei, director of the Industrial Development Research Office of CCID Think Tank ’s Industrial Economics Institute, said that in fact, multinational companies such as Siemens and Schneider have already achieved flexible supply chain management. One accessory can be processed simultaneously in China, Vietnam, India, Mexico, etc. The Chinese factory received more orders because of China's strong supporting capabilities and high overall efficiency.
In addition, China has mature industrial workers, many of whom have undergone more than 5 years of training. Rick Ober believes that the replacement of industrial workers, transportation and supporting facilities will take a very long time.
According to a study on manufacturing costs conducted by CCID think tanks in recent years, developed countries such as the United States, Germany, Japan, and South Korea are much higher in labor costs than China, but in other respects are lower than or comparable to China; India, Emerging economies such as Brazil also face tremendous pressure in terms of financing costs and tax burden costs, and their labor costs have an advantage over China; countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam are much higher than China in logistics costs, and lower than China in other aspects Not big.
Han Jianfei said that although the cost of manufacturing in China is rising, China's comprehensive development advantages are still very competitive considering the supporting capabilities, the quality of industrial workers, production efficiency, and business environment.
A recent survey also showed that the dependence of the world economy on China is increasing. McKinsey China reported that in the three dimensions of trade, technology and capital, the world ’s comprehensive dependence index on China ’s economy gradually increased from 0.4 to 1.2 from 2000 to 2017, while China ’s dependence index on the world economy reached The highest point, 0.9, fell to 0.6 by 2017.
The occurrence of this epidemic has affected the global industrial chain. Ralf Seifert, director of the digital supply chain management course program at the Swiss IMD Business School, said, "Global trade relations have always been driven by political and economic interests. The new crown epidemic has not changed this fact." He believes that the current crisis will not bring the end of globalization, but it may indeed bring some adjustments to the current globalization situation.
The Chinese experts interviewed believe that we should pay close attention to the adjustment of the global supply chain layout in the future, but unless extreme circumstances occur, the status of China's "world factory" will not be shaken. (Finish)