(Fighting against New Coronary Pneumonia) China's economic war "epidemic" record: Will China's economy achieve a V-shaped rebound?
China News Service, Beijing, April 21 (Reporter Chen Suo) In the first quarter, the Chinese economy hit by the epidemic experienced a deep decline. Looking ahead, is the Chinese economy expected to achieve a V-shaped rebound? How should policies be used? In the 127th "Economic Monthly Talks" of China International Economic Exchange Center, the participating experts conducted a intensive discussion and forecast.
Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the China National Information Center, said that from the first quarter data, the Chinese economy has been repaired after March, showing signs of a V-shaped rebound. It is expected that the economic growth in April will rebound further from March. There is a great relationship. Due to the uncertainty of foreign trade, the monthly trend is likely to be a W-shaped rebound. Overall, the Chinese economy will gradually rebound upwards in the later period.
Wang Yiming, the former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council of China, said that many economic indicators improved in March, showing the strong resilience and impact resistance of the Chinese economy, but it is still difficult to draw the conclusion that "the Chinese economy has entered a steady recovery channel." The Chinese economy is also facing great external risks and the impact of shrinking external demand. Exports in the second quarter are likely to decline further. Small and medium-sized foreign trade companies are facing the risk of failure, further affecting employment, residents' income, consumption, and investment, which pose a great negative impact on the Chinese economy. Feedback shock. In addition, the Chinese economy is also faced with adverse effects such as the interruption of supply chains in major European and American economies, the rising trend of de-sinization of global supply chains, and changes in the global governance environment.
"The second wave of the global epidemic impact on the Chinese economy is not necessarily less than the first impact of the epidemic." Wang Yiming said that the Chinese economy may not be able to recover as strongly as before. Whether the Chinese economy can recover depends on the global epidemic. Whether the second quarter can be controlled, if the global epidemic further deteriorates, and feedback to China, the Chinese economy will also face great uncertainty.
Faced with external uncertainties, what measures should China take to achieve a stable economic recovery?
Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that at present, it is necessary to maintain greater macro-policy efforts to better coordinate fiscal and monetary policies. On the domestic front, we should adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand, truly translate the policy into effective demand, and continue to play the role of urbanization in expanding demand, such as the resettlement of homeless people, the construction of water and garbage treatment facilities, and the expansion of rural car consumption. Internationally, in the face of the tendency to de-sinization of global supply chains, it is necessary to stabilize the supply chains in East Asia and Southeast Asia through the signing of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) and other cooperation methods, while better playing the role of the “Belt and Road” initiative.
Zhu Baoliang said that policy formulation should proceed from the most important contradictions and problems in the current Chinese economy. For example, China is facing greater employment pressure, including the difficulty of returning migrant workers, foreign trade enterprises facing irrecoverable jobs, and 13 million secondary school students Problems such as the employment of university students; fiscal and financial difficulties, especially the outstanding financial difficulties of the municipal and county governments, the deterioration of corporate balance sheets and household balance sheets, and the increased financial risks of non-performing loans of small and medium-sized banks.
Chen Wenling, chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the most urgent thing in China at present is to handle domestic affairs well. When the international epidemic situation is still severe, the first is to prevent the rebound of the imported epidemic situation, and the second is to prevent the impact and the predation. At present, the US dollar accelerates printing, releases a large amount of US dollar liquidity, and acquires world commodity equity. Accelerate the establishment of a foreign investment security law to prevent it from becoming a spillway area for US dollar banknotes, and at the same time make a pre-plan to respond to the transfer crisis and economic blackmail.
Wang Yiming said that the current macroeconomic policies should be used to hedge the impact of the epidemic, including increasing fiscal policy to help SMEs reduce financing costs, fully tap domestic consumer demand, and actively expand effective investment, especially in improving people's livelihood, transformation and upgrading To put the protection of enterprises, employment and people ’s livelihood at a key position, we must accelerate the supply chain of the industrial chain supply chain, accelerate domestic substitution, reduce dependence on foreign supply chains, and further deepen reform and opening up. "China has a quarter time difference compared to other countries' economic recovery. It has won time for China to formulate and implement a package of macro policies, which needs to be accelerated and studied." (End)